by Jeff Siegel
September 5, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Head for Business; 5-Wearenotbadpeople; 7-Irrestibly Sexy
Forecast: Wearenotbadpeople may have been a tad short when flashing good speed from his rail draw and then staying on well to be second in a state-bred maiden-special-weight sprint last month. An also-eligible scratch from a straight maiden turf dash two weeks later, the R. Hanson-trained gelding shows up in a maiden $50,000 seller today while making a significant jockey switch to E. Maldonado, so at this slightly shorter trip we’re expecting the son of Clubhouse Ride to be step forward and graduate at or near his morning line of 5/2. For protection, you may want to toss in on a backup ticket Head for Business and Irresistibly Sexy, the two-three finishers in a maiden $20,000 affair last month. The former pressed the pace and hung on for second in a good effort while earning a career top speed figure while the latter, making his racing debut, was very sluggish to be far back early but took hold late and made up a considerable amount of ground through the lane, though it may have been an optical illusion-type late kick.
RACE 2: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Civil Suit; 5-V Bucks
Forecast: V Bucks was a voided claim for $40,000 vs. straight 3-year-olds when a good runner-up while more than four lengths clear of the rest in late July and returns for P. Miller in a maiden $25,000 affair that is well within her range, assuming she’s healthy enough to fire her best shot. Today restricted (nw-2) affair is open to older fillies and mares but is a considerably softer spot, so at 5/2 on the morning line the daughter of California Chrome may offer a bit of value at or near that price. Civil Suit, a $25,000 J. Wong claim (a massive 34% with this angle), seems likely to improve for her new barn in what will be her third start in her current form cycle. She’s not as fast on speed figures as out top pick but the lightly-raced Lucky Pulpit mare has room to improve and will be tough if V Bucks doesn’t show up with best stuff.
RACE 3: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Granola Girl; 7-Vulin; 10-Wicked
Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies meet over a mile on grass in a race in which tea leaves might be as helpful at the past performance charts. R. Baltas has pair of interesting first-timers, both bred for grass and both entering the fray with workouts from San Luis Rey Downs. Of the two, Granola Girl, a $70,000 OBS purchase in April, shows the quicker drills and has the benefit of the rail post. But Vulin, a $165,000 Keeneland yearling by Kitten’s Joy, attracts F. Prat, so maybe she’s the better of the two. No matter, both have credentials to run very well in a race full of question marks, so both should be included in rolling exotic play. Wicked must leave from the extreme outside post position but has a few fast workouts on her resume that catch the eye. On video, the R. Mandella-trained filly looks nothing more than just okay, but she might be a whole lot more comfortable on grass, something that could be said for many of these. We’ll use the three listed above in our rolling exotics, but the best advice is to tread lightly.
RACE 4: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Til I Found You; 7-Liv and Let Liv; 9-Jasmine Chieftain
Forecast: Low-level ($16,000) claiming 3-year-old fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in a race that looks a bit treacherous on paper. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by. Til I Found You was a voided claim for $50,000 in late July and today shows up near the bottom, so her physical condition is suspect. However, the J. Wong-trained filly is more than quick enough to outrun this field if she has at least one good one left, and the break in the weights with the shift to bug girl E. Ellingwood may make the winning difference. Liv and Let Liv drops below her claim level for the first time since last November and if she can reproduce her spring form the J. Hollendorfer-trained filly will be the one to fear most. Like the rest of these, the daughter of Khozan may have issues, so which version of her we see today is anybody’s guess. Jasmine Chieftain, another class dropper, has back speed figures that are better than par for this level and against this group she should draft into a good stalking position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth tossing in.
RACE 5: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Over Attracted; 4-Trouville; 5-Freedom Lass; 8-Dramatizer
Forecast: Here’s another wide open grass grab bag requiring considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Dramatizer hasn’t run badly in much tougher local races since arriving from the Midwest, and today’s starter’s allowance looks made to order for the daughter of Exaggerator. She makes a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli and should have a sufficient closing kick to tag the leaders in the final furlong. Over Attracted won a restricted (nw-2) $32,000 turf claimer here in late July and today is protected on the raise for new trainer M. Maker. On pure numbers she’s right there with the rest of these and from her favorable inside draw she projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving journey under good grass rider J. Bravo. Freedom Lass has a prior win over the local lawn and will thoroughly enjoy the switch back to grass. The M. Puype-trained filly should be forwardly placed – perhaps even on the lead – and at 6-1 on the morning line will offer a bit of wagering value in both the horizonal and vertical exotics. Trouville, runner-up in her last pair, has always preferred to run second or third (12 times) rather than win (twice) but with F. Prat riding her back the daughter of Will Take Charge should at least get a piece of it.
