Selections
by Ellis Starr for Del Mar – Wednesday 08/29/07
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better
handicapper and bettor and at the same time keep you in the game with uncommon
selections and analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections
and analysis: The horses listed in BOLD at the top of each race section
are the horses I think have the highest probability to win ('win contenders').
I list them according to my preference and with fair odds for determining the
threshold for making win bets. Fair odds
are a guide. The best way to use this report is to consider win bets at or
above fair odds, starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a 'win
contender' but below fair odds it still can be used in other ways to profit, such
as in the exacta. When considering exactas remember that the 2nd best 'win
contender' isn't necessarily the best horse to run second, so even though I
rank horses in order that doesn't mean they will, or won't, finish in that
order. When I feel an exacta is warranted I specifically say so.
Guide
to Ratings:
- Race is predictable but may not offer much
opportunity for profit, or is unpredictable but offers opportunity for
profit if the returns are high enough.
- Race presents an average (decent) profit opportunity
depending on the potential returns.
- Race that presents an exceptional profit
opportunity, not necessarily that any particular horse in the race does.
These races usually have vulnerable favorites, contenders at high odds, or
both. Whether any horse or horses in the race present exceptional
opportunity will depend on the odds and potential returns.
Go to www.trackmaster.com or www.equibase.com to get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily
Always Check Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating = 1
#2 Naughtylilhottie - Fair odds 3/2
With Home Alona, Devons Success
and Annie Oakleaf all “early” pace types and with Guest being
dumped to 10K for the first time, off a nearly 6 month layoff, a big “hands
off” signal, and with Kreeker 0 for 23 this year and last, Naughtylilhottie not only is the one to beat by
default, she’s a complete standout and at the least a single on any pick
3 or 4 or daily double tickets we may be playing to start the day. She closed
from last to 2nd last out over the track on 8/4 versus slightly
tougher, first of the Mullins claim, and with Talamo riding her back and up for
her last win as well and with the pace in her favor and stronger here at this
level than last out she looks very tough in this situation.
Race #2 - Rating = 2
#3 Mr. Ching - Fair odds 7/2
#1 My City by the Bay - Fair odds 7/2
Exactas: 3 with 1,6,7 and 1,6,7
with 3 then also 1 with 6,7 and 6,7 with 1
6 is Shootist, 7 is A Stare and
Me
Although all 4 listed contenders can
and should be used on daily double, pick 3 and pick 4 tickets we play, with the
two listed win contenders (the ones with fair odds above) having a 15 for 25
win/place combined record in their careers they get a big edge over the other
two in terms of probability of completing the exacta. Mr. Ching rallied from 8th to 2nd
when last seen in October in a turf sprint like this one and coming back fresh
and with the ultimate equipment change, as he’s now a gelding, and with
his next to last turf sprint before that a sharp win, he looks very tough here.
My City by the Bay ran fast
from 8th to 2nd in his only career turf sprint, in June,
one before last in his first start at the met making the lead from off the pace
and ending up 2nd then regressing last out. With every right to
rebound back to top form on the move back to the turf he’s the other that
figures as the key to wagering profit in the race.
Race #3 - Rating = 1
#1 Vatchesvendetta - Fair odds 3/1
Exactas: Box 1,2
(Wildout) Box 1,3 (Worthy Cause)
All 3 horses listed above need to
be considered for pick 3 and 4 tickets we play but because the combined record
of the 3 is three for fifty-four in their careers, all one time career winners
only, I’ll just look at one for a win bet, happy to pass just as easily
as to wager. Vatchesvendetta runs
first off the Moger claim, the 2nd time in a row the mare was
claimed at the meet, two back battling with 2 other horses in the stretch and settling
for 2nd late, last out getting to 2nd in the stretch and
tiring to 4th. Moving to the non-winners of 2 claiming level for the
first time could be just the thing to get her to repeat that 7/30 effort, which
would be a winning race in this field.
Race #4 - Rating = 1
#12 Our Papa Joe - Fair odds 3/1
#8 Williamsburg
Slew - Fair odds 3/1
#1 World News - Fair odds 7/2
Exacta: 1,8,12 over 1,2,4,6,8,12
(2 Lutyens, 4 Onza de Oro, 6 Niccolo Dream)
Lutyens, a $1.6 million purchase
as a yearling in 2002, has now run at the bottom 25K mcl level in 3 straight
races, demonstrating strongly the vicissitudes of racing, the gelding
vulnerable at best and false as the favorite at the most as
he along with six others having already lost at the level look very difficult
to make a case for. Our Papa Joe rallied
from 10th to 2nd, beaten just a neck on the wire, one
before last at 6 ½ furlongs over the track, his first start at the
level. Mistakenly raised to the 40K level after that, on the return to the
bottom, with the same kind of good outside post as he had 7/18, repeating or
improving off that effort for his maiden win seems logical, particularly with
leading jockey Baze getting the call for the 1st time. Williamsburg Slew comes back from 6 months off
with a quartet of sharp workouts since joining the Gallagher barn and shipping
in from Kentucky. He won
in his career debut on polytrack last summer just as he’s running over
today and opening at 12/1 he gives us another wagering opportunity in the race
as he could run as big off the bench today as he did in his debut. World News rallied from 8th to 4th
last out in his first race at the meet, at this 7 furlong distance, and
dropping from the 50K mcl level to this bottom level for the first time and
with 2nd at the meet improvement he should be closing even better
than last out for a piece at the least.
