by Jeff Siegel
October 31, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Big Strike; 4-Ready Jet Go; 6-Bowl of Cherries
Forecast: Maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint five furlongs on grass in the closing day opener. The first-timer Big Strike has done some good work in the a.m., is bred to enjoy grass, and looks like a live item in a field in which the known element doesn’t particular inspire. She’s hardly a single but we’ll put the daughter of Mr. Big on top at 4-1 on the morning line. Ready Jet Go, away for more than a year, returns for the always-potent P. Miller/F. Pat trainer-jockey combo. The work tab at San Luis Rey looks decent and the daughter of More Than Ready showed enough ability last year to expect a major effort at this level. She’s a first-time Lasix user that could be a better type this time around. Bowl of Cherries is an eight-race maiden and perhaps not one to rely on, but she’s run well over this course vs. tougher in the past and on pure speed figures may be the one to beat. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Big Strike on top.
Big Strike (October 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: B-
Did okay in three horse team drill with Big Flame (4f, :49.2hg) and Cal Rough (4f, :49.3hg) and was far in front throughout with splits of :24.1, :48.1 and 1:01.3 on our watches, ridden some on the turn and into the stretch to be doing her best. No world beater but has some run and based on pedigree should be better on grass. Seems fit by now and should make the entries soon vs. maiden-claiming types.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Sadie Bluegrass; 2-Bye Bye Bertie
Forecast: Sadie Bluegrass earned a huge speed figure when outrunning starter’s $12,500 allowance foes at Pleasanton in mid-June and returns protected for J. Wong in this tougher starter’s $25,000 affair that she can win with a repeat of that effort. The daughter of Bluegrass Cat will relish the role as the controlling speed from the rail and is a win-machine (nine victories from 16 starts) who has proven to be very difficult to catch under the race’s projected race flow. Bye Bye Bertie pulverized a first-level allowance field over a mile in her first start since being claimed by L. Powell, and if she duplicates that effort at this shorter six furlong trip she’ll certainly have a major look. F. Prat stays aboard and will have the daughter of Alternation running on strongly late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to Sadie Bluegrass.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Ready Soul; 3-Red Storm Risen
Forecast: Ready Soul was overmatched in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 earlier this month but had traffic trouble and probably should have finished closer. Today, against this much lesser field, the son of More Than Ready looks well-spotted to regain his best form while being reunited with “win rider” F. Prat. He’ll likely settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Red Storm Risen is another exiting a graded stakes race – he was fourth (beaten less than three lengths) in the City of Hope Mile-G2 in an effort that produced a career top speed figure – and is the one to fear most. Today’s nine-furlong trip might be stretching his limit, but the P. D’Amato-trained gelding should be able to settle in a comfortable pace-stalking position (behind Margot’s Boy) and have his chance when the pressure is turned on. We’ll prefer Ready Soul on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Under the Stars
Forecast: Under the Stars has done everything in the a.m. like a high-quality prospect and from her cozy outside draw the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile should be a short price to graduate at first asking. The B. Baffert-trained juvenile appears to have plenty of early speed so F. Prat can assess the race flow and then pop and go or stalk and pounce. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower, so her best value might just be as a rolling exotic single.
Under the Stars (October 14, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.4hg). Grade: B+
In blinkers, in company outside Murray (same time) in team gate drill for B. Baffert, splits of :23.4, :47.4 and 1:13.2 on our watches, a few ticks slower than given but very nice nonetheless, actually eased up just past the sixteenth pole yet still proving best by a long neck. Plenty fit, has good early speed, excellent prospect is ready to run.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Use: 9-Mesut; 10-Brix
Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, a six-furlong turf sprint over the flat course. Mesut was beaten just two lengths when fifth behind Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1-bound Lieutenant Dan in the Eddie S. S.-G2 down the Hillside Course earlier this month and takes on a significantly easier task in this restricted (nw-3) starter’s allowance $50,000. He’s found his niche as a late-running sprinter and today’s conditions suit him perfectly. Both of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course so with patient handling he should be along in time. Brix, freshened since February, is another that does his best around one-corner when held up early and allowed to blast home. Although his work tab at San Luis Rey Bounds looks unspectacular, the R. Baltas-trained gelding has a history of firing fresh, so we’re expecting a major effort from the son of Twirling Candy.
RACE 6: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Dynamite Queen; 8-B’esame Me Mucho
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for fillies and mares is a below par event with little to embrace. We’ll try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics, but you should probably include as many as your budget allows. B’esame Me Mucho has the prerequisite two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out patten for her first outing around two turns, and the daughter of Mucho Macho Man certainly has the pedigree to improve over a distance of ground. A closing third in a decent sprint at this level with a vastly improved speed figure last time out makes her attractive in a field that contains very little spark among the other entrants. Dynamite Queen is steadily improving with racing, most recently finishing a willing third over this track and distance at this level three weeks ago. With another forward move today, she’ll be a major player.
RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Floral Essence; 5-Mongolian Mission
Forecast: Floral Essence makes her first start since being claimed by J. Mullins for $50,000 out of a turf miler at this level three weeks ago, and while she ran fairly well in that race (she was worn down late to be second at even money) today’s extra furlong may be problematic. She’s yet to really show she can punch it in under pressure but if the pace is slower today, she may be able to stick it out. Mongolian Mission is the one to fear most in her second start since being haltered for this price by good claiming trainer M. Maker. Freshened since mid-August, the daughter of Noble Mission has natural early speed but might be better served if taken back and allowed to make one run. It’ll be interesting to see if a change in tactics will be employed. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but in a race with plenty of question marks we suggest you tread lightly.
RACE 8: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B
Use: 8-Town Boy; 10-Big Creek: 12-Handy Dandy
Forecast: This maiden claiming sprint for juveniles is an intriguing affair that
requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Town Boy, first off a $32,000 claim by D. O’Neill, was six lengths clear of the rest when second as the favorite in a fast, highly-rated race and has returned to work quite well for his new connections while serving notice that improvement is likely. The son of Speightstown should be part of the pace throughout and figures to stick around a long time. Big Creek is a first-timer by American Pharoah that sold for the proverbial ham sandwich ($20,000) as a yearling. He’s actually displayed pretty good speed in morning workouts and is realistically spotted for a good effort first crack out of the box at 8-1 on the morning line. Handy Dandy was far back against Corniche in the fastest maiden sprint of the year, displaying some early speed before packing it in. He’ll stick a whole lot better at this level and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip outside under F. Prat. The P. Miller barn hits at a terrific 27% with a massive ROI with the second-time starter angle, another reason this son of Fury Kapcori is a “must use.”
Town Boy (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: B-
Used as a workmate for Hot Rod Charlie (6f, 1:14h, out to 7/8 pole), breaking off a few lengths in front and then proving no match late but was not asked and did okay under the circumstances, a little more than length back at the wire with splits of :24.3, :37 flat and 1:02.2. In good shape and should fire a good shot if properly spotted.
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Big Creek (October 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: B-
Decent sort of gate drill while much best over an outclassed workmate, splits of :24 flat, :48 flat and 1:00.4 before coasting out six furlongs in 1:15.2, decent enough for maiden claimer in Hanson barn. Should have enough ability to act with moderate types in his upcoming debut. Worth a look in a soft spot.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-C Falls; 2-Vantastic; 8-Cotopaxi
Forecast: Vantastic turns back from a mile after a clever score vs. starter’s allowance foes at Del Mar when equaling his career top speed figure. The son of Vronsky has run well down the hill in the past and has speed figures that make him a strong fit in this first-level allowance event. We’re expecting this P. Eurton-trained gelding to be rolling in the final furlong. Catopaxi also shows the route-to-sprint angle and he was victorious the last time he ran short in an allowance race in England over an all-weather surface. He’s a non-winner since being imported to the States but all of his races on this side of the pond have been over a distance of ground. Perhaps he prefers to sprint? C Falls draws the disadvantageous rail post position, but he prefers to show speed and may find himself on or near the lead if he’s sent hard from the bell. A winner of two races from three career outings over the Santa Anita lawn, the son of Shackleford is yet another shortening from a router and in his present form is worth including on your ticket.
RACE 10: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Subconscious; 4-Hudson Ridge; 8-Rock Your World
Forecast: Though he hasn’t yet figured out how to consistently change leads, Subconscious improves with every outing and has proven to be a versatile sort that can win on the lead or from off the pace. He’s fast on figures, continues to train very well and appears ready for another forward move for R. Mandella. He’s 6-1 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the Twilight Derby-G2 and is worth a gamble at that price. Rock Your World returns to what we believe is his preferred surface – grass – and adds blinkers for the first time after finishing a strong second to Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1-bound Medina Spirit in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar in late August. A stakes winner over the lawn last winter that preceded his victory in the Santa Anita Derby-G1, the son of Candy Ride should be prominent throughout and have every chance to regain his winning form. Hudson Ridge had a rough trip as the favorite in the Del Mar Derby-G2 and wound up ninth, beaten less than four lengths. The son of American Pharoah is better than that, and with F. Prat riding him back the B. Baffert-trained colt can be dangerous over the same course and distance that saw him win the Cinema S. last spring.
Subconscious (October 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
In blinkers, ridden some but did well from the half mile pole to the 7/8 pole with splits of :22.4, :47 flat and 1:00 flat. In good shape, better on turf than dirt, gets tested for class next time.
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Hudson Ridge (October 27, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: B+
Breezed through the lane with power in solo training track drill, final three furlongs in :12.2 and :36 flat, quite sharp. Better than his last (troubled) race shows, can bounce back.
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Rock Your World (October 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B-
Inside Dubby Dubbie (same time), ridden through the lane to be head-and-head, splits of :23.1 and :48.4 from the half mile pole to the wire. Not terribly exciting, still think he’s much more comfortable on grass than dirt.
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