by Brian Nadeau
November 7, 2018
With a 51k carryover in Friday’s Stronach 5 things are sure to get interesting and draw a large pool. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:55 ET) – 3upfm 5k at 5 ½ furlongs
The opener might look like a two-horse race between #4 VERY CHARMING (3-1) and #11 When It Reigns (7-2), but there’s a bit more here than meets the eye since the latter hasn’t run since December and faces winners for the first time, and only shows two published works, so she could be short, and/or damaged goods, so she’s a bit tough to trust. The former has the best recent form and figures and could improv with blinkers, so she looks best of a very weak group. I’m also going to use #6 BOURBONSTREETLADY (9-2), as she drops steeply in class and that middling form against better should play well here.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference: 4,6
You can’t totally dismiss When It Reigns, though the long layoff and lack of AM activity are big worries, so she’s not on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:05 ET) – 2f 50k OC/Starter-Allowance at 6 furlongs
Quite a toughie here, especially since #7 MRS. CREWS, who is 3-1 on the ML, comes off a complete no-show, albeit in a 400k two-turn stakes. She’s got to be used, as her sprint form is best, but sometimes they don’t come back like they left before getting drubbed. With that in mind, I’m going with #1 CORN OFF THE COB (8-1), since she has a stalking gear in a race with plenty of pace and should improve off her last, a good start in the slop while facing winners. Somehow #6 FIRST TIME PROUD (4-1) beat ‘Crews last time, which is a story since she was beaten almost 41 lengths, but she too is a player from just off the pace if she can run back to the easy win at GP two-back. I’m also using #4 MIDTOWN ROSE (9-2), who can stalk, and #2 SPIN THE GOLD (5-1), who was a fast debut winner on the lead and could be too good for these if she breaks running.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 7,1,6,4,2
The five above should be good enough to get us through, and the rest don’t inspire, so there will be no backups.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:25 ET) – 2f 50k MCL at 6 furlongs
The time is right for a single and #8 YESTERDAYSPLAN (2-1) seems to fit the bill, as her non-stakes races have simply been much better than these and now she drops in class and goes second-time Lasix, so it looks like diploma time.
Pk5 A horses: 8
The other reason for singling and going it alone is that there are countless fringe players who are tough to trust but could get there if the chalk regresses and/or they move forward. Horses like #1 American Star (12-1), #7 Nomocats (6-1), #6 Variance (8-1), and #3 Shake D Moon (15-1) all have upside or a race or two that makes them possible upsetters, while firsters #12 Mae Sai Princess (12-1), #11 Myladycharlotte (5-1), and #9 Molly’s Dolly (15-1) won’t have to be world beaters to contend.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park West R9 (4:38 ET) – 3up 16k N2L at 1-mile (turf)
We’ve got a heavy favorite in #8 VICTOR LOUNGE (7-5) and he will be tough to beat off that solid 3rd against better last time, but we also have a Lone F in #4 CONISTON (6-1), who looks loose as can be, was headed out while facing winners for the first time and can build on that run.
Pk5 A horses: 4,8
I’m a sucker for horses who get to the turf and explode, and #10 BETA MAX (15-1) did just that last time, as it was a breakthrough run off a dirt no-show and far, far better than he did routing on the grass for McLaughlin last winter.
Pk5 B horses: 10
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:15 ET) – 3up N1X allowance at 5 furlongs (turf)
Tough sledding in the finale but with a potential suicidal speed duel between #7 Sunrise Journey (5-2) and #8 J T’s A.T.M., it looks like this could fall apart in the lane, even going this short, so #1 SYNNIN (3-1) can make amends for failing at 6-5 last time after a wide trip. The horse to beat is #4 ELEGANT TANNER (2-1), who beat the pick last time and is another who will love the pace. Don’t sleep on #5 BIG LEAGUE (6-1), who is another that will close and will be a much better price too.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,5
I’ll begrudgingly use SUNRISE JOURNEY, since she split the top pair last time, but with ‘A.T.M. to her outside it’s going to be tough to better that run this time.
Pk5 B horses: 7
Main Ticket: 4,6 with 7,1,6,4,2 with 8 with 4,8 with 1,4,5 = $60
Leg 1 B Backup: 11 with 7,1,6,4,2 with 8 with 4,8 with 1,4,5 = $30
Leg 4 B Backup: 4,6 with 7,1,6,4,2 with 8 with 10 with 1,4,5 = $30
Leg 5 B Backup: 4,6 with 7,1,6,4,2 with 8 with 4,8 with 7 = $20