January 25, 2019
Let’s try to build off our success last week, which saw a $30 ticket turn into $584. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (4:35 ET) – 4up 10k MCL at 6 furlongs
We start with a race with a ton of speed that looks destined to fall apart, so I’m going to hope that 0-for-12 runner #7 SEVENTYSEVEN FORCE (7-2) finally breaks through, as he has run well in five starts for Talley, though I readily admit he’s mighty tough to trust. I’m also going to use the wildcard, #9 NONNO PIETRO (8-1) who hasn’t run since October when he sprinted on the Tapeta at GG and will now try dirt for the first time for Lynch, who is just 1-for-20 with newcomers to the barn, but, if nothing else, this runner has plenty of upside and decent form off those two Northern Ca. starts.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 7,9
Fellow lifetime maiden #11 ZEPHYR TRAIN (6-1) is essentially a slower version of ‘Force, but he does have a hint of a rating gear, which will give him first run, so I’m begrudgingly using him. I have no idea where #12 BUSTER’S BROTHER’S (6-1) last race came from, but a repeat might win this, and he’s drawn wide enough that he will likely assume a stalking position. I may be bold (or stupid, or both), but I’m not using either #1 The Mason Factor (3-1) or #8 Telecommunication (6-1), as they will be way overbet off bad runs and they look like they will be pace casualties too.
Pk5 B horses: 11,12
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R10 (4:41 ET) – 4up 60k Starter Stakes at 7 furlongs
In what looks like a pretty straight forward class play, the seemingly universal single in the sequence is #5 UNO MAS MODELA (6-5), who held his own in the GIII Mr. Prospector last time, won a claiming crown stakes here two-back, and also aired in a CD stakes three-back, and the fact he gets 7Fs and a field with enough early speed says he’ll have no problem getting up in time.
Pk5 A horses: 5
No one in here has the firepower of the favorite, so we’ll go it alone. If you’re looking for a backup or two, #4 Nominal Dollars (12-1) can close and may get overlooked, while his Navarro stablemate #8 Whyruawesome (5-1) will get first run and looked good beating lesser in fast time in his last.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Santa Anita R4 (5:00 ET) – 4up Ca-bred MSW at 1-mile (turf)
A tough 8-pack, as no one stands out, but another race that figures to have a contested pace, which has me looking for a mild upset on the rail with #1 BOUNCING AROUND (8-1), who is lightly raced and has run just once on turf—a close 5th two-back—and will now run on the grass with blinkers for the first time. A stalking gear will make #2 COOL YOUR JETS (5-2) a handful, as he can sit off the speed and get first run, though he’s 0-for-8 with five slices, so he’s no lock. The price play is #5 SINGLE ME OUT (12-1), since he’s run just twice, improved a lot last time, and makes the pivotal third start of his career.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2,5
It’s probably obvious I have no real opinion in this race, so I’ll also use #6 PALERMO STYLE (4-1), #4 OSTINI (3-1), and #7 RECKLESS GRAVITY (6-1), who all have their merits, as well as races that put them in the mix here.
Pk5 B horses: 6,4,7
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R101 (5:12 ET) – 3yof 60k Starter Stakes at 1-mile (turf)
A huge jock upgrade to Saez and a trouble-free trip could help #5 DAH PHILLY (8-1) post the mild surprise after a rough trip here in her last, when she was 4th to a few of these at huge odds in her return to the turf. A good trip looks in the cards for #7 ISADORABLE AIDA (3-1), who was well clear of the pick when 3rd last time and figures to be just off the speed while trying to make amends for coming up short as the favorite last time, and drawing a bit better today will help.
Pk5 A horses: 5,7
The draw is ideal for #6 YAKO (7-2), who should be able to spy the speed and get first run, and she did beat the top pair last time, but the worry is that she’ll still get a bit fried late, so she’s only making the ticket as a backup, especially since she got blitzed by ‘Aida two-back. Initially I tried to make a case for #2 Sister Peacock (9-2) as the speed of the speed on the stretch to two turns in her turf debut, but I can’t pull the trigger with some heat to her outside, even though there’s no doubt she’ll make the front.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R5 (5:45 ET) – 3yo MSW at 1-mile
If #2 NO NAME FRED (9-5) runs back to his last he wins this, but it was on turf, and his Tapeta 4th two-back was no great shakes, so I’m not willing to sit alone with him, even though he’s clearly the one to beat. I’m also going to use #3 SARNI (7-2), who chased a hot pace sprinting on debut and was a close 2nd, and may now rate a Lone F on the stretchout, which he’s bred to love.
Pk5 A horses: 2,3
The rest seem to be stuck in place, with little to no upside, so we’ll limit the ticket to A-level runners only, though those spreading deeper can look to #4 Jimmy G (10-1) and #7 Classy Chasie (5-1).
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 7,9 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5,7 with 2,3 = $24
Leg 1 B Backup: 11,12 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 5,7 with 2,3 = $24
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,9 with 5 with 6,4,7 with 5,7 with 2,3 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,9 with 5 with 1,2,5 with 6 with 2,3 = $12