by Johnny D
October 25, 2018
If you think now is too early to begin handicapping Breeders’ Cup races then you’re horribly mistaken. While post positions haven’t been drawn yet, we’ve got a decent idea about which horses will be in what races. And if you’ve scanned that starting roster at all, you know how challenging picking winners Nov. 2 & 3 will be. That’s why the time to start handicapping the Breeders’ Cup is now.
I’ve actually been combing BC handicapping materials for a while now; digging into past performances; scribbling notes; reviewing workouts and race replays; scouring the Internet for opinions, observations and juicy rumors. I can’t get enough of it. There’s so much ground to cover and so little time. True, it’s my job. I’m paid to intimately follow racing. Then again, I’d do it for free but, please, don’t tell the suits at Xpressbet. I like the paychecks.
If you happen to have a real life outside of racing and also enjoy spending time with family, friends and pets--then you can’t afford to waste time. Ever. That’s why you need Xpressbet’s FREE Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide, available at Xpressbet.com beginning Friday (Oct. 26). It’s the best place in the world to begin handicapping BC without abandoning the rest of the universe.
The Guide contains so much information that it’s amazing Xpressbet doesn’t charge for it. It’s available FREE to everyone--account holders and heathens alike. Amazing. Especially when you consider that one ADW outfit actually restricts a certain pari-mutuel wager pool to account holders only. Sheesh! Xpressbet’s not like that. Not yet, anyway.
Xpressbet marketing gurus realize that if non-account holders visit Xpressbet to access FREE guides they just might hang around long enough to open accounts and to make a few wagers. Makes sense. Xpressbet’s been producing BC guides for 15 years and they’re our most popular ‘sellers.’ Technically-speaking, though, I suppose they’re actually ‘giveaways.’ Horseplayers return each year—like swallows to Capistrano—to access new Guides. And they often thank us. So, we’ve got that going for us, which, according to greenskeeper Carl Spackler, is nice.
What you have going for you--if you act appropriately beginning Friday--is the Guide. And this year’s roster of experts is mind-boggling! Especially if your mind ‘boggles’ easily. Suffice to say, we’ve got some knowledgeable experts: From XBTV there’s Jeff Siegel (Mile) and Millie Ball (F&M Turf); Santa Anita sends Megan Devine (Juvenile Fillies); Laurel loans Stan Salter (Juvenile Fillies Turf); Golden Gate grants Matt Dinerman (Juvenile Turf Sprint); NBC Sports delivers Nick Luck (Turf), Daily Racing Form dispatches Dick Jerardi (Sprint); HorsePlayerNow adds Bob Neumeier (F&M Sprint) and SiriusXM donates Steve Byk with his ‘two cents’ (Classic). Handicappers in the guide from Xpressbet are Jeremy Plonk (Turf Sprint); Brian Nadeau (Distaff); Brian W. Spencer (Juvenile Turf); Frank Carulli (Dirt Mile) and Jerry Shottenkirk (Juvenile). Whew!
As if that weren’t enough star power to both enlighten and confuse you, an updated guide version will be available Thursday, Nov. 1 and will include analysis and selections from former national television broadcaster and current VSiN host Brent Musburger (Juvenile, Distaff) and NBC Sports reporter and handicapper Eddie Olcyzk (Classic).
Daily, beginning Tuesday, Oct. 30, experts will update guide contributions based on post positions, defections, training, weather, etc. Yours truly will add to the mix --in this space and in the guide update section—Thursday, Nov. 1 with analysis, selections and suggested plays. Come Breeders’ Cup time there are so many outstanding horses in each race that it’s difficult to cull the herd. However, you can’t use ‘em all. At some point, you gotta break some eggs!
So, what else is in the guide besides expert analysis and selections for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races? Glad you asked. Was about to tell you, anyway.
The guide includes so many Stats & Trends and Know This material that after reading it you’ll become a Breeders’ Cup maven. That is to say, at the very least, you’ll be able to watch and wager on the ‘Cup with a modicum of intelligence. And isn’t that really all we desire?
In a word, ‘No.’ We want to cash tickets and to make money. Can the guide make that happen? Maybe. Maybe not. You never know unless you try. In fact, if you don’t get the guide there’s lots of BC stuff you won’t know about.
For example, did you know that no California-based female has ever won the BC F&M Turf? They’re zero-for-43 and counting. Why? Don’t know. It’s inexplicable. Especially when you consider that starters from Hall-of-Fame trainers like Charlie Whittingham, Bobby Frankel, Dick Mandella, Ron McAnally, etc. are included! Plus, since its inception, the BC has been a ‘home’ game many times for Golden State residents. You’d think at least one of them would have gotten home first…once.
Did you know that this will be the 9th BC at Churchill Downs? There has been a total of 73 previous individual BC races hosted in Louisville and the average winner has returned $26.14. A staggering 8 winners have paid $75 or more each for a $2 bet! Will that longshot trend continue? Who knows, but it’s nice to have a heads-up.
Guide info advises horseplayers that in the Juvenile Fillies Turf they should use Chad Brown runners (17-4-2-0 in just eight editions) and avoid Euro-based favorites (6-0-1-1). In the Juvenile Fillies look for bombs (6 winners at 30-1 or more). In the Juvenile Turf key Aiden O’Brien runners (15: 4-4-0, 4 wins in last 7 years). Remember that the last Juvenile favorite to win was in Shanghai Bobby in 2012--favorites have been second 8 times in last 11 years. Know that 3-year-old fillies are 31: 0-2-4 in the F&M Sprint. Turf Sprint runners campaigned exclusively overseas have finished out of the money in 10 editions.
I could list more gems, but then you wouldn’t get the Guide. Would you? And that’s really what this is all about. Don’t believe me? Read the headline. It says, ‘Get the FREE Guide.’ Capeesh?