It's Post Time
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
When I watched Pioneerof the Nile win the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park last Dec. 20, I felt he was a colt with a great deal of potential, mainly because of his pedigree, long stride and actual birthday (May 2, making him a late foal). I’d say it might have been akin to how someone probably have felt watching LeBron James playing basketball in high school.
On my first Kentucky Derby list at the start of 2009, Pioneerof the Nile was No. 1. He now has held the top spot for 18 consecutive weeks.
A few weeks ago, I began to write and speak of Pioneerof the Nile as not only my choice to win the Kentucky Derby, but also as a colt who might become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Affirmed in 1978.
The Nile’s bid for Triple Crown immortality has become more attainable by the absence in the Kentucky Derby of both Quality Road and the brilliant filly Rachel Alexandra. Quality Road is not competing this Saturday because of a quarter crack problem, while Rachel Alexandra’s connections have elected to run her in Friday’s Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra is the 3-5 favorite in the Oaks and probably will start at 1-5 or 2-5.
Quality Road was No. 3, behind only Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge, on my Top 10 list last week. It obviously helps The Nile not to have to deal with a quality foe like Quality Road.
As for Rachel Alexandra, she is so scary that I honestly believe that she would be the biggest threat to Pioneerof the Nile winning the roses. As I said on HRTV earlier this year, I think Rachel Alexandra might well be better than Eight Belles, who finished second to Big Brown in last year’s Kentucky Derby. Eight Belles was one of only five fillies to ever finish first or second in the Kentucky Derby. Regret (1915), Genuine Risk (1980) and Winning Colors (1988) are the three fillies to win the race. Lady Navarre (1906) is the lone filly other than Eight Belles to have finished second.
If Rachel Alexandra’s connections had opted to run her in the Kentucky Derby, I think she would have had an excellent chance of emulating Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors.
My respect for Rachel Alexandra grew as recently as Monday, when she turned in what, by all accounts, was a fantastic workout at Churchill Downs. Daily Racing Form’s respected handicapper and workout analyst Mike Welsch raved about the filly’s Monday a.m. rehearsal with jockey Calvin Borel aboard beneath the historic Twin Spires.
“Rachel Alexandra’s final Oaks prep was one of the most eye-catching Derby week drills witnessed here in recent memory,’ Welsch wrote. “With Borel sitting like a statue, Rachel Alexandra went her opening quarter-mile in :22.64, and despite turning into a headwind, came home in :23.79 without even the lightest hint of urging. She then continued at a similar pace around the turn and into the backstretch, galloping out five furlongs in :58.40 and double galloping out six furlongs in 1:10.78 before finally pulling up seventh-eighths in an incredible 1:24.65. The move was reminiscent of, if not even better than, Street Sense’s final Derby prep, right down to the presence of Borel in the saddle. Rachel Alexandra has been a joy to watch training here all week, and off this work would have been my pick had she taken on the boys in the Derby. However, she is not nominated to the Triple Crown.”
So I repeat the question I posed in the April 8 edition of this column: How in the world is anybody going to beat Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks?
Perhaps the only glimmer of hope for her seven rivals is that her fast workout Monday took too much out of her.
Zenyatta, undefeated in nine career starts, also is scheduled to run at Churchill Downs this Friday. The daughter of Street Cry, owned by Jerry and Ann Moss and trained by John Shirreffs, is entered in the Grade II Louisville Stakes.
Seeing Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra perform this Friday in different races at Churchill Downs will be quite a treat. And who knows? Perhaps we will get a chance to see those two gifted gals run against each other before the year is over. How cool would that be?
Meanwhile, not having to face Rachel Alexandra might turn out to be a huge blessing for Pioneerof the Nile and the rest of those participating in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
I have envisioned a possible Triple Crown for Pioneerof the Nile from the standpoint that if I’m right and he does win the Kentucky Derby, I believe he has much going for him in being able to complete the sweep.
If The Nile wins the Derby, I think it’s likely that he will come right back and get the job done in the Preakness. I think it’s likely for two reasons. First, his trainer, Bob Baffert, is three for three in the Preakness with Kentucky Derby winners (Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem). Second, because trainers these days generally do not like running a horse back in only two weeks, most Derby starters do not go on to the Preakness. I believe this is one of the reasons why we’ve had so many horses win both the Derby and Preakness in recent years.
