by Jeff Siegel
February 13, 2022
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Keep Your Coil
Forecast: Keep Your Coil (TOC=Evens; ML=2-1) adds blinkers, is comfortably drawn outside in this five-runner affair, drops to her lowest level ever and should be able to handle this soft assignment either as the controlling speed or from a stalk-and-pounce position. However at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she offers little in the way of wagering value. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post: 11:29 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Youteyourhonor; 3-She’s Bulletproof
Forecast: This first-level allowance turf sprint for sophomore fillies boils down to two main players. Youteyourhonor (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) has won three of four career starts with steadily rising speed figures, but this will be her first try on grass. She has a good pace-stalking style and projects to enjoy a trouble-free trip; the main question is, can she duplicate her dirt form on the lawn? If she can, the C. Sise, Jr.-trained daughter of Danzing Candy will be hard to beat. She’s Bulletproof (TOC=Evens; ML=8/5), a clever debut winner over this course and distance last month, is certain to go off favored, and deservedly so. Though she probably didn’t beat a whole lot in victory, the daughter of Idiot Proof did it the right way and has done some good work at San Luis Rey Downs since raced to indicate she’s ready to step forward. Due to price considerations, we’ll put Youteyourhonor slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post: 11:59 PT Grade: X
Forecast: Lunatic (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for sophomore fillies and looks it on paper, though we couldn’t describe her pattern as healthy. After finishing second at 50 cents on the dollar in early December and being claimed by R. Hess, Jr., she’s been away for nearly 10 weeks (not a good sign) and isn’t being raised in class, so in handicapping this race it’s just a matter of whether you can trust her. In a race that offers no other real options, you can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet, pass.
RACE 4: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Bye Bye Bertie; 5-Buyback
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in this nine furlong starter allowance turf event for fillies and mares. Bye Bye Bertie (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) has won four of her last six starts, most recently earning a career-equaling speed figure in victory over this course and distance last month. The L. Powell-trained mare employs an ideal stalking style that ensures a trouble-free trip, so we’re expecting another big effort, one that makes her strictly the one to beat. Buyback (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) is worth including on your ticket as well. She’s a Northern California invader currently in excellent form, lands F. Prat, and can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. She’s a tad slower on speed figures than our top pick but is thoroughly genuine and consistent and has run well over the local lawn in the past.
RACE 5: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Head Start; 1-Coruscation
Forecast: Head Start (TOC=6/5; ML=6/5) looked pretty decent winning a maiden $40,000 sprint last month and since has been transferred to trainer R. Baltas, for whom she has put together a healthy, easy series of workouts to have ready for another top effort in this starter optional claimer for sophomore fillies. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera, projects to be on or near the lead throughout, and shouldn’t have any issue with today’s extra half-furlong. Coruscation (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) is the one to fear most. She adds blinkers after facing the boys last time out, retains F. Prat, and projects to be a strong pace presence from her rail post. The main push goes to Head Start but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotic.
RACE 6: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Win the Day; 1-War At Sea
Forecast: Win the Day finished second in a solid debut sprinting over the local lawn last month and today stretches out to a distance his pedigree suggests he’ll enjoy. The son of Midshipman settled off the pace, rallied wide and continued well through the lane in a race that hopefully will have him fit enough to step forward around two turns. War At Sea finished a nose behind Win the Day in that same race, adds Lasix, lands the rail, and should be forwardly placed in a ground-saving position and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. He’s had four starts, so perhaps he has a bit less improvement in him than our top pick but is major contender and a “must use” nonetheless.
RACE 7: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Unbroken Star; 3-Secret Touch
Forecast: Unbroken Star (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) missed as the favorite when second in a $20,000 seller last month and was a voided claim after the race. We’ll assume that whatever the issue was, it’s no longer a problem, because F. Prat stays aboard, and the veteran gelding is actually being raised a notch to $25,000 by trainer M. Puype. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Broken Vow has a good stalking style and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. Secret Touch (TOC=9/2; ML=5/2) tossed in a clinker when eased in a starter/optional $50,000 affair in early January, so this class drop is warranted. A repeat of his easy score at Del Mar two races back makes him dangerous and arguably the one to fear most.
Unbroken Star (January 31, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: B
In blinkers, swept on by Ekin (5f, 1:00.4h) and Neige Blanche (4f, :50.4h) through the lane under a nice hold looking quite sharp. Was a voided claim last time out but appeared perfectly fine here.
View Workout Video
RACE 8: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Keystone Field; 1-Irish Heatwave
Forecast: We’ll use two in the nightcap, a nine furlong $25,000 starter’s allowance event on grass for older horses. Keystone Field (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) has won two of his last three starts and seems well-spotted to continue his winning ways for the always-formidable team of R. Mandella and F. Prat. The veteran son of Candy Ride has strong recent speed figures, a healthy work pattern since raced, and a projected pace flow that should allow for a comfortable pace-stalking trip. There’s no reason he won’t fire another big shot. Irish Heatwave (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1), a four-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, is a versatile type that can be dangerous on the front end or from off the pace. He’s not quite as fast on figures as our top pick but given his projected ground-saving trip he’ll make his presence felt. The bulk of the play should go to Keystone Field, but both should be included in the various rolling exotics.