by Jeff Siegel
March 7, 2022
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Let’sgetlucky; 7-Hail Freedom
Forecast: Letsgetlucky (TOC=4-1; ML=2-1) has much going for him in this six furlong turf sprint for state-bred first-level allowance sprinters. He’s exiting better races, has the fastest speed figures, and ran very well when second in his only other outing on grass. We’re expecting the B. Koriner-trained son of Munnings to be on or near the lead throughout. Hail Freedom (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) is the one to fear most. The D. O’Neill-trained colt shows consistent form over the local lawn, retains F. Prat, removes blinkers, and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip outside and have every chance from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Letsgetlucky.
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Scream and Shout; 5-Season to Remember
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a modest restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Scream and Shout (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2), a distant second in a fast race in a slightly tougher spot, drops for the money run, has won over the local main track in the past, and should have a strong pace presence from her inside draw. She gets a very slight edge on top over Season to Remember (TOC=3-1; ML=8/5), a runner-up in her last pair in similar company and likely to settle just off the leaders in the second flight and then make her presence felt when the pressure is turned on.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 2-Mongolian Legend; 3-Sir Flatter
Forecast: Mongolian Legend (TOC=Evens; ML=8/5) was wide and dull as the favorite in a starter optional ($25,000) claimer last month but against this much easier group of restricted (nw-2) $16,000 foes the D. O’Neill-trained gelding seems likely to snap back to life. His career record (1-for-26) hardly inspires confidence, though. Sir Flatter (TOC=2-1; ML=5-1) stretches out again, but his form suggests he’s better around one turn. On numbers, he’s a fit, so we’ll toss him. In a race that probably is best left alone, we’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play, but if feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 4: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 1-Cool Acclaim; 9-Just About Enough
Forecast: Cool Acclaim finished a troubled fifth in his debut sprinting on grass earlier this meeting and as a first time gelding and switching to F. Prat seems likely to produce a significant forward move stretching out to a mile in this soft state-bred maiden event. The P. D’Amato barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle, and with his pedigree suggesting this two-turn trip will be more to his liking the son of Acclamation should be hard to beat. Though he's drawn poorly outside, Just About Enough is worth including on your ticket as well, at least as a back-up or a saver. The M. Glatt-trained gelding doesn’t have much of a closing kick, but if he can drop over, save some ground, secure a mid-pack position and get some cover, he could have a say in the matter.
RACE 5: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Martini Mischief; 4-Musica
Forecast: Martini Mischief has trained like a good sort for B. Baffert and looks live and well-meant in this maiden special weight extended sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Into Mischief has really never been asked in the a.m. while displaying good speed, so we’re expecting a major performance for barn that hits at an outstanding 28% with debut runners. Main guy Johnny V. takes the call. Musica is the best of the known element and should be included on your ticket, as well. A decent runner-up in her debut in late January, the daughter of Dialed In was worn down late by her next-out winning stablemate in a race that earned a good figure, and she did so despite a slow start, a wide trip, and failing to change leads. Second-time starters from the M. Glatt stable hit at a strong 20% while producing a flat-bet profit, so this daughter of Dialed In is very likely to produce a forward move.
Martini Mischief (February 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B
IN blinkers from the gate, stumbled at the start, recovered to display good speed while under a tight hold, continued well throughout without being asked and proved clearly best inside unraced (Molto Vita, worked under dam’s name, 5f, 1:00.2hg), splits of :23.4, :35.2, :47.1 and 1:00.1, something left late, rather nice. Daughter of Into Mishief appears plenty fit and should be a live item first crack out of the box for B. Baffert.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Cherubic Factor ; 2-My Summer Dream; 4-Commander Khai
Forecast: Cherubic Factor (TOC=3-1; ML-7/2) is racing in good form, has a prior win over this course and distance, and is solid in the speed figure department, so let’s put the P. Eurton-trained gelding on top in this starter optional claimer for older horses. A prototype late-running sprinter, the four-year-old gelding finished a willing third in a similar affair in late January in a race that was flattered when Cotapaxi came back to win again. My Summer Dream (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1) won a grass sprint vs. maiden $50,000 foes in mid-January and is protected today in a sign of confidence. The J. Mullins-trained gelding should settle just off the leaders and have dead aim when set down for the drive. Commander Khai (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) always has been vulnerable under pressure, but he adds blinkers as the likely controlling speed in his first start since returning from Oaklawn Park and shows a series of sharp recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready. The R. Baltas-trained gelding could take this field a long way if he can shake loose without having to be sent hard.
RACE 7: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Quick Buck; 2-Franklin One Star
Forecast: Quick Buck (TOC=Evens; ML=4-1) was a stylish debut winner over this track and distance last month and appears capable of winning on the raise in this state-bred optional claimer that finds him drawn comfortably outside in the field of six. The M. Glatt-trained gelding may be quick enough to make the lead, though the option is there to stalk and pounce should the pace flow dictate that strategy. Though we’re not quite sure why, Johnny V. takes over for F. Prat. Franklin One Star (TOC=9/2; ML=5/2) returns to dirt and won his only start on the main track in his debut in December at Los Alamitos, so the surface switch should not be a concern. The Danzing Candy gelding had a rough trip when a willingly third in a turf sprint last time out and should be capable of better today with a clean trip.
RACE 8: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 9-Rhea Moon ; 2-Eleuthera; 8-Duvet Day
Forecast: The finale is a maiden turf miler for sophomore fillies that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Let’s try to beat morning line favorite Annie’s Song, who just failed to seal the deal at even money in a similar affair last time out despite having every chance with a perfect trip. You can use her if you like. Rhea Moon has trained well for her U.S. debut for P. D’Amato, whose record with these Euro-imports has been outstanding (24% off the plane). She gets F. Prat and Lasix and hit the board in both of her starts last summer overseas. Outside post and all, she’s the one to beat. Eleuthera removes blinkers, returns to the maiden ranks, where she belongs. She has been the victim of some strange race management decisions by her connections (sprinting on dirt vs. colts, really?) but she continues to train well, so we suspect the daughter of Square Eddie hasn’t shown anywhere near her best form just yet. Duvet Day finished in a dead-head with Annie’s Song last time out but may have more upside and seems likely to continue her improving pattern as she acclimates. The Irish-bred filly should be running on strongly through the lane. .
Rhea Moon (February 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
Worked outside Virulente (same time) in training track drill for P. D’Amato and was even but best while finishing under a tight hold and with plenty left, final half mile on our watches in :24.1 and :49.1. Hit the board in two Irish outings last summer in good company and should be extremely live with maidens in her U.S. debut. Decent type, at least.
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