It's Post Time
A WEAK 2009 KENTUCKY DERBY
Near the end of 2008, this column attempted to quantify, at least to some extent, the quality of the fields for the 2006, 2007 and 2008 Kentucky Derbies. I did that by taking a look at what the Derby starters did the rest of the year in terms of starts, wins, graded stakes wins and Grade I wins.
While my study examined only the Kentucky Derby starters, it also shed some light on the relative quality of that particular 3-year-old crop as a whole.
Now that we are nearing the end of 2009, I decided to take a look at what the starters in this year’s Kentucky Derby have gone on to do and compare that to 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Here is what I came up with:
NUMBER OF STARTS AT 3 AFTER THE DERBY
2009 (51)
2008 (66)
2007 (72)
2006 (50)
Keep in mind that 19 horses started in the Derby this year compared to 20 in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Also, the 2009 group is not done yet. For instance, Papa Clem, who finished fourth in the Derby, might run in Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes on Dec. 26.
WINS AT 3 AFTER THE DERBY
2009 (6)
2008 (19)
2007 (19)
2006 (16)
While there was not much difference between the wins at 3 following the 2006, 2007 and 2008 Derby starters, there was a dramatic decrease in this category this year. The 19 horses who ran for the roses this year have won just six races during the rest of the year combined. This suggests that the 2009 Derby field was quite weak compared to 2006, 2007 and 2008.
Summer Bird, who finished sixth in this year’s Derby, has gone on to win three races. Atomic Rain, 16th in this year’s Derby, has won twice since then. Regal Ransom ran eighth in this year’s Derby and subsequently won once. The rest of the 16 starters in this year’s Derby are zero for 41 combined since the Derby.
GRADED WINS AT 3 AFTER THE DERBY
2009 (4)
2008 (14)
2007 (18)
2006 (9)
In terms of post-Kentucky Derby wins in graded stakes races, the 2009 Derby field was extremely weak vis-à-vis the 2007 and 2008 fields. And one horse, Summer Bird, has accounted for three of the four wins in a graded stakes race following the Derby. Regal Ransom is the only other horse to win a graded stakes race this year after running in the Derby.
GRADE I WINS AT 3 AFTER THE DERBY
2009 (3)
2008 (7)
2007 (7)
2006 (4)
This is an important category, perhaps the most important, because Grade I races are, of course, the most difficult to win. The only Grade I wins by this year’s Derby starters since the Derby were the three by Summer Bird.
THE LIST OF GRADE I WINS
The Grade I wins by 2009 Kentucky Derby starters during the rest of the year:
Belmont (Summer Bird)
Travers (Summer Bird)
Jockey Club Gold Cup (Summer Bird)
The Grade I wins by 2008 Derby starters during the rest of the year:
Preakness (Big Brown)
Haskell Invitational (Big Brown)
King’s Bishop (Visionaire)
Travers (Colonel John)
Cigar Mile (Tale of Ekati)
Hollywood Derby (Court Vision)
Malibu (Bob Black Jack)
The Grade I wins by 2007 Derby starters during the rest of the year:
Preakness (Curlin)
Haskell Invitational (Any Given Saturday)
King’s Bishop (Hard Spun)
Travers (Street Sense)
Jockey Club Gold Cup (Curlin)
Goodwood (Tiago)
Breeders’ Cup Classic (Curlin)
The Grade I wins by a 2006 Derby starter during the rest of the year:
Belmont (Jazil)
Haskell Invitational (Bluegrass Cat)
Secretariat (Showing Up)
Hollywood Derbty (Showing Up)
CONCLUSIONS
The statistical evidence of this study leads me to come to the conclusion that the 2009 Kentucky Derby field was weak, especially when compared to the 2007 and 2008 fields. Not only is Mine That Bird zero for five since his 50-1 upset in this year’s Derby, those finishing behind him have been woefully ineffective save Summer Bird.
