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My Churchill Downs Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Ticket

by Dustin Fabian

June 30, 2017

For many bettors, yours truly included, the amount of bankroll I devote to 'Jackpot Style' Pick 6 wagers ebbs and flows based on a number of factors - carryover amount, difficulty of sequence and amount of new money in the pool among them.  But for me, there are two words that nearly always persuade me to jump into the pool...'mandatory payout.'  That's the day where everything must go.  All that money that's been sitting there for the last few weeks waiting to be claimed?  On Mandatory Payout Day, I can take my shot at winning a big share. 

That's the case this Friday night at Churchill Downs, where the 20-cent Single 6 Jackpot must be paid out.  The carryover into Thursday's card is $138,411, and that's more than enough to catch my attention.  If the bet goes unclaimed Thursday, we're in for a treat during Friday's 'Downs After Dark' card, which kicks off at 6:00PM ET.  The Pick 6 starts with Race 5, at 7:57PM ET. 

Among Friday's feature races is a pair of stakes for juveniles - the Grade 3 Bashford Manor and the Debutante - as well as the Kelly's Landing for older sprinters. 

My first goal when handicapping a Pick 6 sequence like this is to identify a single.  In my eyes, as well as in those of the morning line oddsmaker at Churchill Downs, Mike Battaglia, the most logical winners in the sequence are Sunny Skies (4/1) in the Debutante and Limousine Liberal (9/5) in the Kelly's Landing.  Additionally, Battaglia has installed three horses - Copper Bullet (8/5), Ten City (2/1) and Mo Diddley (5/2) - at short odds in the Bashford Manor. 

I expect many bettors to hang their hat on Limousine Liberal specifically.  The winner of the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes two starts back, he won the Grade 3 Aristides last out and is 3-for-5 in his career at Churchill, a huge plus for a horse that has been somewhat hot-and-cold throughout his career.  He meets 14 rivals in the Kelly's Landing, so he'll need to navigate a full field in order to get the job done Friday.  I’m going to use him along with the speedy Recount, who is 2-for-3 at Churchill and 1-for-2 at the distance. 

Here how I'm attacking the Single 6 Jackpot.  Good luck to everyone that's playing!

Race 5 - 2, 9, 12
Race 6 - 5, 6
Race 7 - 2, 4, 10, 11
Race 8 - 1, 6, 9
Race 9 - 1, 4, 7
Race 10 - 4, 5

Ticket Cost - $86.40