In seven of the last 12 years, we have seen the Kentucky Derby winner also prevail in the Preakness. Those seven were:
1997 Silver Charm
1998 Real Quiet
1999 Charismatic
2002 War Emblem
2003 Funny Cide
2004 Smarty Jones
2008 Big Brown
Of course, all seven failed in their quest for Triple Crown glory by being unable to close the deal in the Belmont Stakes.
In 2001, after Point Given won the Santa Anita Derby, I thought he might become a Triple Crown winner. One of the main reasons I felt that way is I thought the 1 1/2-mile Belmont would be the best of the Triple Crown races for him. After taking the Preakness by 2 1/4 lengths, Point Given won the Belmont in isolated splendor by 12 1/4 lengths. But his Belmont was not a Triple Crown coronation because he ran fifth in the Kentucky Derby, the only time in 12 lifetime starts that he didn’t finish first or second.
Pioneerof the Nile, like Point Given, goes into the Kentucky Derby with an even better resume than Silver Charm or Real Quiet in terms of how they ran in Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.
Silver Charm and Real Quiet finished second in both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Silver Charm came within three-quarters of a length of sweeping the Triple Crown. Real Quiet lost the Triple Crown by a whisker.
Point Given and Pioneerof the Nile won both the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Point Given didn’t get his Triple Crown, but he did earn the Horse of the Year title that season. Now we will see what fate has in store for The Nile.
Here is my final Kentucky Derby Top 10 list:
1. Pioneer of the Nile
2. I Want Revenge
3. Friesan Fire
4. Papa Clem
5. Chocolate Candy
6. Musket Man
7. Desert Party
8. General Quarters
9. Dunkirk
10. Mr. Hot Stuff
This is a horse-by-horse analysis of those on my final Kentucky Derby Top 10 list, with a look at their positives and negatives (written prior to knowing the post positions):
1. PIONEEROF THE NILE
Positives:
Pioneerof the Nile, I believe, has the talent, class, pedigree, running style, versatility, stamina, heart, trainer and jockey to win the Kentucky Derby.
Talent and class: He’s won four consecutive graded stakes races. During that winning streak, the vanquished included the likes of I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem. I Want Revenge went on to win the Grade III Gotham Stakes and Grade II Wood Memorial. Chocolate Candy went on to take the California Derby and Grade III El Camino Real Derby. Papa Clem went on to finish second in the Grade II Louisiana Derby and win the Grade II Arkansas Derby.
Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile is a son of Empire Maker and the Lord at War mare Star of Goshen. Empire Maker, a son of Unbridled, finished second in the Kentucky Derby and won the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial and Belmont Stakes. Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Star of Goshen won the La Troienne Stakes by 11 lengths at Churchill Downs. Lord at War won the Santa Anita Handicap.
Running Style: I’m looking for Pioneerof the Nile to be racing in the middle of the pack during the early stages. Moreover, I think that he has an excellent chance to be first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby. This is significant considering the vast majority of Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong remaining.
Versatility: Pioneerof the Nile has been able to win under various scenarios. In the CashCall Futurity, he dropped back early, made a sustained run on the backstretch, proved amenable to rating on the far turn while sitting close to the lead, accelerated at the top of the stretch to kick clear and held off I Want Revenge late. In the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, Pioneerof the Nile lacked early speed and generated a furious kick in the stretch to run down Papa Clem. In the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, a lack of pace found him in front earlier in the race than his connections prefer to see. In the Santa Anita Derby, he dragged Garrett Gomez to the front on the backstretch before Feisty Suances regained the lead. The Nile relaxed better after relinquishing the advantage, showed a turn of foot to take charge entering the stretch and kept to his task well enough to win by one length.
Stamina: Pioneerof the Nile has a long stride. Baffert has felt that the colt will be at his best going 1 1/8 mile or farther.
Heart: In the CashCall Futurity, Pioneerof the Nile had to show heart to hold off I Want Revenge. In the Lewis, Pioneerof the Nile had to show heart to catch Papa Clem.
Trainer: To me, it’s a huge plus that Baffert conditions The Nile considering the trainer has won the Kentucky Derby three times (Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem) and came within an eyelash of another victory (Cavonnnier).
Jockey: Garrett Gomez has been voted the Eclipse Award the past two years. He’s zero for five in the Kentucky Derby, but it seems to me that it’s only a matter of time before Gomez wins the roses. Also, bear in mind that Gomez and his agent, Ron Anderson, chose to ride The Nile over Dunkirk.
