by Brian Nadeau
December 5, 2018
Finally some success last week, as the updated tickets (via Twitter) produced a $4,777 score to lift some spirits after a lot of close calls throughout the season.
To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (4:22 ET) – 3up AOC at 5 ½ furlongs
I’ve got a ton of respect for the job Lacey Gaudet does, and where she spots her horses, so I’m thinking #6 DYNAMIC ASSET (6-1) may be primed in his comeback, especially since he was a solid early-season 3yo and now runs as a first-time gelding. With a spirited pace inside, #10 MR. FIXIT (5-1) will be sitting an ideal trip and get first run and that sharp 3rd at the level off the Magee claim last time says he fits nicely here. The pace will help #7 HIGH ROLLER (5-1) as well, and while he didn’t fire last time, he may bounce back today at a solid price.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 6,10,7
I’m going to go out on a limb here and play against the speedy #1 Taco Superman (9-2), who got necked out in 2nd last time while beating ‘Fixit, and #5 Onemoregreattime (4-1), who can run big on his day and will be pressing from the outside, simply because I think they will duel the entire way and set this up for the top trio.
*** TAKE NOTE that if one scratches, the other moves up to a definite A.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:36 ET) – 3upfm N1X at 7 ½ furlongs (turf)
Most people will be singling #9 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME (9-5), as she’s the definite class and a very likely winner, but she also drew terribly and has no speed, and those are not good combinations over this turf course, so while she’s a must-use A, there might be someone better to play on top, at a much better price too. which leads me to #7 RIVERSIDE WALK (10-1), who is an admitted stab but has some good Euro form, took a ton of money (3-1) in her US debut then didn’t fire, though she could now be better acclimated to US racing and gets top local turf jock Gaffalione too.
Pk5 A horses: 7,9
With a strong favorite and another A-level horse, I don’t want to go too deep on any backup tickets, so the lone B is #1 TAPPING COLORS (5-1), who finally broke through last time, drew perfectly for this, and won’t have to improve much to double up. There are also countless other fringe contenders you can use here, which is another reason, especially on a budget, that it doesn’t make sense to go any deeper.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:45 ET) – 3up 5k MCL at 5 furlongs
It’s tough to think too outside the box here, as #1 OUREAGLEHASLANDED (5-2) and #6 HOT’N NOTTY (2-1) seem best of a very weak bunch, and they seem to get a good race flow to settle off of as well. I’ll go with the latter, based on his post and the fact he’s lightly raced and has a lot of upside, even though the class drop will certainly help the former.
Pk5 A horses: 6,1
There’s really only two viable backups but they may cancel each other out up front, which is why I’ll only use #10 EXCLUSIVE CODE (7-2), who has the benefit of the outside draw and can press/chase #5 Wyoming Chief (6-1), who will take all the worst of it as the inside speed.
Pk5 B horses: 10
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:06 ET) – 2yo Florida-bred MSW at 6 furlongs
I don’t think I’m being too bold by singling #13 WINNING DRIVE (7-2), as he was 2nd at 7-10 against open maidens on debut at Del Park for Servis, who wins at 30% with about everything he does, and is 12-for-24 at GP with Irad Ortiz riding, though you might want to expect more like 9-5 than the 7-2 ML (that’s not the first, or 124th, time this meet you’ll see a weak ML).
Pk5 A horses: 13
The drop into the Florida-bred ranks will also help #2 SEISMIC JOLT (5-2), who has been bet hard and run well in both his starts, but they came on turf, and from a tricky inside draw while trying dirt, he may need one. There are others you can use, most notably #7 He’s Smokin Hot (9-2), #5 Beau Trace (12-1), and #3 Followhisfootsteps (8-1), but it looks like ‘Drive is a cut above and ‘Jolt is closer to him that the latter trio, so I don’t think it’s prudent to go too deep.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:15 ET) – 3up 3.2k claimer at 5 ½ furlongs
The finale is all about #7 PREACHER’S BLUFF (8-5) and whether or not you think he’s a single in what otherwise looks like a weak race. His fans will say he won at the level two-back with a big number and fired another good shot on the turf last time. The naysayers will point out that neither of those runs was on the Tapeta and he spun his wheels a bit, albeit against better, when last seen on the surface three-back. I’m somewhere in the middle, while realizing he’s a must-use A here. he’s not my top pick though, as that goes to #2 UNION LEGEND (7-2), who looks like the controlling speed in a race with surprisingly not a lot of it, and he certainly won’t have to work as hard as he did last time when chasing a wicked 44 3/5 half-mile.
Pk5 A horses: 2,7
I’m not in love with any of the others, though Hollendorfer did come through for me last week at a price, so I’m going to use #6 GLOBAL HARBOR (15-1) on the cutback, as that two-turn form could give him plenty of foundation here, and he’s got a lot of tactical speed as well.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Main Ticket: 6,10,7 with 7,9 with 6,1 with 13 with 2,7 = $24
Leg 2 B Backup: 6,10,7 with 1 with 6,1 with 13 with 2,7 = $12
Leg 3 B Backup: 6,10,7 with 7,9 with 10 with 13 with 2,7 = $12
Leg 4 B Backup: 6,10,7 with 7,9 with 6,1 with 2 with 2,7 = $24
Leg 5 B Backup: 6,10,7 with 7,9 with 6,1 with 13 with 8 = $12