by Jerry Shottenkirk
September 1, 2018
Scrambling through Pick 4 results, we often see decent payoffs, and when we look at the individual win prices, they can be quite skewed, in relation to the final payoff.
In other words, it really matters who loses. If you can beat 3-5 or 4-5 shots in the exotics, the others often pay more in the Pick 4 pool than they would when compared to the win pool, comparatively speaking. A 5-1 winner that upsets a 3-5 shot can pay like an 8-1 or 10-1 or more shot in the exotic plays.
If you can beat some favorites, you really can get a lot more than what you may envisioned.
That’s a possible scenario in the late Pick 4 on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
The sequence includes three stakes races, and the odds standout on the board is Capture Your Dream, a 4-5 morning line prospect in the Susan’s Girl Stakes. The daughter of Uncaptured is 2 for 2 and won the Desert Vixen Stakes as the 3-5 choice. As the distances get longer, the opposition seems get closer. She broke her maiden by 10 lengths going 4.5 furlongs, and she won the 6-furlong Desert Vixen by 1 1-4 lengths. The Susans Girl is 7 furlongs and it will be interested to see if she can be strong going distance.
Make no mistake about it, Capture Your Dream is on my ticket, but races for 2-year-old fillies going 7 furlongs can lend themselves to legit upset possibilities. And for that reason, Starship Nala is included. It doubles the price of a ticket as is, but generally when I add to a short-priced favorite I will eliminate a few from the spread races. Starship Nala was 5th behind Capture Your Dream in the Desert Vixen, but she has had a couple of nice works – including a 59-second breezing bullet early in the week. She is a great candidate for improvement.
Timmy T. is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Proud Man Stakes at 7.5 furlongs on the turf. While he is included on the ticket, this race is more than just him. Louder Than Bombs, who broke his maiden at this distance in his only starts, obviously warrants some attention, as does Harry’s Ontheloose, who stretches out from a maiden win at 5 furlongs.
Cajun Firecracker will attempt to remain unbeaten as he goes against Fully Loaded and Garter and Tie in the Affirmed Stakes. He won a three-horse driving finish over those two. Fully Loaded was 3-5 that day and is the 8-5 favorite here, and the 7 furlongs make for another exciting final furlong. Those three are on the ticket, and a potential upsetter in Elgin Escape is in the mix as well. He comes off a maiden win at 5.5 furlongs and can probably bring some late heat. If he upsets the apple cart, if will cause a nice Pick 4 payoff.
Here’s the suggested ticket for the late 4 at Gulfstream Park:
10) #1 Nailed It, #2 Ms. Violette, #5 Subtle Grace, #11 Dawn Lightning.
11) #2 Capture Your Dream, #4 Starship Nala.
12) #8 Louder Than Bombs, #9 Timmy M., #10 Harry’s Ontheloose.
13) #2 Fully Loaded, #5 Cajun Firecracker, #8 Garter and Tie, #10 Elgin Escape.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-2-5-11 with 2-4 with 8-9-10 with 2-5-8-10. ($48).