It appears that Pioneerof the Nile is coming up to Saturday’s race beautifully in terms of his training. He stepped five furlongs Monday officially in 1:01 at Churchill Downs. Welsch timed him in 1:00 4/5.
Here were the final Kentucky Derby works by four other Baffert trainees:
Silver Charm (5 furlongs in 1:00 3/5)
Real Quiet (5 furlongs in :59 1/5)
Point Given (5 furlongs in :59 4/5)
War Emblem (5 furlongs in 1:00 2/5)
On HRTV’s “Pursuit of the Crown,” Gary Stevens characterized Pioneerof the Nile’s five furlongs Monday as “not the fastest work of the morning, but I would label it as one of the prettiest works this morning, and I loved his gallop out after the work, [six furlongs] in 1:13.”
Negatives:
Many will say that a negative is Pioneerof the Nile has never raced on the dirt. But I do not consider this to be a negative. In fact, so many horses have improved when switched from a synthetic track to the dirt, I think it actually could prove a plus for The Nile in the Kentucky Derby. Based on his breeding, there is absolutely no reason for The Nile not to do quite well on the dirt. “I think he might like this track more than he does Santa Anita,” Baffert said last Saturday. “He seems to lower his head and stride out even better here.”
Some also may be concerned by Pioneerof the Nile’s lack of a Beyer Speed Figure higher than 96. But I think the Beyers are far from trustworthy for synthetic surfaces. Too many horses like I Want Revenge seem to suddenly sprout wings when they switch to the dirt after running on synthetic tracks. Do not be surprised if Pioneerof the Nile manages to post the best Beyer of his life in his dirt debut this Saturday.
Is post position No. 16 a negative, a positive or neither? With the fifth pick in the post position process, Baffert chose No. 16. The Hall of Fame trainer explained to HRTV’s Scott Hazeleton that the reason for selecting a post position toward the outside is to give Gomez “some options,” especially if The were to get rank early in the race despite acting so professional in his training at Churchill Downs.
There have been only three Kentucky Derby winners from post 16, but all three came within the last decade and a half: Thunder Gulch (1995), Charismatic (1999) and Monarchos (2001).
To me, the only negative for Pioneerof the Nile is his tendency to loaf once he makes the lead. But this characteristic did not stop Buckpasser from having a Hall of Fame career or Ferdinand from winning the Kentucky Derby.
2. I WANT REVENGE
Positives:
This obviously is a very good colt. He first showed me that in the Grade I Cash Call Futurity. In that race, I Want Revenge got shuffled back early and encountered some other traffic issues. Once he finally got a clear path for the stretch run, he closed strongly to lose by a scant nose to Pioneerof the Nile.
The more I examined the CashCall Futurity, the more I realized that if I liked Pioneerof the Nile’s race, I also had to like I Want Revenge’s performance. Hence, in my first Kentucky Derby Top 10 list of the year, I Want Revenge was No. 3, behind only Pioneerof the Nile and Old Fashioned.
Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge have met twice. The score: Pioneerof the Nile 2, I Want Revenge 0. However, a case can be made that I Want Revenge might turn the tables on The Nile this Saturday.
It doesn’t appear that there is all that much separating I Want Revenge and The Nile in terms of ability. As mentioned, in their first encounter, only a nose separated them at the finish. In their rematch, Pioneerof the Nile won the Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. I Want Revenge finished third, 1 1/2 lengths behind The Nile. But I Want Revenge did not seem to care for a wet synthetic track that day. Even so, he didn’t finish all that far behind The Nile.
Since the Lewis, I Want Revenge is two for two on the dirt in New York. Not only that, those two victories came on two different dirt surfaces.
I Want Revenge rolled to an 8 1/2-length win in the Gotham Stakes on Aqueduct’s inner track March 7 while earning a 113 Beyer Speed Figure. On synthetic tracks prior to that, his best Beyer had been a 92. The 113 remains the highest Beyer earned by a 3-year-old this year, even better than Quality Road’s retroactively adjusted 111 (originally an 103) in the Florida Derby.
Then, in the Wood Memorial on Aqueduct’s main track, I Want Revenge ran a remarkable race to win by 1 1/2 lengths despite a disastrous start and traffic trouble.
