It's Post Time
GOMEZ OPTS FOR THE NILE
As I see it, Pioneerof the Nile will be the one draped in roses on the first Saturday in May. If he is, Pioneerof the NIle will be the fourth Kentucky Derby winner trained by Bob Baffert, who deservedly enters the Hall of Fame this year.
I also think Pioneerof the Nile might sweep the Triple Crown. So obviously I believe that Ron Anderson and the jockey that he books engagements for, two-time Eclipse Award winner Garrett Gomez, have made the right move to ride Pioneerof the Nile and not Dunkirk in the May 2 Kentucky Derby, a decision first announced by Anderson last Sunday morning on HRTV’s “RaceDay America” program.
I certainly see this as a positive for Pioneerof the Nile, especially since he seems a bit tricky to ride due to his tendency to loaf once he gets in front, a la Buckpasser and Ferdinand. If Pioneerof the Nile is as good as I think he is, he still would be able to win the Kentucky Derby with someone other than Gomez riding him. But it’s just as well not to have to put that theory to the test.
As I wrote last week, I guessed that Gomez would opt for Dunkirk. But Pioneerof the Nile now will run in the Kentucky Derby with Gomez, a jockey who is very familiar with the colt. Not only that, to see Gomez choose Pioneerof the Nile over someone as talented as Dunkirk is quite an endorsement.
Gomez has collaborated with Pioneerof the Nile to reel off victories in the Grade I CashCall Futurity, Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Grade II San Felipe Stakes and Grade I Santa Anita Derby.
Dunkirk won a Gulfstream Park allowance race and finished second in the Grade I Florida Derby with Gomez in the irons.
Anderson has been an agent for 36 years, his clients including Fernando Toro, Chris Antley, Gary Stevens and Jerry Bailey before Gomez.
For The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin quoted Anderson as saying:
“I’ve made a lot of big decisions with Gary, Jerry and Chris, and most decisions for me are very black and white. But this decision for me was absolutely, positively one of the toughest ones I can ever remember. It all came down to the fact that [Gomez has] won four graded stakes in a row on Pioneerof the Nile. That was the deciding factor.
“I’ve talked to Todd [Pletcher], Bob [Baffert] and Garrett at length, and I have to admit I was very, very confused. Garrett has a huge amount of confidence in both of them. It’s not like he told me this one is better than that one. There’s upside in both of them.”
Gomez is zero for five in the Kentucky Derby.
“I would do anything to have Garrett win this Derby,” Anderson added. “I think he deserves it. So, whether it’s Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert or the man in the moon, I’ve got to make sure I’m on the right horse.”
Gomez addressed his decision at his NTRA Blog.
“For the Belmont Stakes a couple of years ago,” Gomez wrote last Sunday, “I made a decision between two horses. We had already picked up the mount on Hard Spun, and it was kind of a last-minute decision that Todd [Pletcher] was going to run Rags to Riches. We could have bailed on Larry Jones, but that would have been the wrong thing to do and not very respectful. We try to be very honorable with our call, and it wasn’t like Hard Spun wasn’t a good horse to get on anyway. He was a top competitor that year.”
As I predicted, Rags to Riches won the Belmont, edging Curlin in a stretch battle for the ages. When opportunity knocked, it was John Velazquez instead of Gomez on Rags to Riches when she made history by becoming the first filly to win the Belmont since Tanya in 1905.
“It’s not a thing you can second-guess and say ‘would have, could have, should have,’ ” Gomez wrote. “Hopefully, the decision we made this year will be one we don’t look back on in that way.
“As I said before, I’ve won two Grade I races and two Grade II races on Pioneerof the Nile, four in a row on him, and he’s done nothing wrong. I heard this morning that he galloped at Churchill Downs and traveled well across the surface -- now running [in a race] is a different matter -- but he’s competing well and has the ability to do what he needs to do in the Derby as long as he likes the dirt.”
Based on his pedigree, Pioneerof the Nile should be proficient on the dirt. He’s by Empire Maker, a son of Unbridled. On the dirt, Empire Maker won the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes and finished second in the Kentucky Derby. On the dirt, Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Pioneerof the Nile’s dam is Star of Goshen, a daughter of Lord at War. On the dirt, Star of Goshen won the La Troienne Stakes by 11 lengths at Churchill Downs. On the dirt, Lord at War won the Santa Anita Handicap.
