by Brian Nadeau
July 5, 2018
Let’s try and win back some of the beer and hot dog money we spent on the 4th of July with a play in Friday’s Pk5 at Belmont, just a few weeks removed from our backup $6 play hitting for $781. Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, going forward I’m going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. ***
Race 1: 3up 50k starter-allowance at 1-mile on the Widener turf
I’ll be leaning on the favorite, #5 FACT CHECK (9-5), since not only is he the best horse and enters off a close 3rd at the level behind a pair of next-out winners, but he owns a big tactical edge on his main rival #2 Herecomesyourman (7-5).
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 5
The aforementioned HERECOMEYOURMAN is a surprising favorite on the rise after a fast 2nd against N2L foes last time and figures, but his lack of speed in what looks like a paceless race is a real worry. I’m actually going to take a stab with #1 TOO MUCH DATA (6-1), as he could be the controlling speed on the stretchout with an aggressive ride, and he wasn’t that far behind Fact Check last time, in what was his first start facing winners.
Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): 1,2
Race 2: 3upfm 20k MCL at 6 ½ furlongs
There’s not much here to prevent #1 MONEY PURSE (1-1) from breaking through, as she’s been facing better and just doesn’t meet much in her return to the main track. I’ll use #2 NEON (2-1) as well, since she drops and adds blinkers, and isn’t far behind the top pick on paper.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2
Anyone outside the top pair would be a reach and a bit implausible, so we’ll stand alone with the two heavy favorites.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Race 3: 4up 100k State Dinner at 1 1/16 miles
Another race with a heavy, deserved favorite, as #3 TIMELINE (1-1) seems best here after winning second-off the long layoff last time. It’s also a big coup that he seems much better suite for this trip than his main rival, #1 Sunny Ridge (8-5).
Pk5 A horses: 3
There’s little doubt SUNNY RIDGE can win this, but he’s done his best work going longer than this, and at two turns, so he looks up against it here, though throwing out Jason Servis can be very bad for a bankroll, so let’s use him defensively.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Race 4: 2f MSW at 6 furlongs on the inner turf
The one true spread race in the sequence looks wide open on paper, and with concise opinions early, I can afford to use a bunch here in the hopes of securing a price. In order of preference, I’ll use #8 SPEEDY SOLUTION (9-2), who has some big works for this debut for Ward; #6 ANDREA’S PRIDE (7-2), who was 2nd to a good one and has the benefit of a trial run; #2 KINTRA (4-1), a well-bed firster for Thomas; #5 GLOBAL EXCHANGE (10-1), who has a few sneaky-good works for Toner, who can be potent on turf; and #4 MISS TECHNICALITY (8-1), a Gio Ponti filly who has shown some firepower in the morning.
Pk5 A horses: 8,6,2,5,4
There’s some longshot appeal on the B-level too, as #1 TRISH THE DISH (8-1) may have tipped her hand with that big bullet drill 6/15; #9 SOUTH OF FRANCE (6-1), who was slow on dirt for Pletcher but is bred for this; and #3 ISABELLA’S JOY (12-1), who goes for a Gleaves barn that has already popped with a pair of 2yo firsters here at the meet.
Pk5 B horses: 1,9,3
Race 5: 3up 12.5k claimer at 6 furlongs
Budget players will single the Jacobson entry, especially since #1 HEY JABBER JAW (4-5) lays over this field on class and figures, but he was an uninspiring 2nd off the claim last time, now drops and goes for an ice-cold barn. I’m putting him on top, but not standing alone with him, as #4 SARATOGA HEATER (7-2) might be poised to post the mild surprise on the return to the main track, as he was a good 2nd when last seen on the dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4
I admit I have no idea what to expect from #5 GETOFFMYBACK (6-1), as he was awful last time, but he does go off the claim for Diodoro, who has been known to work wonders with these types, and a return to form puts him in the mix here.
Pk5 B horses: 5
The main A ticket is 1x2x1x5x2 for just $10, and that’s our starting point. But by adding in our B horses in with the A’s in the other legs, we can get more coverage and allow for some margin for error too. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets are a more cost conducive way of getting added coverage, without breaking the bank; if we played both the A’s and the B’s together, the ticket (3x2x2x8x3) would cost $144, which essentially makes the stronger opinions the same as the weaker ones, whereas this is a much more reasonable $51. I’m also an advocate of playing you’re A ticket for $1 (or more), especially in this instance, so you capitalize if you handicap it out of the park.
Main Ticket: 5 with 1,2 with 3 with 8,6,2,5,4 with 1,4 = $10
R1 B Backup: 1,2 with 1,2 with 3 with 8,6,2,5,4 with 1,4 = $20
R3 B Backup: 5 with 1,2 with 1 with 8,6,2,5,4 with 1,4 = $10
R4 B Backup: 5 with 1,2 with 3 with 1,3,9 with 1,4 = $6
R5 B Backup: 5 with 1,2 with 3 with 8,6,2,5,4 with 5 = $5