by Bob Neumeier
November 1, 2017
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ENTER A BIT OF LUCK
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports
ANALYSIS: As the late trainer, Woody Stephens, once said, “There is only one way to win a race and 20,000 ways to lose them.” So, Lady Luck may have a giant influence on the outcome of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. By their nature, turf races are fraught with peril. In a bulky field of 14 runners, the horse that can avoid the expected traffic has the best chance. We do know that the riders of MIDNIGHT STORM and HEART TO HEART will be sending their mounts from the inside in an expected early tussle. But what happens from the far turn to the wire looks to be a matter of racing luck.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Can ROLY POLY win from the 12 Post? Sure. The past performances even say it’s likely, given her strong European form and the formidable combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. RIBCHESTER is another foreigner with crackerjack running lines, but an arduous trip and a short two-week turnaround may be disadvantageous. WORLD APPROVAL has drawn perfectly (Post #5) and is the best of the North Americans. He’s the ‘now’ horse off victories in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and Grade 2 Fourstardave.
VALUE PLAYS: Using Lasix for the first time, SUEDOIS ran a monstrous number in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Unlike ROLY POLY, SUEDOIS did not win a Group 1 race in Europe before coming to the States. So maybe it was the Lasix that moved him up, or maybe he has simply improved. Whatever the race, his effort in the Shadwell puts him the discussion. It’s difficult to make a strong case for the other 10 entrants. But again, an advantageous sort may take an outsider who can command a clean trip.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):