by Jeremy Plonk
July 2, 2018
Who doesn’t like holiday gifts? Let’s unwrap four plays on the Fourth of July that hopefully will create some fireworks in our accounts this Wednesday. Stats from the Betmix database were culled to find the fits.
Gulfstream Park Race 5 (2:47PM ET) - #9 Yo No Se (8/1)
Claimers hit the turf, and ex-stakes performer Diamond Majesty drops to the absolute bottom for $10,000 while still seeking his second lifetime win. As the likely favorite, he can win without me. Give a long look at 8-1 morning line proposition Yo No Se, who just missed at this level last time out at 10-1. Trainer Yvon Belsoeur has found the groove since the big barns shipped out of Gulfstream. Consider a remarkable 8: 3-3-0 record in turf claiming races since mid-May. This appears a solid win-place play.
Ellis Park Race 5 (3:42PM ET) - #6 Lemniscate (7/2)
True, Steve Asmussen won 10 baby races at Churchill Downs en route to the recently completed meet title. So, who’s left … especially with Saratoga looming? At Ellis Park, Asmussen has hit only 13% with 2YOs over the last 5 years with a big flat-bet loss. So his 5-2 morning line favorite World could be a potential underlay and give value elsewhere. Kenny McPeek scores 23% with his Ellis babies during the same span and Lemniscate debuts with the region’s hottest pilot aboard in Brian Hernandez, Jr. He and McPeek are 29% together in recent weeks. They teamed for a solid opening-day 2YO debut second at Ellis on Sunday. I’ll play Lemniscate to win and box in exactas with rail-drawn Knicks Go, who is working fast in the a.m. for a Ben Colebrook barn that had a win and a fourth from two debut 2YOs last summer at Ellis.
Belmont Park Race 8 (5:18PM ET) - #3 Data Dependent (4/1)
In this turf mile allowance, the numbers all align for Data Dependent, 4-1 on the morning line. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano are a sparkling 5-for-9 together (all 9 in the exacta!) in Belmont Park turf miles with offspring of More Than Ready since 2015. The last time this colt saw a turf mile at Belmont, he broke his maiden in October. The hope here for any price is that morning line choice Amertume continues a slow turf meet for Todd Pletcher (4-for-34, 12% wins/29% in the money) that includes 5: 0-0-0 in turf miles. I’ll take a straight win play on Data Dependent and recommend as the key in multi-race wagers.
Los Alamitos Racecourse Race 5 (5:58PM ET) - #2 Run Like Rhett (6/1)
Massive class droppers Ralis and Plum Dandy likely will take more than their fair share of the action at this paltry $16,000 level. I’ve got another alternative. Claimers moving turf-to-dirt at Los Alamitos have a sterling 21% win rate here since 2015. Late-running Run Like Rhett fits the bill for Andrew Lerner and Brayan Pena. That duo teamed for a good second here in November with a similar turf-to-dirt claiming move at this mile trip. While Pena is a 13% rider at Los Al, he’s shown a ridiculous 59% flat-bet profit, popping several big-priced winners – including a trio of 1-mile upsets that paid $50-plus. I’ll dig in with a win-place play on Run Like Rhett.