by Brian Nadeau
April 10, 2019
We’re back to battle with another Stronach 5, with the guarantee once again at 100k, in what looks like a relatively formful sequence that won’t be too taxing on the bankroll. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (5:16 ET) – 3upfm 14k MCL at 6 furlongs
It seems like the Laurel Stronach 5 races have been pretty formful, for the most part, so I’ll play this one that way too, as #8 TRUE TO JEANINE (7-2) will love this drop off a distant 10th on debut in a FG MSW for Brueggemann, especially since she’s now with Ness, while #1 AMERICAN STAR (5-2) is best on figures, though she’s is 0-for-9 and drew poorly. I’m also going to use MSW dropper #5 HAYLEY AGNES (6-1), since she’ll be a decent price, and that 3rd for a tag two-back puts her in the mix here.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 8,1,5
You can tab the tote on the two firsters—#2 Gemini Lil (6-1) and #3 Regal Duet (8-1)—but neither inspire and the former goes for a winless trainer while the latter is trained by Keefe, who is 0-for-24 with firsters. I’m also against #7 Variance (4-1), since her only good run in three starts off the Magill claim came in the slop, and her two fast track runs were very poor.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:34 ET) – 3up AOC (62.5k/N2X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
The obvious single is #4 PURE SENSATION (8-5), who is one of the better turf sprinters in the country on his best day, but dig a little and you’ll see he lost this race in his comeback last year, and he’s now 8, so he could need a start or two before getting his legs back underneath him. I’ll go with the next logical, the speedy #10 MCERIN (5-2), for aired here last time for wonder trainer Jason Servis, and this outside attack post is a big coup in a race loaded with speed.
Pk5 A horses: 10,4
I don’t love going three-deep here, but there’s a ton of pace and #1 SINGANDCRYINDUBAI (15-1) will be a price and was a relatively close 4th to Imprimis in a small local stakes last time, and that dude is the best turf sprinter in the US, so with a positive race flow, let’s use this veteran as well.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R5 (5:56 ET) – 3yof 12.5k MCL at 6 furlongs
No real opinion here, other than the race looks like a spread, so I’ll use the main contenders—#4 UNUSUAL DANCER (9-2), #6 DONVERAS CAT (6-1), #2 TIZ A DREAMER (5-1), and #8 CHAMBOOZEL (4-1)—while noting that the former seems to have a huge race flow edge on the other trio, as he has plenty of tactical speed, while ‘Cat is an MSW dropper, so those two could potentially be leaned on if you’re looking to narrow down.
Pk5 A horses: 4,6,2,8
The quartet above don’t really overwhelm or tower over the others, so let’s add in #5 HONG KONG FLEW (3-1) and #7 TOOLEY TUNES (8-1), as the former has a ton of speed and the latter could like the cutback to one-turn.
Pk5 B horses: 5,7
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R10 (6:04 ET) – 3yof 2ok MCL at 7 furlongs (turf)
Being a firster here isn’t a bad thing, especially when drawn inside, so let’s put #5 JUDGE KITTEN (4-1) on top for Maker and the Ramseys, as she’s a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, the proven runners aren’t much, and the other two favorites drew terribly. You do get upside with #10 UPCAPTURED ANGEL (3-1), who is best of the proven runners, but this post is terrible and it’s not like she ran huge when 5th against a bit better last time.
Pk5 A horses: 5,10
I’m going to use #11 CHARGE IT JENN (7-2), as this is a big drop and she has some decent form, but this post is dreadful and she goes for an ice cold Vaccarezza barn, so there’s no way I want her as an A, and she’s the type to toss if you’re look to condense your ticket. you could use others here, like #3 Tennessee Cotton (20-1) and #7 Princess Gaby (6-1), but they likely need to improve and need the top trio to regress, which seems like a big ask.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Leg 5: Santa Anita R5 (6:13 ET) – 3f MSW at 6 furlongs
The finale is littered with firsters from barns that don’t really excel with these types, so it looks like it’s now or never with #4 HONEYFROMTHESOUTH (9-5), who has lost but hit the board three times as an odds-on favorite for Baffert, but has no upside, though any of those three might get it done here. I do want someone else, just in case the trend on the 4 continues, and the dart has landed on #5 INTO CHOCOLATE (8-1), who did well to draw outside the favorite, has worked big for Sise (2-for-9 with firsters), and is by win-early sire Into Mischief.
Pk5 A horses: 4,5
There are several of the firsters who can be used here, but, as I mentioned, none stand out and don’t really have any angles on their side. If you are looking for some added coverage, the pair of McCarthy gals—#8 Royally Bland (8-1) and #6 Ce Ce (5-1)—both have shown flashes in the morning and start for one of the sharper (and underrated) trainers around. while #9 Mind For Mischief (4-1), woke way up in the slop last time and now adds Lasix, but does need to prove it on dry land.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 8,1,5 with 10,4 with 4,6,2,8 with 5,10 with 4,5 = $96
Leg 2 B Backup: 8,1,5 with 1 with 4,6,2,8 with 5,10 with 4,5 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 8,1,5 with 10,4 with 5,7 with 5,10 with 4,5 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 8,1,5 with 10,4 with 4,6,2,8 with 11 with 4,5 = $48