by Al Cimaglia
December 17, 2017
Rosecroft Raceway concludes the weekend with a 13-race card. The headline event will take place in Race 8, an Open Handicap Pace with a $10,000 purse. My betting strategy is below, as well as comments for the entire field of the feature race.
Last night, at Rosecroft the driver with the hottest hands was Frank Milby who had three trips to the winner's circle. There were not any trainers credited with more than one win.
At the Big M on Friday night the posted Pick 4 ticket was a bust. I had a feeling things would not go well when my picks came 2,3,4, in the first leg and it didn't get any better. It was a washout for my selections and there were not many who were dialed in as the (4-5-4-9) combination paid $20,607.95 on a 0.50 wager.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 8-Open Handicap Pace
1-Jeremes General (7-1)-Steps up and does struggle at this level. If gets the top will need softer fractions.
2-My Last Chance (10-1)-Probably in too deep. Needs a good start and may get sucked around to hit the ticket.
3-JW Renegrade (8-1)-Winner of 3 in a row faces stiffer competition. Another who could slip onto bottom of ticket.
4-White Rolls (12-1)-Most likely not in the mix versus these with posted driver in the bike.
5-Abelard Hanover (9/2)-Stamina has been an issue when at this class, but will respect chances for gimmicks.
6-Rocktavius (4-1)-Gets usual pilot back tonight and starts inside of main foes. Will look to key at a square price.
7-Kiss A Dragon (3-1)-Coming from deep in the backfield isn't easy. But this guy keeps coming, best to respect.
8-Rock N' Roll Jet-Winner of 3 in a row has been great, but will use others on top of the ticket tonight.
My key will be #6-Rocktavius and will use in exactas, if the odds are 4-1 or higher I will bet to win as well. Also giving respect to #7-Kiss A Dragon, and I will box the 6-7 combination for my largest wager.
The inside post positions horses (1-3) will be used underneath #6, and the #5 and #8 will be used under Rocktavius in slightly larger bets. The #7-Kiss A Dragon will be used on top of the #5 and #7.
There's a balance to betting when playing tracks with smaller pools. For example, Rocktavius could be overlooked and the public betting focus might be on the #7 and #8. If so, that's a better opportunity for a return if in fact Rocktavius, as the key play, hits the top of the ticket with longer odds. So, bet size needs to be scrutinized closer to post time.
Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia.