by Brian Nadeau
March 13, 2019
We’ve got the same Stronach 5 format that week, one that will double up on Gulfstream Park and Golden Gate Fields, while still be guaranteed at 100k. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (5:07 ET) – 3f 40k MCL at 6 furlongs
The opening leg is a toughie, in that there doesn’t really look like anyone you can tie your wagon to all that confidently. I’ll take four Maryland breds who don’t have to run for a tag, starting with MSW dropper #2 LUCKY NINEY NICE (10-1), since she took a bit of money debut but broke last, and it’s a great sign to see Trombetta reach for McCarthy too. I think you need to spread though, so I’ll also use #3 BUNTING (5-2), who has speed and has run well in both starts, #7 REIGNING FIRE (6-1), another MSW dropper who will like the company, and #4 GOLD CADILLAC (6-1), the “other” Trombetta who closed nicely on debut and isn’t entered for the tag either.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 2,3,7,4
I’m hardly confident with the above runners, so I’ll have backups too, with #5 GRACEYGAB (15-1), who goes off the claim for Gonzalez (25%), #10 UMIGHTBEANEMPRESS (6-1), who has several solid races showing, and #8 ZIRCON ZLOTY (15-1), and MSW dropper who was 7-1 on debut but was too bad to be true and should only improve off that dreadful debut.
Pk5 B horses: 5,10,8
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:38 ET) – 4up 16k at 5 furlongs (turf)
In what looks like a two-horse race, at least for top honors, I’ll go with the speed of #5 SLEEPING GIANT (7-2), who has just missed in two starts at the level and will get first run on #9 DANCE PROUDLY (9-5), who won at the level last time and shows two big figures of late, but is at the mercy of the pace and could come up just a bit short.
Pk5 A horses: 5,9
It looks like #7 G Q COVERUP (12-1) might need a pace meltdown too, though he got it last time and won against lesser, impressively and in fast time, so he could be a player on the rise, albeit at about half of this ML. Lastly, I’ll also use #6 MOONWALKER (15-1), who drops in class second-off the Vaccarezza claim and has some past races that make him a player here for a solid barn long overdue for some luck.
Pk5 B horses: 7,6
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R5 (6:00 ET) – 3f MSW at 1 1/16 miles
We find our stand-alone single with #11 LADYMIDTOWN (3-1), who heads up the coast from Santa Anita and just looks better than a weak bunch off her turf races down south, which includes a close 5th-place finish in the Surfer Girl in October.
Pk5 A horses: 11
There are others here you can use, most notably #1 In Her Fashion (6-1), #8 Queen Del Prado (4-1), and #6 Equal Measure (7-2), but this looks like a decided class drop for ‘Lady, and she just looks too tough for the locals.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R10 (6:08 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 6 furlongs
These cheap maiden-claimers are always tough, and you leave yourself vulnerable without spreading too deep, but it does look like #5 STARSHIP TAXI (3-1) will take some beating after running 2nd by a nose at the level, and the fact he’s just 0-for-6 says he’s not yet allergic to the winner’s circle. And that’s more than we can say for #2 ROCKY STRANGE (7-2) and #6 ACCOUNANT Q (8-1), who are 0-for-14 and 0-for-11, respectively, but (sadly) have run well enough to be a player here.
Pk5 A horses: 5,2,6
The only other one I want, without getting too crazy, is #14 DR DUDLEY (6-1), since he has a few decent runs showing and should be able to pass some in the lane, while being tactical enough to negate this wide draw too.
Pk5 B horses: 14
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R6 (6:30 ET) – 3yo 50k starter-allowance at 6 furlongs
The finale is predictably deep and competitive, with some speed too, so I’ll tab #6 ORACLE OF OMAHA (4-1) on top, since he has been facing better at Santa Anita and ran relatively well over the turf in the past, which suggests he may handle the local Tapeta. The best of the locals is #9 EIGHTY PROOF (3-1), who was 2nd, beaten just a neck, at the level last time, and won’t have to improve much to get there today.
Pk5 A horses: 6,9
Facing winners is never easy but #5 MR. DIPLOMAT (5-2) looked good running off late in his second start and seems to have a future, so this shouldn’t be a rise that’s too much to handle. The wide draw won’t help #10 DADDY JONES (9-2), but he’s another SA invader who has been facing better, and his closing style won’t be too negated by this impost. If he can work out a trip then #2 THISONEFORJAMES (10-1) isn’t impossible, as he’s got some decent local form at the level and will get first run too.
Pk5 B horses: 5,10,2
Main Ticket: 2,3,7,4 with 5,9 with 11 with 5,2,6 with 6,9 = $48
Leg 1 B Backup: 5,10,8 with 5,9 with 11 with 5,2,6 with 6,9 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 2,3,7,4 with 7,6 with 11 with 5,2,6 with 6,9 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,3,7,4 with 5,9 with 11 with 14 with 6,9 = $16
Leg 5 B Backup: 2,3,7,4 with 5,9 with 11 with 5,2,6 with 5,10,2 = $72