by Bob Neumeier
November 1, 2017
GOOD AS GOLD?
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports
ANALYSIS: To survive in a difficult environment, horseplayers and sports gamblers must think outside the box to succeed on a regular basis. Selecting BOLT D’ORO in the Juvenile is a no-brainer, a Captain Obvious selection. A 3-for-3 winning son of the white-hot stallion Medaglia d’Oro, he looks unbeatable on paper. His figure in the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita on September 30 would dwarf most Triple Crown candidates as 3-year-olds, but this freak is a babe-in-the-woods. A few months ago, ARROGATE was thought to be invincible, except... you know the rest. If you fancy this obvious favorite, my betting advice is to parlay him in fancy exotics to improve your value. But 3-5 odds in the win pool? Maybe.
MAIN CONTENDERS: BOLT D’ORO will be a ‘single’ on many horizontal tickets. If 3-year-olds can improve or regress overnight, then 2-year-olds can look like a jigsaw puzzle in the final analysis. SOLOMINI has the look of a green, inexperienced talent, oozing with potential. Trained by a chap named Bob Baffert, owned by the Zayat Stable, can this possibly be American Pharoah redux? East Coast threats include the 1-2 finishers of the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, FIRENZE FIRE and GOOD MAGIC. As for FREE DROP BILLY? Not on my dime, thank you.
VALUE PLAYS: In the win pool, almost any horse other than BOLT D’ORO should offer betting value. Remember that FIRENZE FIRE is undefeated on a dry track. GOOD MAGIC is a son of Curlin, whose progeny seem to be more effective with age and distance. His first dam is Glinda the Good, a highlight for fans of the ageless classic “The Wizard of Oz.” Throw SOLOMINI into the mix.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):