Another positive could be the IEAH karma. IEAH Stables, headed by Michael Iavarone, bought a majority interest in Big Brown and watched him go on to win the roses. IEAH acquired an interest in I Want Revenge before the Wood. Perhaps I Want Revenge likewise will win the roses for them.
Negatives:
I Want Revenge is zero for two when running against Pioneerof the Nile. So why is I Want Revenge going to defeat The Nile this Saturday?
Also, the Gotham and Wood didn’t appear to have particularly strong fields this year. I believe that Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire are better than those horses, too.
3. FRIESAN FIRE
Positives:
After losing three straight, Friesan Fire blossomed at the Fair Grounds, reeling off three consecutive graded stakes victories there. He won the Grade III Lecomte Stakes, Grade III Risen Star Stakes and Grade II Louisiana Derby. Each time he ran a better race than the time before. Offspring of A.P. Indy often get better as they get older, like a fine wine. This seems to be the case with Friesan Fire.
In the Lousiana Derby, Friesan Fire blew past Papa Clem coming into the stretch and went on to win by 7 1/4 emphatic lengths on a sloppy track. That performance by Friesan Fire was flattered when Papa Clem subsequently took the Grade II Arkansas Derby.
Friesan Fire has won on fast and wet tracks.
Larry Jones, Friesan Fire’s trainer, certainly has been knocking on the Kentucky Derby door. Jones saddled Hard Spun to finish second to Street Sense in 2007 (with no less than Curlin third). Jones then sent out Eight Belles to finish second to Big Brown last year.
Negatives:
Friesan Fire goes into the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff. However, I don’t consider this a huge negative, especially since Hard Spun ran quite well in the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff. Friesan Fire’s training up to the Kentucky Derby seems to have mirrored Hard Spun’s, too. They both worked a mile at Keeneland (in 1:39 3/5 for Friesan Fire, in 1:42 2/5 for Hard Spun) before a rapid five-furlong drill at Churchill Downs five days before the Kentucky Derby (:57 4/5 for Friesan Fire, :57 3/5 for Hard Spun).
Another minor concern for Friesan Fire is he’s trying to win a 1 1/4-mile contest without having previously raced farther than 1 1/16 miles.
4. PAPA CLEM
Positives:
It’s no surprise to see Papa Clem become a major player on the national stage with his pedigree. He’s a son of Smart Strike and the Belong to Me mare Miss Houdini. Smart Strike is the sire of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, North America’s all-time leader in earnings at $10,501,800. Miss Houdini was a Grade I winner. Miss Houdini’s dam, Magical Maiden, was a multiple Grade I winner.
Take Papa Clem lightly at your own peril. He has heart. He showed it in his maiden win at Santa Anita last Dec. 29, coming back on to defeat Mayor Marv (who went on to win the Turf Paradise Derby). Papa Clem also showed heart to hold off Terrain for the place in the Louisiana Derby. Papa Clem again showed heart to overhaul Old Fashioned to win the Arkansas Derby.
Papa Clem lost the only time he faced Pioneerof the Nile. But Papa Clem lost that race, the Lewis at Santa Anita, by only a half-length and might not have seen Pioneerof the Nile, who was in the middle of the track while Papa Clem was along the rail. If Papa Clem had seen Pioneerof the Nile that day, maybe the outcome would have been different.
A red-hot Rafael Bejarano riding Papa Clem is another plus.
Negatives:
While Papa Clem did win the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, I am a bit concerned as to how effective he will be at 1 1/4 miles. Also, his Arkansas Derby victory is tainted somewhat by the fact he overtook Old Fashioned, who emerged from the race with a career-ending injury and therefore was vulnerable in the final sixteenth of the race.
5. CHOCOLATE CANDY
Positives:
Chocolate Candy has been a gem of consistency in races at one mile or longer (seven starts, four wins, two seconds and a third).
In the CashCall Futurity, Chocolate Candy came home willingly to finish third, just 1 1/2 lengths behind both Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge. So if The Nile and I Want Revenge are bona fide Kentucky Derby contenders, so is Chocolate Candy.
Chocolate Candy also ran well in the Santa Anita Derby to finish second despite a lack of pace and racing wide into the stretch. Again, he didn’t finish all that far (one length) behind Pioneerof the Nile.
