by Brian Nadeau
March 7, 2019
A little moving and shaking this week, with a revised Stronach 5 that will double up on Gulfstream Park and Golden Gate Fields, while still be guaranteed at 100k. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (5:00 ET) – 3up 5k N3L at 1-mile
We upset the opener last week at Laurel at 9-1 and while the price won’t be that high on #1 SOUTHEAST (9-2), he looks in a good spot to surprise in his local bow for Potts after facing tons better in NY of late for Contessa. The horse to beat on figures is #3 BEST SURPRISE (5-2), but with a penchant for rounding out the tri and super, he’s a little tough to trust and the type you don’t want to stand alone with. I don’t know where #6 IN HIM WITH HIM’S (3-1) much-improved 2nd came from last time, but his speed, and good attack post, make him a big player if he doesn’t bounce.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 1,3,6
There are a few that interest in the B slot, but I’ll use just #8 THROW THE DEUCE (5-1), since he was a bad actor at the gate last time and didn’t fire, but has some solid races to fall back on if he feels like running today. You could do worse than throw in in #9 Chocomount (8-1), as he looked good winning last time, but this is a solid rise in class, and that figures to be his undoing.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:17 ET) – 3yo 20k MCL at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
Stop reading and go straight to the window if you see 9-2 on #6 FINE SPIRIT, who drops out of a pair of Florida-bred MSW’s, goes from Leparoux to Irad, adds blinkers, and drew a ton better than he did last time, and looks poised to breakthrough at about 5-2. The chalk is #5 GO POKE THE BEAR (9-5), who has run well in the two times he’s been in for a tag, but you get the impression there’s not much upside left.
Pk5 A horses: 6,5
I’ve got no knocks on #4 JUST KITTEN YOU (2-1), other than he’s 2-1 while facing two who are tons better than those he just ran against, and is another who doesn’t have a ton of upside after four starts.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R11 (5:47 ET) – 4up 16k N3L at 1-mile (turf)
A perfect post, two solid races at the level, and a weak field all point to #1 AFFLUENTIAL (5-2) as the most like winner of the sequence, so we’ll play it that way, especially since his main rivals drew terribly.
Pk5 A horses: 1
I won’t be using either #11 Slot Receiver (9-2) or #12 Marshall Eddy (12-1), but if you’re spreading deeper than me then they have the form to get a look, though these posts are as bad as bad can be.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R5 (6:00 ET) – 4upfm N1X* at 1 1/16 miles
In what looks like a deep spread race, and the most wide open of the sequence, I’ll use five in the hopes of surviving, as #1 RENNY’S LADY (9-2), who drew well and makes the third start of her US career, #2 TIG TOG (9-2) has shown middling form against better on the turf at SA, #4 GOLDEN IRIS (10-1) adds blinkers and Lasix for her US debut and has some very good synthetic form in Europe, #8 THE SPIRAL JETTER (5-1), who bombed last time but had trouble, and has the best form of these, if she can find it again, and #6 WISH YOU WERE MINE (7-2) is another with solid form and usually runs her race.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2,4,8,6
I guess I’d be mighty hard-headed if I totally tossed #5 SHARI (10-1), as she beat ‘Mine last time, but note she was 69-1 that day, so you have to think she regresses in a big way here.
Pk5 B horses: 5
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R6 (6:28 ET) – 3yo AOC 40k/N1X* at 1 1/16 miles
I’ve got to believe the winner of the finale comes from either #2 THE CREEP (2-1) and #1 OUR SILVER OAK (9-5), and I’ll go with the former, who makes his first start for Wong (25%) and drops out of several open stakes, including the local El Camino Real Derby, while the latter was facing Cal-bred stakes at SA and is unproven locally.
Pk5 A horses: 2,1
No one else stacks up with the top-2, so if we’re fortunate enough to be alive in the last leg, we’ll be comforted to know we have the two decisive favorites.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 1,3,6 with 6,5 with 1 with 1,2,4,8,6 with 2,1 = $60
Leg 1 B Backup: 8 with 6,5 with 1 with 1,2,4,8,6 with 2,1 = $20
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,3,6 with 4 with 1 with 1,2,4,8,6 with 2,1 = $30
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,3,6 with 6,5 with 1 with 5 with 2,1 = $12