by Jeff Siegel
November 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bestrella; 3-Rev Rita; 5-Del Mar Drama
Forecast: Bestrella returns to her proper level, draws a good inside post, and with some help up front could be capable of producing the last run in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. The P. Gallagher-trained Irish-bred is winless in five starts since being imported from Europe but she’s a fit on numbers and makes a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli. Del Mar Drama exits an open $40,000 claimer and faces considerably softer company today while returning to the course that produced her only victory. She’s a one-paced grinding type but should be heard from late. Rev Rita projects as the controlling speed in her first try around two turns. The pedigree suggests she should be okay handling the extra ground so at 8-1 on the morning line the lightly-raced daughter of Orb is worth tossing in.
Del Mar Drama (November 8, Santa Anita, 4f, 48h TT). Grade: B
Looked nice in solo training track drill without ever being asked, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35 flat. In good shape and has a chance to improve with a class drop.
View Workout Video
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Bold Choice; 7-Professor’s Pride
Forecast: Bold Choice was overmatched when unplaced in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. just nine days ago but isn’t today with the return to the state-bred maiden ranks. The short rest is of some concern, but if the daughter of Grazen can duplicate her good second place performance at this level two races back she may be able to tag the speed close home. Professor’s Pride has recorded some good workout times in the a.m. for trainer E. Truman and may be able to run enough to be competitive first time out at 6-1 on the morning line.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Sumter; 3-Apprehend
Forecast: Apprehend had the misfortune of catching Corniche when the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner made his debut during the summer meeting and under the circumstances did extremely well to finish a clear second (almost four clear of the rest) while earning a powerful speed figure. The son of Arrogate switches to grass, and if he handles the lawn as well as the main track, he could earn his diploma despite the shortening in trip to five furlongs. Interestingly, F. Prat, who rode the P. Miller-trained colt in his debut, opts for Sumter, the R. Mandella-trained colt who failed to draw into the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf sprint. The son of War Front missed by a nose against a similar group at Santa Anita last month and seems very likely to be the controlling speed once again. We’ll still prefer Apprehend on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Doc Adams; 5-Rookie Year
Forecast: This $16,000 claiming main track miler restricted to 3-year-olds appears to have two main players. Rookie Year is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite based on a big class drop, a perfect one-for-one record over the Del Mar main track, and the switch to F. Prat. He’s not entirely trustworthy (off the board in seven of 10 career starts) but if he shows up with his best stuff the P. Miller-trained gelding probably will win. Doc Adams stretches out for the first time and has sprint numbers that make him competitive. Overmatched in a starter’s allowance dash last month at Santa Anita, the son of Vronsky should be on or near the lead throughout against this softer band, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket.
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sugary; 2-Freedom Lass; 8-Over Attracted
Forecast: Several of these are familiar with each other and are tough to separate, so we’ll go three-deep in this turf miler for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares and hope that’s sufficient. Sugary is fresh from a solid vs. similar last month at Santa Anita and returns at the same level for new trainer J. Wong following what may prove to be a timely claim. The barn hits at a powerful 26% with a massive ROI with this maneuver, so from her good inside draw the eight-year-old mare should have every chance to secure her eighth career victory. K. Desormeaux stays aboard and knows her well. Freedom Lass, drawn right alongside our top pick in the 2-hole, exits a series of stronger starter’s allowance events and is realistically spotted today while searching for her first 2021 victory. She’s competitive on speed figures, has run well over the Del Mar lawn in the past, and with the switch to F. Prat the M. Puype-trained filly should get the patient ride she prefers. Over Attracted, a solid runner-up behind Sugary last time out despite a less than ideal trip, looks the most dangerous of the deep closing types and with clear sailing should be in the fray in the final furlong.
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Durante was more than nine lengths clear or the rest when a big-figure runner-up to Barossa in a maiden main track miler at Santa Anita last month. The son of Distorted Humor increased his Beyer speed figure by 25 points off his maiden sprint effort the previous month, and while we don’t expect anywhere near the same type of forward move today the D. O’Neill-trained juvenile will have to regress considerably to get beat in this spot. At 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’ll not offer any real wagering value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Dancing Crane; 5-She’s Devoted
Forecast: Early speed more often than not is dominant in these five furlong turf sprints, and from her good inside post position Dancing Crane looks quickest of the quick. The light-raced daughter of Tapiture has been away since March but she can run well fresh (she won her debut), is a fit on numbers, and hails from a stable that has excellent stats with layoff runners. She should take them a long way under F. Prat. She’s Devoted, away since January, is another that won her career debut and therefore can be trusted to produce a big effort off the bench. She’s most effective as a late-running type and that style is up against it according to the course profile but we’ll have her on a ticket or two as a back-up for trainer R. Baltas, whose numbers with comebackers are off the charts.
RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Messier broke his maiden by six lengths last month and the margin could have been double (triple?) that amount had F. Prat let him run. The Empire Maker colt has since breezed flawlessly while preparing for today’s Bob Hope S.-G3 while giving every indication that the longer they go, the better he will be. Seven furlongs in the logical steppingstone to his year-end goal of the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 next month, so we’re expecting the B. Baffert-trained colt to settle behind his stable mates Kamui and Winning Map and then go on with it when given his cue. At 6/5 on the morning line, he’s a logical rolling exotic single.
Messier (November 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: A-
Did not wear blinkers and actually worked a full six furlongs from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole, breezing every step of the way with splits of :24.3, :36.2, 1:00.3 and 1:12.3, a ton left late for B. Baffert. Definitely strikes us as a route type, even though he broke his maiden at six furlongs. So far, he’s just scratching the surface.
View Workout Video
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Forecast: Basilia looks very much like the controlling speed in this $40,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Given her projected trip from a comfortable inside draw, the P. Miller-trained filly seems like a solid gamble in the win pool and as rolling exotic single. Reunited with “win rider” F. Plat, the daughter of Cinco Charlie is a fit on speed figures and shows a bullet five furlong drill (59 seconds flat) at San Luis Rey Downs nine days ago to have her right on edge.