Negatives:
This will be Chocolate Candy’s first race on something other than a synthetic track. So, Chocolate Candy, like Pioneerof the Nile, is making his dirt debut in the Kentucky Derby. But, as with The Nile, I don’t see this as a big problem for Chocolate Candy, particularly with his breeding.
Chocolate Candy is a son of Candy Ride and the Seattle Slew mare Crownette. Candy Ride won the Grade I Pacific Classic on the dirt. Crownette was a stakes winner at Santa Anita on the dirt. Seattle Slew? Of course, he swept the Triple Crown on the dirt.
6. MUSKET MAN
Positives:
Musket Man has lost only once in six career starts. Not only that, he’s won on four different dirt tracks (Belmont Park, Philadelphia Park, Tampa Bay Downs and Hawthorne).
The Tampa Bay form looked even stronger when General Quarters won the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. When Musket Man won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay, General Quarters ran third. General Quarters subsequently won the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes, with Musket Man ending up third for his lone loss. When Musket Man then won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby, General Quarters finished fifth.
Negatives:
Because Musket Man is a son of the Cherokee Run stallion Yonaguska, there is some question about just how well he will do at 1 1/4 miles.
Musket Man has not wowed folks with the way he’s trained at Churchill Downs.
7. GENERAL QUARTERS
Positives:
Since there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of difference between Musket Man and General Quarters, it makes sense to rank them close together.
General Quarters is quite a story, being claimed for $20,000 on May 30, 2008, by owner-trainer Tom McCarthy, a 75-year-old retired high school principal, out of a winning maiden race at Churchill Downs.
After winning the Grade I Blue Grass, General Quarters increased his career earnings to $641,735.
Unlike Musket Man, General Quarters has made a favorable impression with his training at Churchill Downs the closer he gets to the race.
Negatives:
Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal wrote that, according to Equibase stats, McCarthy has never won two races in a row as a trainer.
8. DESERT PARTY
Positives:
Yes, Desert Party has made all three starts in Dubai this year. But he’s no stranger to American soil. He won the Grade II Hopeful Stakes last year at Saratoga.
Desert Party is by Street Cry. That’s certainly a positive. Street Cry has sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense, plus 2008 Eclipse Award winner Zenyatta.
While Desert Party failed to win the UAE Derby in his most recent start, he may have been hindered in that race by trying to rally on a track that was playing favorably to front-runners.
Desert Party has created a buzz with how well he has trained at Churchill Downs.
Negatives:
Desert Party couldn’t even win the UAE Derby. So how is he going to win the Kentucky Derby?
No horse has ever shipped over from Dubai and won the roses, though this doesn’t overly concern me. I do think that we will see a Dubai shipper do it one of these years.
It probably does not help Desert Party to begin from post 19, though he still begins closer to the insider rail than the victorious Big Brown last year.
9. DUNKIRK
Positives:
Dunkirk does appear to possess considerable talent. The $3.7 million yearling raised eyebrows with his 5 3/4-length debut win at Gulfstream. In his next start, he again was impressive, winning an allowance affair there despite an extremely wide trip. In his only loss, Dunkirk made a powerful move on the far turn and appeared to get a slight lead over Quality Road coming into the stretch of the Grade I Florida Derby. While Quality Road quickly regained the advantage and went on to win, Dunkirk finished second, six lengths in front of third-place Theregoesjojo.
Four-time Eclipse Award winner Todd Pletcher trains Dunkirk. Pletcher has never won the Kentucky Derby, but he’s never run a favorite in it, either. This appears to be the best chance Pletcher has had to win the roses. And I think it’s only a matter of time before Pletcher wins a Kentucky Derby.
Dunkirk also gets an outstanding rider in Hall of Famer Edgar Prado.
Negatives:
Dunkirk is light on experience. He did not race as a 2-year-old. The last 126 straight Kentucky Derby winners all raced at 2. I wouldn’t go so far as to say Dunkirk can’t win the Kentucky Derby because of his talent, but it would surprise me considering a colt by the name of Curlin didn’t race at 2 and failed to win the roses.
Garrett Gomez opted to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead of Dunkirk.
10. MR. HOT STUFF
Positives:
If the California horses -- Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Papa Clem and Chocolate Candy -- are as good as it appears, Mr. Hot Stuff is an intriguing possibility to finish at least fourth at a big price in the wagering.
