by Brian Nadeau
November 21, 2018
Another tough Stronach 5 is on tap for Friday, so let’s try and build the bankroll with a solid play. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:54 ET) – 3up 8k starter-allowance at 5 ½ furlongs
The opener is filled with speed, and while they’re only going 5 ½ furlongs, the thinking is it still falls apart in the lane. I’m going to try and blow it up with #4 PAPACHO (20-1), who can close and fits nicely with these off his run two and three back. The obvious hors to beat is #6 SARATOGA WILDCAT (2-1), and he did rate a bit last time, so that would make him doubly tough, though there is some concern he gets fried chasing all the heat. Don’t sleep on #8 SCOUT’S HONOR (10-1), who does rise in class but will trip out and goes off he Maldonado claim, a sharp 23% angle.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 4,6,8
There will be no backups in the first leg, as all the rest want to be on the lead and seem destined to cancel each other out on the front end, so I’ll go it alone with the trio of A’s.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:05 ET) – 3upfm AOC at 6 furlongs
The second leg is a lot like the first, in that it’s loaded with speed, which is why I’m going with the obvious, #4 DAY BY DAY (5-2), who wins this if she runs back to any of Midatlantic races, though he does try the local strip for the first time, so he still has to prove it. My price play is #2 FRITTATA (10-1), as she settled nicely last time in his return to dirt and may be able to build off that and surprise here.
Pk5 A horses: 4,2
It’s going to be hard to win if you’re on or just off the lead but #8 BODY HIGH (3-1) does come in for Navarro, and we know the wonders he can work in these parts, so from an outside attack post, I’ll toss her in.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:24 ET) – 2f MSW at 6 furlongs
This looks like a race for a firster, as the proven runners don’t really inspire, so top honors go to #13 ANGRY OCEAN (6-1), who debuts for a potent DePaz (28% with firsters) and tipped her hand with that 11/15 bullet. Experience is never a bad thing, so you have to use #14 MISS PHILLY DILLY (3-1), as she is best on paper and will like the drop out of the stakes ranks. Lastly, I’ll toss in #1 FASHION FAUX PAS (6-1), since she dueled and tired on debut but now adds Lasix for Delacous, who is as sharp as they come.
Pk5 A horses: 13,14,1
Price players can look to #11 CORNETTA’S CHOICE (10-1), who passed a few late in her debut when 4th behind a rousing winner and should improve.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park West R9 (4:38 ET) – 3up 10k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
It’s now or never time for #7 SHANGHAI STORM (2-1), who improved in a big way in his first start for Ramirez and simply looks a lot better than a very weak bunch.
Pk5 A horses: 7
No one else comes close to ‘Storm’s race, so it’s tough to think anyone can jump up enough to beat him, so there will be no backups.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R5 (5:15 ET) – 2yo 12/5 MCL at 6 furlongs
Budget players will be singling #7 MO DINERO (2-1) on the drop from Santa Anita for Hollendorfer, though he’s never run locally, so that could be an issue. He is a must-use, but I’ll also add in #5 TICKETED (9-2), who takes the stiff drop from the MSW ranks and won’t have to improve much to win.
Pk5 A horses: 7,5
You won’t get the 60-1 you got in #8 HENNESSY ON TAP’S (10-1) debut, but that big price will scare some off here and you may get this ML, even though he was a good 4th and can improve. I really don’t want to use #4 MY LITTLE FAT BOY (3-1), who would be a massive underlay at this price, though he does drop and that could wake him up.
Pk5 B horses: 8,4
Main Ticket: 4,6,8 with 4,2 with 13,14,1 with 7 with 7,5 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 4,6,8 with 8 with 13,14,1 with 7 with 7,5 = $18
Leg 3 B Backup: 4,6,8 with 4,2 with 11 with 7 with 7,5 = $12
Leg 5 B Backup: 4,6,8 with 4,2 with 13,14,1 with 7 with 8,4 = $36