One mitigating aspect to the conclusion that the 2009 Kentucky Derby field was weak is the best 3-year-old of 2009 wasn’t in it. That, of course, would be the filly Rachel Alexandra, who won the Kentucky Oaks by 20 1/4 lengths instead of running in -- and probably winning -- the Kentucky Derby.
After the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra won four Grade I events -- the Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell Invitational and Woodward.
Rachel Alexandra is, without question, an exceptional filly. Summer Bird showed that he was a quality colt by becoming the first 3-year-old since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. But as for the 18 sophomores other than Summer Bird to break from the starting gate in this year’s Kentucky Derby, I think it’s quite evident that they were a considerably weaker lot than the fields of 2007 and 2008.
PENNEY REMEMBERS FRANKEL
Jim Penney, inducted into the Washington Racing Hall of Fame in 2003, is the only trainer to win the most important race in the Pacific Northwest, the Longacres Mile, five times (Silver Mallet in 1973, Theologist in 1977, Edneator in 2000, Sabertooth in 2002 and Flamethrowintexin in 2006).
The only other trainers in the Washington Racing Hall of Fame are Allen Drumheller Sr., Frances Keller, Bud Klokstad, Tom Smith, Kathy Walsh, Charlie Whittingham and Glen Williams.
When I wrote about Bobby Frankel’s death in the Nov. 18 edition of this column, I mentioned Pataha Prince. Bred in Washington by Arden F. Archer Jr. of Dayton, Wash., Pataha Prince won the 1967 Washington Futurity at Longacres for Archer while under Penney’s tutelage.
Pataha Prince moved to the Frankel barn after being claimed for $16,000 off Penney at Hollywood Park in the summer of 1973. After that, Frankel saddled the son of Strong Ruler to capture Del Mar’s six-furlong Bing Crosby Handicap in 1:08 flat under Bill Shoemaker.
Following the 1973 Bing Crosby, a razor-sharp 8-year-old Pataha Prince nearly won the Longacres Mile a couple of weeks later. In the Mile, Pataha Prince battled for the lead throughout the entire race and finished second, a neck behind the Penney-trained Silver Mallet, whose 1:34 clocking tied the track record.
Penney recently told me about a wonderful gesture on Frankel’s part regarding Pataha Prince once it was determined that Pataha Prince’s racing days were over.
“Frankel gave Pataha Prince back to the Archers,” Penney said. “Pataha Prince did live in retirement until he was 32 years old. I think it was great of Bobby to give the horse back to the Archers.”
Penney went on to say that after Pataha Prince’s retirement from racing, the multiple stakes winner did parade at the racetrack in Dayton.
Dayton’s track, sadly, is one of only four left in what little remains of horse racing on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains in Washington. The other three tracks are in Kennewick (Sun Downs), Walla Walla and Waitsburg.
While I was growing up in Eastern Washington in Spokane, that city was home to Playfair Race Course. There also was Yakima Meadows in Central Washington. Those two tracks, along with beautiful Longacres near Seattle, comprised what back then were called the state’s three “major” tracks. But none of those three tracks exists today. While Emerald Downs has replaced Longacres in the Seattle area, the tracks in Spokane and Yakima have not been replaced.
And, according to a story Monday in the Tri-City Herald written by Drew Foster, horse racing is in danger of becoming a thing of the past on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains in Washington.
“Area horsemen are concerned rental rate increases and other stall and track modifications being made [at Sun Downs] by Benton County could kill off horse racing in the Tri-Cities and possibly Eastern [and Central] Washington,” Foster wrote.
Cliff Schellinger, president of the Tri-City Horse Racing Association, said that Sun Downs and the tracks in Dayton, Walla Walla and Waitsburg together spend $120,000 per year on insurance. The Tri-City Horse Racing Association pays for more than half of that sum. Without the insurance contribution from the Tri-City Horse Racing Association should Sun Downs cease operating, “Schellinger doesn’t think the others will be able to afford to insure races at their home tracks,” Foster wrote.
“I think it’s well known that if Sun Downs closes, that will be the end of horse racing” in Eastern and Central Washington, Schellinger said. “I’d hate to see it disappear.”
Me too.
END