by Brian Nadeau
October 3, 2018
One Stronach 5 is in the books, and we came frustratingly close, as four of our five A’s hit ($8.20, $17, $16 and $11), and the one that didn’t paid $6.20. Very frustrating, but so it goes. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors. Last week’s opener got a very healthy 157k in the pool and paid an equally robust $9,888.30.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Santa Anita R3 (5:03 ET) – 2yof 40k MCL at 1-mile
The opener looks like a two-horse field, and in a sequence where I’m going to have a few spread races, I’m just using said two and calling it a day. The post really helps #3 IMPERIAL CREED (5-2), who takes a huge drop out of an MSW and a turf stakes, and while she has never run on the main track, she’s by Jimmy Creed and doesn’t meet much, so I’m not too worried. Her main rival, #9 QUEEN OF THE TRACK (2-1), is another MSW dropper and she has run on the dirt, but this post is just brutal, so she’s a bit tougher to trust, while also being the obvious danger.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 3,9
I’ll stand alone on the top line, especially since none of the others have really done any running in the afternoon. If you are looking to go deeper, then #5 Spice Curry (8-1) and #6 Twitterati (6-1) would be next on my list, though the gap from the top-2 is a big one.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (5:10 ET) – 2yof 16k MCL at 5 furlongs on the turf
This is a tough one, as only #4 FEATURE CREATURE (4-1) and #1 SPICED RUM PUNCH (5-2) have lifted a leg on turf, though they didn’t lift it very high. With that being said, they are the two I’ll lean on, as the others are that weak, go for low percentage connections, and, frankly, don’t look very good.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 4,1
The secondary runners are a lot tougher to trust, but I’ll go with #5 PRINCESS JULIET (15-1), #3 MISS SASSY’S BACK (10-1), and #2 SHALL RETURN (3-1), as they all have a few positives attached, should offer value, and won’t have to freak to beat my top-2.
Pk5 B horses: 5,3,2
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) – 3up AOC at 1-mile on the turf
It may not look it on paper, but #3 ASTOUNDING (5-2) is taking a big class drop out of much better in NY and wins this with anything close to his best, and the fact he’s not in for a tag says you can still expect a big run; if you’re on a budget, you could do worse than singling him. I’m also using #9 DREAM DOCTOR (7-2), who is the main danger, is proven locally and enters in good form as well.
Pk5 A horses: 3,9
I have a lot of respect for Trombetta, so the January layoff doesn’t really worry me about #1 BALTIC ART (6-1), and with this post and his speed, he should trip out nicely for a barn that is 21% off this type of break. I’ll leave it there, as far as backups go, though #12 Douglas Road (10-1) and #14 Brucarita (10-) both have talent, though their posts don’t help.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 4: Laurel Park R10 (5:54 ET) – 3upfm AOC at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf
The beauty of horizontal sequences is you can get some built-in value on runners you know won’t be anywhere near their ML price, and that’s the case with #13 MY SISTER CARO (9-2), who may well be 8-5 before she is 9-2, as she drops stiffly in class after trying stakes foes off the Sharp claim, and that AOC win at the Spa two-back wins this comfortably, so she’s the single, especially since she can stalk a race full of speed.
Pk5 A horses: 13
Serpe may be 0-for-12 off a 180+-day layoff, but #3 LIFE TIME CITIZEN (10-1) has some good turf sprint form and is another who will relish all the speed up front, so she’s a must-use in some capacity. I’ll also use #10 RACINGINTHESTREET (10-1), who has a hint of a rating gear and may simply be run off her feet from a wide draw, which will force her to stalk.
Pk5 B horses: 3,10
Leg 5: Santa Anita R5 (6:08 ET) – 3up 32k claimer at 1-mile on the turf
There’s not a ton of speed in the finale, so you better be close, which is why I’ll lean on #3 CIMPL MAN (7-2) and #1 LEWIS VALE (12-1), since they drew well and have shown some tactical speed in the past and the former figures to be favored off his current form while the latter’s two 1-mile runs make him a definite upset threat.
Pk5 A horses: 3,1
I’m not completely sold on #4 SECRETO PRIMERO (4-1), who may regress off the Hess claim (from Jones), but he has won 2-of-3, so I’m not tossing him completely. The wide draw did no favors for #10 UPPER ROOM (12-1), but he has been chasing the pace in dirt routes and the lone turf run showing wasn’t bad so he’s worth a price look.
Pk5 B horses: 4,10
Main Ticket: 3,9 with 4,1 with 3,9 with 13 with 3,1 = $16
R2 B Backup: 3,9 with 5,3,2 with 3,9 with 13 with 3,1 = $24
R3 B Backup: 3,9 with 4,1 with 1 with 13 with 3,1 = $8
R4 B Backup: 3,9 with 4,1 with 3,9 with 3,10 with 3,1 = $32
R5 B Backup: 3,9 with 4,1 with 3,9 with 13 with 4,10 = $16