by Brian Nadeau
October 24, 2018
We’re back to battle with the Stronach 5, with a tough sequence stretching four tracks. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors. The pools have been very healthy and interest seems to be building, so swing away!
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West R7 (4:30 ET) – 2yo 20k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
We’ve got a single to start it off in #2 COME ON VENEZUELA (2-1), who has by far the best turf race showing, has been bet hard both times, and really woke up when the blinkers were taken off last time, and wins this if he runs back to his last start.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 2
As a general rule of thumb, it’s best never to trust the morning line at GP or GPW, and that holds true here, as you won’t sniff 20-1 on #3 SILVER COTTON (I’m thinking 6-1), who has a “good” number (for these) showing in his lone turf start and will make his first start on the grass for Rodriguez, who is 18% on the year, a much better number than Garcia, who was his trainer when making his career debut on the turf in August. I’ll also use #9 VIJAY (5-1), who takes the stiff MSW drop and would be competitive if he can run back to his July debut.
Pk5 B horses: 3,9
Leg 2: Santa Anita R3 (5:03 ET) – 3upfm MSW at 1-mile (turf)
You don’t really have to trust the two favorites, #9 DEARBORN (5-2) and #4 SUTRO (3-1), but you have to use them both, as they exit the best and by far the fastest race and were just a half-length apart, but you also don’t have to tie your wagon to them either. I’m very intrigued by #7 ARCTIC ROLL (5-1), who was facing winners in Europe, adds Lasix for her US debut and should offer value too.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 7,4,9
The rest of the proven runners seem like a reach, so I’ll go it alone with the top-3, though #5 Take a Leap (6-1) and #8 Kaydetre (30-1) look best, while #2 Miss Voluptuous (6-1) would be scary if she’s live on the tote, though Gallagher is 1-for-27 with firsters.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park West R8 (5:07 ET) – 3up Florida-bred AOC 5 furlongs (turf)
Tough sledding here, with a ton of would-be contenders in what looks like a wide-open race. I’ll use four on the A-line; #10 WEST OF EDEN (8-1), who drew perfectly and has a ton of speed, #3 KANTHAROS’ IMAGE (7-2), who has run twice in two starts off the Klesaris claim, #1 AMELIA’S WILD RIDE (7-2), who goes off the Cibelli claim and was facing better at Mth, and #2 HARRY’S GONE GRAY (6-1), who always seems to fire and will close late.
Pk5 A horses: 10,3,1,2
Facing winners is never easy, which is why #7 GREEN MANSIONS (5-1) is relegated to an underneath roll, even though his two turf sprints are strong. There’s some major price appeal with #6 FUZZY IRISH RASCAL (20-1), who may get overlooked but has run well in his last two turf sprints and will pass horses.
Pk5 B horses: 7,6
Leg 4: Laurel Park R10 (5:24 ET) – 3up 25k starter-allowance at 1-mile (turf)
This looks like a two-horse race between #6 SILVER DAGGER (3-1) and #9 BRICKYARD KITTEN (5-2), with the call going to the latter, who has won three straight and should get some pace to rally into. The former is a must-use too, but with some speed to his inside and outside, I just wonder if maybe he gets a bit leg weary late from chasing early.
Pk5 A horses: 9,6
Said pace will come from #1 Bay Bridge (8-1) and #5 HE’S ONE WILD DUDE (6-1), and I’ll only use the latter, as he gets a big break being drawn outside the former, and will like the class drop too. I know that #7 Prime Time Man (3-1) could be dangerous too, but his local turf win in May came against a weaker field than he meets here and his form seems sketchy since.
Pk5 B horses: 5
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R5 (5:53 ET) – 2yo MSW at 1-mile
If #3 YAK (5-2) had any synthetic experience he’d be a single (note below he is singled with the Leg 1 backups) since he’s been facing tons better in Southern California, but he doesn’t, though he has run on turf, which won’t hurt. The wide draw won’t help #9 EARNEST (3-1), but he too hits hard and that 3rd at LRC last time makes him a huge threat. The added ground should help #4 LUCK IS IN MY NAME (8-1), who was bet down to 2-1 when a distant 3rd here on debut and is bred to love a route.
Pk5 A horses: 3,9,4
Both #5 MAYOR COBB (9-2) and #6 LEGENDARY NIGHT (12-1) go for sharp local barns, took debut money, and are bred to love the stretchout, so they will be used, though they have some running to do to get to the top pair.
Pk5 B horses: 5,6
Main Ticket: 2 with 7,4,9 with 10,3,1,2 with 9,6 with 3,9,4 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 3,9 with 7,4,9 with 10,3,1,2 with 9,6 with 3 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 2 with 7,4,9 with 7,6 with 9,6 with 3,9,4 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 2 with 7,4,9 with 10,3,1,2 with 5 with 3,9,4 = $36
Leg 5 B Backup: 2 with 7,4,9 with 10,3,1,2 with 9,6 with 5,6 = $48