Race #5 - Rating = 1
#3 Awesome Broad - Fair odds 9/5 - bet to win and place
With Queenofthebrahms adding
blinkers and with California Demon and Funky Chanteal stretching out from a
sprint to a route, adding Flamingo Princess as an “early” pace
type, we could have a very hotly contested and hot pace on our hands that sets
up Awesome Broad nicely,
having just run big at this mile trip over the track on 7/20 in her first start
at the meet. She rallied from 7th and last to make the lead in the stretch,
ending up 2nd to a horse who came right back to win her next start,
and with Espinoza riding her for the very first time last out in her very first
non-maiden special race, she is very much the one to beat here, at the least a
strong single on any pick 3 or 4 tickets we play.
Race #6 - Rating = 3
#4 Valiant Effort - Fair odds 2/1
Exacta: Box 4,1
(Master Heat) Box 4,6 (Vice Admiral)
Although Vice Admiral won his
last start, it was his 11th career race and he now has a 1-8-1 career
record in those 11 races, so for the most part although I’m boxing him
with Valiant Effort he’s not a horse I can bet to win at anywhere near
his likely low odds. With Master Heat 0 for 24 this year and last he’s
another that has a shot to get into the exacta given his fast closing finish
last out that say him beat a head for 3rd and a length for the win
but he too offers no reason to bet him to win.
Valiant
Effort came back from 2 months off last out, at this level on this turf course
rallying from just off the pace to miss the win by a neck on the wire. With leading
jockey Michael Baze taking the call for the first time and with 2nd off
the layoff improvement this son of Bertrando should win not only by improving
off his last effort but by repeating his only other turf route that is
representative of today’s conditions, on March 24 when rallying hard
after waiting for room to run at a critical stage of the race and missing on
the wire by a neck.
Race #7 - Rating = 2
#1 Livia La Vida
Loca - Fair odds 9/5
Exacta: Box 1,6 (Golden
Doc A)
With Expect Valkyr, One Hot Wish,
Proud Garrison and Billie Bob all horses that appear to want the early lead
from the start and at any cost, Livia La
Vida Loca looks capable of winning her 2nd start at the meet and 2nd
in a row, having run big from 6th to 3rd before that win
last out on 8/10 over the track at this distance from the same rail she gets
today in the similar CTBA Stakes for Cal-bred fillies. With a win in her debut
and a fast closing runner-up in the Juan Gonzalez Memorial Stakes in her 2nd
career start, this filly has now run big in all four career starts and figures to
be up in time under Enriquez just as she was 19 days ago.
Race #8 - Rating = 1
#3 Royal Albert - Fair odds 3/1
#1 Jupiter's Stone - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Palladian
General - Fair odds 3/1
Royal
Alpert gets top billing here opening at the highest odds of the 3 contenders at
8 to 1, coming home fast from 9th to 3rd last out, only a
neck from 2nd, over the track in his first turf route ever, with the
winner of that race having come right back to win again and validating the
effort and race. With logical 2nd route improvement coming in this
race and with a sharp 4 furlong workout since raced the colt has a big shot to
post the mild upset breaking his maiden today. Jupiter’s Stone ran on for 2nd and beat Royal
Albert by a neck for the place in that race, and as he’s making his 2nd
start at the meet he too has every right to run even better and win, but we
will note that he’s been beaten as the favorite in two straight and has
run in three straight turf routes without winning as opposed to the top pick
who has only run in a turf route one time and was within inches of him. Palladian General stretches out to turf and two
turns for the first time in his 2nd start after coming back from a
year on the shelf and after rallying nicely from 10th to 4th
last out and with Talamo riding back for the very dependable Gaines barn he’s
a must for any pick 3, pick 4 or daily double tickets we play although opening
at 5/2 he may just not be a good win bet.
You can get
detailed selections & analysis like this daily at www.trackmaster.com
and www.equibase.com
You
can reach me by email addressed to estarr@ellisstarr.com
Explanation of common
terms.
Wheel- Using one horse as a key selection with all the horses in a
certain wager. An exacta wheel using the #1 horse would consist of 1 over all
the others.
Part Wheel- Similar to a wheel but it does not include the entire field.
Back Wheel- Using a horse in the second/place position in the exacta so
if the horse runs second you win. For example all over #1.
Box - Combining two or more horses in an exacta or trifecta so that if
any of them come in any order you are a winner.
Exotics - usually any bets other than straight bets (win, place, and
show). Exotics include exactas, trifectas, pick 3's, 4's and 6's.
Consecutive race bets - Bets that require you to pick winners in
consecutive races, such as Daily Doubles, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagers.