EUROPE VERSUS BROWN
by Millie Ball XBTV.com
ANALYSIS: While still relatively new to the BC program, introduced in 2008, the Juvenile Fillies Turf has been won each and every year by a horse coming from off the pace. It is also one of the few divisions run on turf that the Euros can’t claim domination. That title goes to East Coast trainer Chad Brown, who has enjoyed success 3 times. However, the UK and Ireland will maintain that they have never sent their upper-echelon, and that changes this year with Aidan O'Brien shipping HAPPILY to Del Mar.
MAIN CONTENDERS: HAPPILY is a multiple Group 1 winner that beat the boys in the Jean-Luc Lagardere. She simply outstayed them over a mile on soft ground at Chantilly and cornered beautifully around the bend. She is a full-sister to multiple Group 1 winner Gleneagles, who reveled the firm going, and has the benefit of seasoning. RUSHING FALL won on pure ability when mowing down her competition in the Grade 3 Jessamine. It was only her 2nd career start and it showed as she was late to switch leads and wandered about in the stretch. SEPTEMBER’s turn of foot to get her to the line to win the Chesham at Royal Ascot was not only impressive but noble, given the task and she was incredibly unlucky not to get up in time in the Group 1 Fillies Mile on October 13, at Newmarket. Her sire was a Derby winner in Japan & her mother a dual Oaks winner in Europe, making her the best bred filly in the field.
VALUE PLAYS: This race has been the long-term objective for CAPLA TEMPTRESS and everything has gone according to plan. In her most recent effort in Woodbine's Grade 1 Natalma, she relaxed early and showed an explosive turf of foot (closing in :22.4) to win with her ears pricked. She has since been transferred to Hall of Famer Bill Mott. No harm in that! ULTIMA D has trained forwardly since her Stakes win. Her natural speed and long stride could make her dangerous in what appears to be a pace less race. She was beaten a neck against colts at Saratoga and her post should allow a ground saving trip.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):
- $20 Win: Happily ($20)
- $20 Exacta: Happily over September, Capla Temptress, Rushing Fall, Ultima D($80)
- RUSHING FALL
- CAPLA TEMPRESS