Mr. Hot Stuff is a full brother to Colonel John. When Colonel John finished sixth in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many attributed the loss to the fact he was making his dirt debut after racing on synthetic tracks. But Colonel John actually did well to rally and finish sixth after traffic trouble led to him being 17th early. Colonel John later proved he could win an important race on the dirt by taking the Grade I Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Mr. Hot Stuff was gaining late and finished third. He galloped out strongly after the finish, too. Mr. Hot Stuff galloped out so strongly that he passed both Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy just before reaching the clubhouse turn, though Pioneerof the Nile’s tendency to loaf once he gets in front does make it easier to gallop out past him after a race is over.
Mr. Hot Stuff acts as if he will like going 1 1/4 miles. This is no surprise considering he is a son of Tiznow, who won a pair of Breeders’ Cup Classics at 1 1/4 miles. Tiznow also is the sire of Well Armed, who won this year’s Group I, $6 million Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 miles by a record 14 lengths.
Negatives:
Mr. Hot Stuff has never won a stakes race. In fact, he has never even finished second in a stakes race. Is he good enough at this point of his career to win a race like the Kentucky Derby? Or will he be better down the line?
STRIKES FOR THE 20 ENTRANTS
In 1999, I came up with various key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a tactical and historical standpoint. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike. When a horse gets three or more strikes, I toss them out. That’s because since I developed this system, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with more than two strikes.
Here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had going back to 1999:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (1 strike)
2007 Smart Sense (1 strike)
2008 Big Brown (2 strikes)
Here are how many strikes each of the last three Triple Crown winners had:
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
So this is yet another encouraging sign that Pioneerof the Nile might sweep the Triple Crown. He is one of six candidates for this year’s Kentucky Derby who has zero strikes.
Here are how many strikes the 20 Kentucky Derby entrants have:
ZERO STRIKES
Chocolate Candy
Desert Party
General Quarters
Musket Man
Papa Clem
Pioneerof the Nile
ONE STRIKE
Friesan Fire
I Want Revenge
Regal Ransom
West Side Bernie
TWO STRIKES
Mr. Hot Stuff
THREE STRIKES
Dunkirk
Hold Me Back
Flying Private
Join in the Dance
Nowhere to Hide
FOUR STRIKES
Advice
Atomic Rain
Summer Bird
FIVE STRIKES
Mine That Bird
Here are my 10 key Kentucky Derby factors, with the horse or horses getting a strike listed below in each category:
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
Advice, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird each get a strike.
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
This is one of Dunkirk’s strikes. Advice, Atomic Rain, Flying Private, Join in the Dance, Mr. Hot Stuff, Nowhere to Hide and Summer Bird also each get a strike.
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 44 of the last 46 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
Advice, Flying Private, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff, Nowhere to Hide and West Side Bernie each get a strike.
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
Atomic Rain, Flying Private, Join in the Dance and Mine That Bird each get a strike.
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
Advice, Atomic Rain, Friesan Fire, Mine That Bird, Join in the Dance and Nowhere to Hide each get a strike.
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 have been the only exceptions. Grindsone, Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
Dunkirk, Hold Me Back, Quality Road, Regal Ransom and Summer Bird each get a strike.
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3.)
This is the one strike for I Want Revenge. A strike is a strike, but I consider this rather inconsequential in the case of I Want Revenge because he added blinkers for his first 2009 race and subsequently won his next two races. So this isn’t a case of tinkering at the last minute on the part of trainer Jeff Mullins. Nevertheless, if I Want Revenge does win the Kentucky Derby, the fact remains he will be the first to do so having added blinkers in a race at 3 before the Derby.
Advice and Atomic Rain also get a strike in this category.
Nowhere to Hide does not technically get a strike as this rule is worded this way: “The horse did not add blinkers in any of his or races at 3 before the Derby.” Nowhere to Hide did have blinkers removed for the Illinois Derby and is scheduled to having blinkers put back on for the Kentucky Derby. However, the thinking behind this rule is for a trainer not be tinkering with a horses equipment so late in the game. And trainer Nick Zito clearly is tinkering with Nowhere to Hide’s equipment late in the game.
8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
This is another strike for Dunkirk. Summer Bird also gets a strike in this category. Since 1955, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 44 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Strodes Creek (second in 1994) and Curlin (third in 2007).
9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
Mine That Bird gets a strike.
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 61 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 58 have failed. The only three exceptions since Jet Pilot in 1947 were Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown in 2008.)
Hold Me Back and Mine That Bird each get a strike.