by Brian Nadeau
November 14, 2018
Another tough Stronach 5 is on tap for Friday, so let’s try and build the bankroll with a solid play. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:52 ET) – 2yo AOC at 7 furlongs
The opener seems like an impossible 12-pack, with most, if not all, having winning chances, but there are a few that may have some hidden form that puts them ahead of the pack. The first is #2 INVIGOROUS (5-1), who ran fast in to Monmouth sprint runs and should like the cutback today. The same can be said for #3 THATWOULDBEGRAND (6-1), as he’s been routing of late but looks the part off the three sprint runs to start his career. The last of the A’s is #11 MOUNT TRAVERS (5-1), who is lightly raced, improving, and has a stalking gear from an outside attack post.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 2,3,11
The B-line could contain all the rest, but we’ll limit it to just #12 REGALLY IRISH (10-1) and #6 BEYOND VICTORY (9-2), as both have run fast enough to win but also have a few question marks to answer that keep them off the top line.
Pk5 B horses: 12,6
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:05 ET) – 2yo 35k MCL at 5 ½ furlongs
Since we spread a bit in the opener I’ll just go with the two best in here, and that’s #1 BULLGRATS (5-2), who takes the MSW drop and runs as a first-time gelding, and #6 AACOUNTANT Q (3-1), who draws perfectly, has the best figures, and may have found the right group to break through.
Pk5 A horses: 1,6
Anyone else seems like a reach, as their form is suspect or they are firsters from weak barns, so I’ll pass on any B-level runners.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:22 ET) – 3up 5k claimer at 1 1/16 miles
It wouldn’t surprise me if budget players got a bit bold and singled #3 MYTHOS (4-1), since he seems to have the best form to begin with and now goes off the claim for Sillaman, a solid 16% move. He’s my top pick but I’ll also use #2 FEEL PROUD (6-1), who has been doing the turf thing of late but has a big-figure dirt race showing in May and should move forward in a big way second-off the layoff.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2
The turf-to-dirt angle might work for #7 ZEN’S LAND (5-1), as he’s been facing better for a potent Ness barn and has the right stalking/closing running style to take advantage in a race where the pace looks on the quick side.
Pk5 B horses: 7
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park West R9 (4:38 ET) – 2f 20k MCL at 7 ½ furlongs
The best two horses drew the best two posts, so it looks like #2 NARROWS BRIDGE (3-1) and #1 SECRET O’ LIFE (9-5) will be tough here, as the former makes her first start for Ward after facing better at Ellis Park, and the latter’s last two turf races will win this comfortably unless someone else jumps up unexpectedly.
Pk5 A horses: 2,1
We’ll stand alone here too, though #6 Britesideoftheroad (4-1) should improve with this better post, while #10 Mesa Madeira (12-1), who was close to ‘Life, offers plenty of value but drew terribly.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:15 ET) – 3up 50k starter-allowance at 5 ½ furlongs
The last leg is a lot like the first, in that it’s wide open and could be won by basically anyone entered, so I’ll look for a price and go with the speedster #4 IT MAKES SENSE (8-1), who adds Lasix, blinkers, and, most importantly, makes his first start for Martin, a huge 32% angle. If things get too heated up front then #12 CANNONBALL COMIN (5-1) will be the one to take advantage late, and he’s been 2nd in both starts at the level. The rise in class is a worry for #3 KING EDDIE (3-1), but he’s best on figures, enters off a solid win, and has a rating gear that will get him first run.
Pk5 A horses: 4,12,3
If you like ‘Cannonball then you have to give a look to #5 LUCKY ROMANO (12-1), who will be a much better price and wasn’t too far behind him of late. Facing winners is never easy but #9 ON TRUST (6-1) just finally broke through in a big way, will sit a nice trip, and could double up at nice odds.
Pk5 B horses: 5,9
Main Ticket: 2,3,11 with 1,6 with 3,2 with 2,1 with 4,12,3 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 12,6 with 1,6 with 3,2 with 2,1 with 4,12,3 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,3,11 with 1,6 with 7 with 2,1 with 4,12,3 = $36
Leg 5 B Backup: 2,3,11 with 1,6 with 3,2 with 2,1 with 5,9 = $48