RACE 6: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Real Fire; 4-I Got a Gal
Forecast: I Got a Gal acts like an exceptional prospect and should be plenty fit to fire a big shot first crack out of the box for P. Eurton. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile brought $150,000 at the OBS June sale and has trained like she’s worth all of that and then some, so at 2-1 on the morning line she’s an open secret and a logical top pick. Her dam is a half-sister to Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner Dream Dancing, and her third dam is Breeders’ Cup Distaff-H1 winner Beautiful Pleasure but based on her local drills she has enough speed to be effective sprinting, though we expect her to be rallying from off the pace. Real Fire has trained like a quick sort for J. Sadler and is the one to fear most. The daughter of Street Boss was acquired for $360,000 at the OBS April sale after being very impressive in the preview session when breezing a furlong in :10 flat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to I Got a Gal.
RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Fearless Gal; 2-Ultimate Hy; 6-Miss Costa Rica
Forecast: Fearless Gal was a useful handicapper in Ireland before being purchased by West Coast interests and turned over the P. D’Amato, who has done so well with these relatively inexpensive European imports and in some cases turned them into stakes performers. This Irish-bred filly was a winner overseas in June, adds Lasix, and could easily pick up where she left off in this first-level allowance turf miler. She’ll likely settle somewhere in mid-pack while saving ground from the rail and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Ultimate Hy is lightly-raced, nicely drawn, a fit on speed figures and reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. The B. Heap-trained filly is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and is dangerous at that price. Miss Costa Rica, in her second start off a layoff, is likely to produce a forward move after an even fifth vs. similar over this course and distance last month. The R. Baltas-trained filly has a prior win over the local lawn and enough early speed to gain a favorable early position. The switch to F. Prat won’t hurt, either.
RACE 8: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Flightline towers over this field – he might tower over any field – and after registering a Grade-1 type speed figure in his maiden romp by more than 13 lengths at Santa Anita in April the J. Sadler-trained colt finally makes it back to the races in this first-level allowance sprint. And not that he needed the help, but the son of Tapit will leave from a cozy outside post that will allow F. Prat to dictate the race flow. At 4/5 on the morning line and likely to go even shorter than that, he’s a no-value rolling exotic single on his way to much bigger and better things.
RACE 9: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dolly May; 7-Into Touring; 11-Helens Well
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf is sprinkled with the usual recent maiden winners and fresh-off-the-plane European imports. Trainer P. D’Amato has two major players, both from Ireland. Helens Well was fourth in her debut in Ireland in May and then, in her U.S. debut, a very impressive winner over this course and distance, overcoming a poor start to graduate like a filly with stakes potential. The far outside draw does her no favors but if she can drop over and get some cover, she’ll be the one to reckon with in the final quarter of a mile. Her stable mate, Dolly May, was a visually pleasing winner of her first start at Limerick in Ireland. She was 33-1 in victory, but the win was anything but a fluke, and we suspect the daughter of Outstrip will be highly-competitive in this event. She’s listed at 10-1 on the morning line and at that price is a “must use.” Into Touring, a clever maiden winner under these conditions in her second career start, produced a good late turn of foot to gain the victory, and though her number wasn’t great the M. Casse-trained filly has every right to continue her improving pattern.
RACE 10: Post: 6:07 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Eda; 3-Elm Drive
Forecast: Elm Drive and Eda finished one-two in the Sorrento S.-G2 here last month and it will not be surprising if the result of this year’s Del Mar Debutante-G1 winds up the same. Both are exceptional prospects and very fast on speed figures, and both should appreciate today’s extended sprint distance. Elm Drive actually improved her Beyer speed figure by 19 points in winning the Sorrento in brave fashion while taking Eda’s best punch, and since then the daughter of Mohaymen has looked spectacular in the morning. Eda improved her speed figure by 21 points between her maiden race and her outstanding effort in the Sorrento, and she, too, has trained since that race for B. Baffert like a filly could take another step forward. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Elm Drive on top.
RACE 11: Post: 6:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Big Coupe; 9-Talklessworkmore
Forecast: Big Coupe was an unlucky loser when second while two lengths clear of the rest in a similar maiden state-bred middle distance turf event here last month. Wide without cover every step of the way, the son of Lakerville hit the front in mid-stretch but couldn’t hang on while earning a career top number, one that should be good enough to handle this field. He’s nicely drawn inside and retains F. Prat. At a big price we’ll also include Talklessworkmore. The lightly-raced Summer Front gelding was off slowly, fanned very wide when trying to rally on the far turn and then lost some of his punch late when ninth, but beaten only five lengths in just his second career start in late July. He’s adding blinkers and switching to D. Van Dyke, so at 15-1 on the morning line he offers a legitimate price chance.