“[Pioneerof the Nile] is by Empire Maker, and his dam’s side has been nothing but good on the dirt,” Gomez wrote. “So I don’t see why he would be any different. When he ran in the CashCall Futurity, that’s where he ran the fastest and that’s where I Want Revenge ran one of his best races, and that was at Hollywood Park where the surface is closer to dirt than any of the other synthetic tracks in California. That was a really good race. He ran well for me, and I’m excited to see what’s going to happen because I feel he’s going to be fine on the dirt. But it was definitely one of the factors that made the decision a little more difficult, since Dunkirk proved he’s comfortable running on the dirt. That’s one of the things that had me leaning towards him, because Pioneerof the Nile is still a question mark. But hopefully [Pioneerof the Nile] does well on it and we move ahead.”
When Pioneerof the Nile worked five furlongs on the dirt Tuesday at Churchill Downs, he evidently made a believer out of Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch. This, to me, is significant.
Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News has written that he does not like Pioneerof the Nile’s chances to win the roses. Jerardi also wrote earlier this month that he did like Quality Road at that time, reserving the right to change his mind based on the racing during the rest of the month and what he called “Derby week training.”
Jerardi wrote: “I am not smart enough or sharp enough to be able to follow all that is going on that week. But I do read and I do listen. I suggest you do the same. Mike Welsch’s Derby Week observations are invaluable. In fact, they have been so good the last few years that I see a slice of Derby Pie (on me) in his future. Some observers just see positives. Mike sees positives and negatives.
“Coming into the 2006 Derby, it looked relatively close on paper. Barbaro’s training tripped the scales his way. Ditto Street Sense in 2007. Both colts responded with breathtaking runs to the finish line.”
We are not quite to Derby week yet, but I wonder if Jerardi and others will indeed pay heed to what Welsch had to say following Pioneerof the Nile’s first Churchill Downs drill Tuesday.
Kentucky Derby candidates Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, Flying Private and Flat Out all worked Tuesday at Churchill Downs. Pioneerof the Nile “was the star of the day,” according to Welsch.
Welsch, who timed Pioneerof the Nile in 1:13.52 for six furlongs, wrote: “Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile’s ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break. With exercise rider Joe Steiner aboard, Pioneerof the Nile showed off his long, smooth stride while going effortlessly from start to finish, cutting out a series of 12-second eighth-mile splits without urging before finishing up with good energy to the wire and around the turn. He then proceeded to gallop out strongly down the backstretch before pulling up near the three-eighths pole. The final time might have been a bit misleading because of the somewhat tiring nature of the racetrack and the fact he worked without company. But make no mistake, Pioneerof the Nile has the look of a horse coming up to the Derby in peak form.”
Pioneerof the Nile was officially credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5. I Want Revenge’s official time for his five-furlong work was 1:01 3/5. Jockey Joe Talamo was aboard I Want Revenge for trainer Jeff Mullins.
Welsch clocked I Want Revenge in 1:01.62. I Want Revenge worked in company with the Mullins-trained Gato Go Win. According to Welsch, I Want Revenge “broke off a couple of lengths behind” Gato Go Win. I Want Revenge “finished up a neck in front under very little urging at all, and no pressure, and then galloped out okay around the turn. I would have liked to have seen him gallop out a little better. He went [six furlongs] in 1:15 1/5. All in all, not a bad work for I Want Revenge, an improvement over his previous work here.”
Chocolate Candy’s official time for his one-mile work was 1:42, going from the seven-eighths pole to the seven-eighths pole with jockey Mike Smith aboard.
Welsch wrote of Chocolate Candy’s workout: “Jockey Mike Smith flew in from California for this work, which was very important considering Chocolate Candy has never raced or even breezed over dirt. Chocolate Candy began at an even clip, posting fractions of :24.79, :49.77 and 1:14.96 for the opening quarter, half, and six furlongs, but began to labor some nearing the wire and around the turn back to where he began at the seven-furlong marker. Completed his final quarter in a moderate :27.10 before galloping out 1 1/8 miles in 1:57.23. Was a tired horse at the end but must take into account the fact he was working over a relatively deep track. Should have gotten plenty of foundation out of this move.”
WHO HAS DUNKIRK DEFEATED?
Pioneerof the Nile heads into the Kentucky Derby as a multiple Grade I winner, while Dunkirk is not even a stakes winner. Dunkirk is attempting to become one of the rare Kentucky Derby winners to have not previously won a graded stakes race.
