by Brian Nadeau
August 29, 2018
As hard as it is to believe, Closing Weekend is here, so what better way to pad the bankroll than hit the Friday Pk5? Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, I’m now going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. ***
Race 1: 3upfm NYB MSW at 1 1/16 miles inner turf
There’s not much in the opener, though I’ll play for a mild upset with #5 DREAMERS AND ME, as Levine has had a good meet and rarely wins with firsters, but this miss was a fine 2nd turf sprinting at Belmont and should love the added ground. The obvious horse to beat is #1 CHICLET’S DREAM for Brown, though she’s burned a lot of money and will be a very short price once again.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 5,1
I’m not in love with either #2 BARREL OF DESTINY or #6 COPPERLINE, as the former seems destined to bounce off the good 4th over a bog in the local stakes, while the latter goes for an ice cold Casse barn off a very slow, but fast-closing 4th on debut, though I can use them since it won’t cost much on the B-level.
Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): 9,1E,8
Race 2: 3up N2L 16k at 1 1/8 miles
Like the 1st, the 2nd goes through Brown and doesn’t have much, and this time I will single his #4 APARTFROMTHECROWD, who was DOB in his comeback at Mth on the turf yet ran well to be 5th, drops and shows the best dirt form here.
Pk5 A horses: 4
If you’re not sold, which is understandable, then #5 PLAYRIGHT and #6 SINGLE GEM are the alternatives, as both have solid form and tactical speed, which is never a bad thing routing on the Saratoga main track.
Pk5 B horses: 5,6
Race 3: 3up NYC 25k MCL at 6 furlongs
Sooo, once again there’s not much here (are you getting the picture?), which is why I’ll single #7 GLOBAL IMPACT, who was an encouraging 3rd on debut, should only improve, has a ton of upside, and, unlike the rest of these, has yet to prove he’s going to be a lifetime maiden.
Pk5 A horses: 7
It’s probably not a bad thing that #4 MRY MR. WONDERFUL tries the main, as his last two turf runs weren’t much, and this will be the first time he runs on dirt for a tag, so he’s the backup, along with #3 ONE MORE TOM, who continues to drop to find his level and could wake up with blinkers today.
Pk5 B horses: 4,3
Race 4: 4upfm 80k/N3X at 1-mile on the inner turf
There’s little doubt #6 RYMSKA is going to be tough for Brown, as she’s won three straight stakes, but she also hasn’t been out since November and is meeting older for the first time, not to mention she has no speed and is prepping for some big stakes, so it’s worth trying to beat her, even though she is a must-use A. However, speed has been potent on the turf and #4 MALIBU STACY looks like a Lone F stretching out, has some solid numbers, and catches the chalk at the right time, so just maybe she gets brave and forgets to stop, which is why she’s the top pick.
Pk5 A horses: 4,6
Brown also runs #5 PENJADE, who looks like a lesser version of the favorite, as she too hasn’t been out since last year (December) and has no speed, so while she rates as a backup, she’s not on the same line as the top-2.
Pk5 B horses: 5
Race 5: 2yof MSW at 5/12 furlongs on the Melon turf
The final leg seems like the one race where you can think outside the box a bit, as all 10 entered have their merits and this looks wide open. I’m going with #9 ALTAR OF SPEED, as Joe Sharp has had a big meet and is 30% turf sprinting, along with #4 PARADISE RETAINED, since Servis is 34% turf sprinting and this one got some experience on debut on the main track, #7 SENDA, who didn’t fire on the dirt in her debut but is by Scat Daddy and the Mott second-time maidens have run well all meet, #5 QUIET COMPANY, who was nailed late in her debut on the main and worked a huge bullet on the training track a week ago, and #6 STELLAR AGENT, an Abreu More Than Ready firster with a slew of solid works showing.
Pk5 A horses: 9-4-7-5-6
Contention runs deep, so #10 MY GIRL ROCKET, #2 MISS LEAH ANGEL, #8 LADY GRACE, #1 MALIBU MISCHIEF and #3 PRINCESS TRINA all have to be considered for myriad reasons, and since we’re think early on, we can use them all and simply blanket this field.
Pk5 B horses: 10-2-8-1-3
This is the ole “less is more” ticket, as there’s not a lot here and I’ll try to hit it a few times, with backups just in case the main contenders get upset. I’ve preached in the past “don’t look for something that isn’t there,” and this is the type of sequence I’m talking about, as the favorites seem destined to rule the day. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets allow for some added coverage without breaking the bank, while allowing you to play you’re A-ticket for a good amount. Heck, you can even play the backups for more than $0.50, since they are very concise and don’t cost much to begin with.
Main Ticket: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 4, 6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $10
R1 B Backup: 2,6 with 4 with 7 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $10
R2 B Backup: 5,1 with 5,6 with 7 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $20
R3 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 4,3 with 4,6 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $20
R4 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 5 with 9,4,7,5,6 = $5
R5 B Backup: 5,1 with 4 with 7 with 4,6 with 10-2-8-1-3 = $10