by Brian Nadeau
November 1, 2017
A FAVORITE YOU CAN TRUST
by Brian Nadeau Xpressbet.com
ANALYSIS: The first Breeders’ Cup ever to be held at Del Mar would seemingly give California-based entrants a big advantage. But it appears even more so in the Juvenile Fillies, as the undefeated MOONSHINE MEMORIES is 2-for-2 over the local strip. Her main rivals SEPARATIONOFPOWERS and HEAVENLY LOVE have never been over the track. It may not be as easy as that once the gates open, but that’s a big edge, especially when you’re talking about a filly that going in holds all the aces.
MAIN CONTENDERS: MOONSHINE MEMORIES is not only undefeated in three starts, but she’s also a two-time Grade 1 winner and has shown she can rate. Most importantly, she has won at two turns, which SEPARATIONOFPOWERS has yet to even try, though she did bounce back with authority winning the one-turn Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. The real danger is more likely HEAVENLY LOVE, who looked nothing short of stunning winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland going two turns, is bred to be a star and is just scratching the surface of her untapped potential.
VALUE PLAYS: The three gals mentioned above figure to dominate the betting, so if you’re looking in a different direction, you’ll find value aplenty. ALLURING STAR probably doesn’t want to go this far, but she is trained by Bob Baffert and gave MOONSHINE MEMORIES a brief scare in the Grade 1 Chandelier at Santa Anita, which was her first start against winners and beyond six furlongs. PIEDI BIANCHI is another who will close, and she was beaten just a neck by ALLURING STAR in the Chandelier, though she’s probably best used in a supporting role.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):