by Brian Nadeau
October 10, 2018
Weekly Bankroll Builder—Attacking Friday’s Stronach 5
Wednesday, October 10, 2018 by Xpressbet Race Chat Host Brian Nadeau
We’re back to battle with the Stronach 5, after coming painstakingly close the first week and shooting a big air ball last week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors. The two pools have been very healthy and interest seems to be building, so swing away!
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West R7 (4:32 ET) – 2yof 20k MCL at 7 ½ on the turf
The opener is the first of two races in the sequence where I’m simply going to take the best horses I like on top and have no backups, as the others just don’t inspire and my top picks seem to have a decisive edge. They are #10 VELDT (6-1), who may well be the controlling speed under Paco Lopez in her turf debut, #3 SECRET O’LIFE (7-2), who drew much better than her two main rivals, and #11 BOX OF GOLD (4-1), who is probably best but really takes the worst of it at the draw.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 10,3,1
The rest seem a reach or a guess, so I won’t use them, though deeper tickets can look at #2 Paso a la Reina and Mesa Madeira (8-1).
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Santa Anita R3 (5:03 ET) – 3up 50k MCL at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf
No real opinion here, other than it looks like the obvious spread race in the sequence, so I’ll oblige and take a quartet of MSW droppers on the top line. You want to be outside going down the hill, which is why #8 KRIS’ WILD KAT (8-1) is my top pick off a useful return off the layoff, in what was his turf debut, and running as a first-time gelding won’t hurt either. There seems to be plenty of potential from #4 SEAHAWK WAVE (4-1), who was a solid 3rd on debut and should only get better, so he’s a must-use as well. I’ll also toss in #6 BAHAMIAN (4-1) and #1 DATA CENTRAL (4-1), who have had their chances but have also run as good as anyone else in here.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 8,4,6,1
I have no idea why #9 CAPALL (7-2) is the ML favorite facing these MSW droppers above, but he does have a chance, as does #2 ATONARUN (12-1), who is lightly raced and goes for Puype, 21% off a 180+-day layoff.
Pk5 B horses: 9,2
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park West R8 (5:09 ET) – 3up 30k N2L at 1-mile on the turf
We come upon the second race where I’m simply taking the three best and calling it a day, since I’d like to think the winner will come from #3 THE GREAT SCATSBY (6-1), who will improve second-off the long break and gets a ton of pace to run into, #6 WITHOUT REMORSE (5-1), another who will be rolling late, and #9 VICTOR LOUNGE (4-1), who broke his maiden for fun last time in NY and will get first run on the top-2.
Pk5 A horses: 3,6,9
The rest seem a big cut below, though #7 Art of the Dream (10-1) and #4 Congruity (9-2) are hardly impossible if you’re looking for more coverage.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) – 2f MSW at 6 furlongs
This appears a race that can be won by a firster if they have any talent and I have to think #5 SOUPER ESCAPE (5-2) has some, as she’s a Live Oak homebred by Medaglia d’Oro and has worked well for Trombetta. Just in case she may need one I’ll also use #8 CHINA CAT (4-1), who will like this easier group after chasing and tiring on debut at Saratoga.
Pk5 A horses: 5,8
The only other gal I need is #9 NIGHTLIFE (3-1), who seems to be improving, caught a few easy winners in her first two and has the speed to be pressing throughout.
Pk5 B horses: 9
Leg 5: Santa Anita R4 (5:36 ET) – 3upfm MSW at 6 furlongs
Mandella isn’t really known as a potent first-out barn, so to see #9 AMUSE (3-1) run so well going a tough two turns on the turf in her debut says she has a ton of talent, and the rest of these appear iffy, at best, so from the right attack post, she’s a single over what looks like a meek bunch.
Pk5 A horses: 9
For the sake of keeping things on a reasonable budget there will be no backups, but it’s also because I don’t really like anyone else and expect Amuse to move forward in a big, big way. If you’re going deeper than I am, then the obvious ones are #1 Tivat (7-2) and #6 Dancing Belle (7-2), along with #3 Giveherdalute (5-1) for Baffert fans.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 10,3,11 with 8,4,6,1 with 3,6,9 with 5,8 with 9 = $72
R3 B Backup: 10,3,11 with 9,2 with 3,6,9 with 5,8 with 9 = $36
R4 B Backup: 10,3,11 with 8,4,6,1 with 3,6,9 with 9 with 9 = $36