by Brian Nadeau
December 20, 2018
We forge on with this week’s Stronach 5, which looks impossible early, so a bit payoff could be in the offing. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (3:50 ET) – 2f 25k MCL at 6 furlongs
As mentioned, the first two legs are a bear, so I’ll be spreading as deep as I can, which is why I’ll have four A’s and four B’s. The drop from the MSW ranks and running with second-time blinkers should help #8 WEEKEND FLYER (8-1), who was a distant 9th behind a repeat winner off the Frock claim last time. Toss the slop run last time from #7 YESTERDAYSPLAN (4-1) and she’s got form good enough to win this, and the fact she now goes off the Gonzalez claim (30%) says she may blow up here. The MSW drop, cutback to one turn, and running second-time Lasix all should help #3 ALLISON K (6-1), who still has plenty of upside after just two starts. Lastly, #11 SILVER SIDES (10-1) will offer value and goes off the claim for Geralis, which is a small but so far potent 2-for-4 angle.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 8,7,3,11
Firsters #4 CORE AND JAS (15-1) AND #1 DINNER BABY (6-1) lack experience but start for Gorham and Ness, respectively, and both have big numbers with firsters (22% and 25%), so don’t ignore them, especially if the money shows. The price will be underlaid on #5 ROSURI (9-2), who may well win one of these, but seems to be running in place, while #13 TUFFY’S WAY (10-1) continues to drop to find her level and isn’t without hope on paper.
Pk5 B horses: 4,1,5,13
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (4:05 ET) – 2f 12.5k MCL at 5 ½ furlongs
This is more a line in the sand race, as you could use seemingly dozens here or go small, and I’ll narrow it to two on the top line; #4 ONE’S NEVER ENOUGH (15-1) and #7 ENOUGHANDTHENSOME (7-2). Don’t get scared by the ML on the former (she may be favored), as it’s ridiculously off (go figure at GP), as this gal drops from an MSW at FL, where she earned a solid figure (for this group), and now heads into Figgins’ barn, a huge upgrade over former trainer Breed. The latter also hits hard on her modest form and probably wins this with any of her three prior runs.
Pk5 A horses: 4,7
If #1 DANAL (8-1) didn’t draw the rail she’d be an A, but this is a tough spot for a runner who may duel the entire way. Conversely, the outside draw helps #9 MADELYN’S DANCER (4-1), who has nine chances but still hits hard against a group like this.
Pk5 B horses: 1,9
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:21 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L* at 5 ½ furlongs
With a lot of coverage early I’m just taking the two best runners here and hoping they get me through, as #5 KATIE’S REWARD (3-1) and #6 ON THE HOP (5-2) just look best of a weak bunch, both have speed to sit a trip, and exit solid local runs at the level.
Pk5 A horses: 5,6
Obviously you can use more here, as #8 Musabaga (10-1), #9 Rockin Ruth (9-2), #4 Shipmans Magic (8-1), #7 Doit for Spite (10-1) all have their merits, but I’ll make them all prove it over the top pair, who simply look better.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:36 ET) – 3up Florida breds AOC at 1-mile (turf)
This is another deep race and I’ll only go to the top line, as #1 EXPECTED RULER (4-1), #2 SEATTLE TREASURE (4-1), #8 BLUE LUTE (7-2), and #9 ZAP DADDY (3-1) look a cut above, but the former two get a huge edge on the post draw, while the latter take all the worst of it from the parking lot, with an extremely quick run to the first turn.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2,8,9
You could also use #5 Trumpi (8-1), as his Midwest form is close to these, but he does face older for the first time and has just one win, so let’s make him prove it.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:06 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 5 ½ furlongs
I’m not in love with 0-for-10 runners but I think #4 SENSATIONAL ZIP (4-1) is a little different, as every start has been in the MSW ranks, he’s just 0-for-4 on dirt, and now makes his first start for De La Cerda, which is a big 21% move; he’s our single in a very weak finale.
Pk5 A horses: 4
The next group would include #11 Fulgencio (9-2), #9 Dr Dudley (12-1), and #5 Amanecer (5-1), but all have holes and aren’t as good as the pick, and don’t figure to improve like him either.
Pk5 B horses: 10,6
Main Ticket: 8,7,3,11 with 4,7 with 5,6 with 1,2,8,9 with 4 = $64
Leg 1 B Backup: 4,1,5,13 with 4,7 with 5,6 with 1,2,8,9 with 4 = $64
Leg 2 B Backup: 8,7,3,11 with 1,9 with 5,6 with 1,2,8,9 with 4 = $64