Since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973, only Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 won the Kentucky Derby without previously winning a graded stakes race. And Alysheba did finish first in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes only to be disqualified and placed third.
Dunkirk also is attempting to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby without have raced as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Many have said that this does not bother them because training and racing have changed so much in recent years.
I agree that training and racing have changed. Horses do not race as frequently these days. But if it doesn’t matter anymore that a horse has any racing experience as a 2-year-old, then shouldn’t we have seen a Kentucky Derby winner or two or three in recent years who did not race at 2? Instead, 126 straight Kentucky Derby winners have raced at 2. It surprises me that so many knowledgeable people can cavalierly dismiss 126 years of evidence as if it means absolutely nothing.
What about Curlin? He didn’t race at 2. Did he win the Kentucky Derby? No. As talented as he was, Curlin didn’t even finish second. He ran third.
There is additional evidence to suggest that Gomez made the right call to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead of Dunkirk in the Run for the Roses.
When Dunkirk won a 1 1/8-mile allowance race by 4 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 19, he was very impressive because of an extremely wide trip. But how strong was that field? The 10 starters in that race are a combined zero for eight since then.
Now let’s examine the quality of the field when Pioneerof the Nile won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 7. Starters from the Lewis have gone on to:
--win Golden Gate’s King Glorious Handicap on Feb. 28 (Charlie’s Moment).
--win the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 14 (Pioneerof the Nile).
--win the Grade III Gotham Stakes on March 7 (I Want Revenge).
--win the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 4 (Pioneerof the Nile).
--win the Grade I Wood Memorial on April 4 (I Want Revenge).
--win the Grade II Arkansas Derby (Papa Clem).
--win a Santa Anita allowance race on April 19 (Oil Man).
What about the quality of the field when Dunkirk won his career debut against 11 rivals by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 24? Not one of those 11 rivals has gone on to win a stakes race.
Since that Jan. 24 race, Dunkirk’s 11 rivals have won five of 22 starts (four maiden races and one allowance race).
I think most people will agree that Theregoesjojo is the best horse Dunkirk has defeated. When Dunkirk finished second in the Florida Derby, Theregoesjojo ended up third. Theregoesjojo, who subsequently ran ninth in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, has never won a stakes race.
In fact, Dunkirk has defeated exactly zero horses who have won a graded stakes race either before or after he ran against them. The only stakes winner he’s ever defeated is Stately Character. Stately Character, who finished fourth in the Florida Derby, won the ungraded Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder last Sept. 27.
On the other hand, Pioneerof the Nile has defeated 10 who have won graded stakes races in the U.S. or group races in Europe before or since he ran against them: Advice, Azul Leon, Bittel Road, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, Silent Valor and West Side Bernie, plus Bushranger (a Group I winner in both England and France and a Group III winner in Ireland).
Pioneeerof the Nile also has defeated three who went on to become ungraded stakes winners: Charlie’s Moment, Flashman’s Papers and Notonthesamepage.
While I feel it’s unlikely that Dunkirk will win the Kentucky Derby, I do respect Florida Derby winner Quality Road.
Quality Road, unlike Dunkirk, ran as a 2-year-old. And not only did Quality Road run at 2, he ran fast. He won his career debut by 2 3/4 lengths at Aqueduct on Nov. 29 while earning a strong 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
By winning the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Quality Road is far ahead of Dunkirk in terms of having defeated quality opponents. Three of Quality Road’s Fountain of Youth opponents posted subsequent stakes wins: Capt. Candyman Can (Grade III Bay Shore), This Ones for Phil (Grade II Swale through the disqualification of Big Drama) and Bee Cee Cee (Tampa Bay Downs’ Sophomore).
Also finishing behind Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth were two who had previously won graded stakes races (Beethoven and Breakwater Edision) and three who had previous won stakes races (Notonthesamepage, Jack Spratt and Taqarub).
The quality in terms of what Pioneeerof the Nile and Quality Road have beaten and what Dunkirk has beaten is like the difference between night and day. It’s just one of the reasons Quality Road is ranked much higher than Dunkirk on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. Here is this week’s list:
1. Pioneer of the Nile
2. I Want Revenge
3. Quality Road
4. Papa Clem
5. Chocolate Candy
6. Friesan Fire
7. Musket Man
8. Desert Party
9. General Quarters
10. Dunkirk
STRIKES FOR THE CANDIDATES
In 1999, I came up with various key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a tactical and historical standpoint. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike. When a horse gets three or more strikes, I toss them out. That’s because since I developed this system, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes.
