by Brian Nadeau
January 31, 2019
We’re back to battle this week with another go at the Stronach 5. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (4:35 ET) – 4up 10k MCL at 6 furlongs
I’m not trying to get too cute in the opening leg, as the logical seem a slight cut above. I’ll try for the mike surprise with #2 HUNTIN’THEHOLIDAYS on the drop and hopefully a return to a fast main track, as that 3rd here at the level two-back came in a very fast heat. If he delivers his best then #5 YOUNG AMERICAN will be tough, and he’s another who may like a fast main track a bit better.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 2,5
If there’s a price player it may be #3 PROMOTE, who goes off the claim for Maldonado (19%), has won two straight, and could get set up in a race with some speed.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R10 (4:41 ET) – 4up 60k Starter Stakes at 7 furlongs
In a race that looks like a match race (at best), I’ll go with expected pace presser #3 FERGIELICIOIS, who drew well to be outside #2 THERE GOES BELLA, drops in class, and gets Irad. The latter is the horse to beat, but improving off the claim from Walder might be tough for Abarrio, though there’s little doubt she’ll take some catching.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2
No one else comes remotely close to the top-2, so we’ll go in alone.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Santa Anita R4 (5:00 ET) – 4up Ca-bred MSW at 1-mile (turf)
The drop from Cal-bred MSW does is a big one, but yikes there’s a ton of speed here, so just maybe this falls apart late, which is why I’m trying to blow it up with #3 DESERT MOVIE, who needs to step up off this first two but fits the race profile. The other stretch runner is #2 CAPTAIN BUZZKILL, who will Be way back but ran well on the dirt last time and may build off that. The horse to beat is #8 COIL TO STRIKE, and he’s got upside off just two starts and drew outside the other speed too, so he’s a must-use. Lastly, if #6 SOUL OWNER can settle better than he did last time he may be able to run back to the sharp 2nd he was two-back against better.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2,8,6
Down below we have #9 AWESOME AMANDA, who has upside and was just 2nd to a repeat winner, though this wide draw hurts, and #7 SEA’S JOURNEY, who should improve off the return from an 11-month break, as well as the drop, but adds blinkers and seems destined to get fried.
Pk5 B horses: 9,7
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R101 (5:12 ET) – 3yof 60k Starter Stakes at 1-mile (turf)
In what looks like a spread race, I’ll go for a little surprise on #8 SLOT RECEIVER, who was up late to win in his first start for Duarte, who can do no wrong at the meet, and while facing winners is never easy, there’s plenty of upside here and he should get some pace to rally into as well. The more logicals are #5 FOUR KNIGHTS and #7 RESILIENCY, who both drop, though neither really seem all that trustworthy and will be overbet too.
Pk5 A horses: 8,5,7
We’ll have a few backups in #2 AFFLUENTIAL and #4 NAUTICAL BUOY, as the former drew well and was a close 3rd at the level last time, while the latter goes off the claim for Dobles, who has been known to move them up, and there’s some back form to work with too, which helps negate the bad run from a terrible draw last time.
Pk5 B horses: 2,4
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R5 (5:45 ET) – 3yo MSW at 1-mile
I’m going to try for a very aggressive single to end it in #1 FOXY LOVER, who steps ways up but did close with a rush to win going shorter last time, gets a great pace setup here, and takes a confident rise by Hollendorfer, who rarely runs them where they don’t belong.
Pk5 A horses: 1
That great pace setup should come from #2 One Eyed Mama and #4 Raiderette, as the former wired the latter last time, but I’m just hoping for some major regression today for ‘Mama off several strong runs. Also, with speedster #5 Handful of Pearls drawn to their outside, it just looks supersonic early.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 2,5 with 3,2 with 3,2,8,6 with 8,5,7 with 1 = $48
Leg 1 B Backup: 3 with 3,2 with 3,2,8,6 with 8,5,7 with 1 = $24
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,5 with 3,2 with 9,7 with 8,5,7 with 1 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,5 with 3,2 with 3,2,8,6 with 2,4 with 1 = $32