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July 23 - Hawthorne Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

July 23, 2017

Hawthorne closes out the weekend with a .50 Late Pick 4 which has a $20,000 guaranteed pool and begins in Race 8. Every night seems to be good night for leading drive Casey Leonard, but on Saturday he had an exceptional performance. Leonard visited the winner's circle in six of the 11 races. Trainer Tom Simmons captured two races, which was best among his peers. 

Sometimes it is best to look deeper into the highlighted horses, beyond only playing a Pick 4 ticket. On Thursday night, my posted Pick 4 ticket at Hawthorne was good in only three of four legs. But contained in the selections were some nice exactas and trifectas. 

In Race 7, the highlighted horses were 1-3-5-10 and the .20 trifecta (5-3-10) paid $111.36. The (5-3) exacta paid $203.80 on a $2 bet. In Race 8, the selected horses were 1-8-5 and the $2 exacta (1-8) paid $70.40 while the .20 trifecta hit for $12.88 on a .20 bet. In the final leg only two horse were highlighted, and the (9-7) exacta paid $28.60. It was a very nice payout considering the #9 went off at 3/5. 

Tonight, my focus will be on the Late Pick 4, comments and selections below are based on a fast track. 

Race 8 
2-Libby's Idea-Has been racing well and now gets post relief. Leonard's choice over two others is a major player. 
3-Hope Hotspur-Drops out of stakes company and tries lasix for the 2nd time, might be overlooked at the windows. 
7-Roll To Glory-Raced evenly in last but if repeats the 7-9 performance, it could be good enough for a picture. 

Race 9 
2-Rousey Randa-Beaten favorite made a break in last but can knock-off this field if minds manners. 
5-Do You Dare-3/2 program favorite is looking for third straight and gets post relief. Major threat, will be a very short price. 
10-C Far-Trip dependent 3-year old takes a meaningful drop and if race sets-up could surprise at a square price. 

Race 10 
2-Windian-Will respect off a sharp effort from 8 hole in last. Best effort puts her in the hunt and is 11-1 in the ML. 
3-Dune Dame-Leonard couldn't get into the mix in a slow pace in last from the 8 hole...Watch out tonight. 
4-Fox Valley Charliz-Came out of same race as #3, slow pace also hurt her. Can improve and Oosting is back in the bike. 

Race 11 
3-Lotta Richess-Doesn't win much but does pass horses in the lane. Should be a big price, and if pace is swift chances go up. 
5-Citizen Kane-Oosting takes a seat for Willis and gets a good starting spot. Could be ready for a big try. 

.50 Late Pick 4 
Total bet=$27 

You can follow me on Twitter @AlCimaglia