Here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had going back to 1999:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (1 strike)
2007 Smart Sense (1 strike)
2008 Big Brown (2 strikes)
Here are how many strikes a number of this year’s possible Kentucky Derby starters have:
ZERO STRIKES
Chocolate Candy
Desert Party
General Quarters
Musket Man
Papa Clem
Pioneerof the Nile
ONE STRIKE
Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge
Quality Road
Regal Ransom
Square Eddie
West Side Bernie
TWO STRIKES
Mr. Hot Stuff
Take the Points
Win Willy
THREE STRIKES
Dunkirk
Hold Me Back
Flying Private
Join in the Dance
FOUR STRIKES
Advice
Atomic Rain
Summer Bird
FIVE STRIKES
Flat Out
Here are my 10 key Kentucky Derby factors, with the horse or horses getting a strike listed below in each category:
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
Advice, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird each get a strike.
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
This is one of Dunkirk’s strikes. Advice, Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Flying Private, Mr. Hot Stuff, Join in the Dance, Summer Bird and Take the Points also each get a strike.
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 44 of the last 46 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
Advice, Flat Out, Flying Private, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff and West Side Bernie each get a strike.
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Flying Private, Join in the Dance and Mine That Bird each get a strike.
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
Advice, Atomic Rain, Flat Out, Friesan Fire, Mine That Bird, Join in the Dance, Take the Points and Win Willy each get a strike.
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 have been the only exceptions. Grindsone, Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
Dunkirk, Flat Out, Hold Me Back, Quality Road, Regal Ransom, Summer Bird and Win Willy each get a strike.
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3.)
This is the one strike for I Want Revenge. A strike is a strike, but I consider this rather inconsequential in the case of I Want Revenge because he added blinkers for his first 2009 race and subsequently won his next two races. So this isn’t a case of tinkering at the last minute on the part of trainer Jeff Mullins. Nevertheless, if I Want Revenge does win the Kentucky Derby, the fact remains he will be the first to do so having added blinkers in a race at 3 before the Derby.
Atomic Rain also gets a strike in this category.
8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
This is another strike for Dunkirk. Summer Bird also gets a strike in this category. Since 1955, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 44 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Strodes Creek (second in 1994) and Curlin (third in 2007).
9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
Mine That Bird gets a strike.
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 61 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 58 have failed. The only exceptions since Jet Pilot in 1947 were Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008.)
Hold Me Back, Mine That Bird and Square Eddie each get a strike.
PLAYOFF SYSTEM QUALIFIERS
As noted in this column two weeks ago, Tim Osterman of Today’s Racing Digest has proposed a “playoff” system for the Kentucky Derby employing a dozen traditional preps as qualifiers.
The 12 races Osterman listed that he feels should be used to determine the 2009 Kentucky Derby field:
1. March 7. Gotham Stakes (Grade III). The winner is in.
2. March 14. Louisiana Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
3. March 14. San Felipe Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
4. March 14. Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III). The winner is in.
5. March 21. Lane’s End Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
6. March 28. Florida Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
7. April 4. Wood Memorial (Grade I). First three are in.
8. April 4. Illinois Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
9. April 4. Santa Anita Derby (Grade I). First three are in.
10. April 11. Blue Grass Stakes (Grade I). First three are in.
11. April 11. Arkansas Derby (Grade II). First and second are in.
12. April 18. Lexington Stakes (Grade II). First and second are in.
“That’s a total of 26 spots up for grabs,” Osterman wrote. “But, certainly, there will be repeat qualifiers and defections by choice and due to injury that will cut the field down considerably. If more than 20 qualify, and want to run, the final tiebreaker would be graded stakes earnings as a 3-YEAR-OLD. If fillies or foreign horses want to play, they’ll need to earn their spot like everybody else.”
Based on Osterman’s list, this is who would be qualified to run in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, listed in alphabetic order: Advice, Chocolate Candy, Conservative, Dunkirk, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Giant Oak, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Just a Coincidence, Massone, Mr. Hot Stuff, Musket Man, Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, Pioneerof the Nile, Quality Road, Theregoesjojo and West Side Bernie.
END