by Brian Nadeau
May 9, 2019
We’ll take a break between Triple Crown races and get back to the Stronach 5 this week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:30 ET) – 3upfm 35k at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
The opening leg has little to no early speed, which makes #1 MESA MADEIRA (5-1) dangerous with her tactical speed from a ground-saving draw, and winning two straight and now meeting a group like this isn’t a bad thing either. The drop in class might negate a lack of early speed for #2 SAND DRIFT (4-1), who has been facing better and is clearly the one to fear in the lane.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 1,2
The wide draw won’t help #11 EARLY TIME (7-2), though she’s another who has been facing better and, while improving off Motion won’t be easy, Joseph could pull it off. You won’t see that 20-1 ML on #7 BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD (10-1), but half that seems fair on a gal with the figures to play here, and who could improve on the drop as well.
Pk5 B horses: 11,7
Leg 2: Pimlico R9 (5:40 ET) – 3up N1X Md-bred/sired at 6 furlongs
This is a deep field, and one in which the betting public might want to spread deep, but I do think the two favorites are a cut above, and I also think they’ll be lower than their ML’s come post-time, so I’m going to use both and call it a day. We start with #9 THATWOULDBEGRAND (7-2), who has run against open foes in 8-of-9 lifetime starts, with the lone state-bred run coming in a 4th-place finish behind Preakness-bound Alwaysmining in the Md. Juvenile Futurity at Laurel in December. There’s no one remotely like that star in here, and there’s plenty of pace as well, so he’s going to relish the drop from just off the pace. The other favorite, #2 TORCH OF TRUTH, has been snake-bit in last three, as he’s run 2nd, but he’s also a cut above the rest on paper and will get first run on ‘Grand, which may be enough to get him over the hump.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2
There will be no backups, since I’d like to maximize my opinions on the two (what I think will be) heavy favorites, and if I spread any deeper their leverage goes out the window. However, if you are looking for some added backups, then #10 Royal Hussar (10-1) looks ready off the long break, while #1 Odds On (15-1) could be the speed of the speed and try to run this field off its feet.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R5 (6:00 ET) –3upfm N1X* at 1-mile (turf)
Run to the hills if #10 PARTY DANCER is anywhere near her 8-1 ML, as it would be a terrible sign, since she looks more like 3-1 on paper off her SA return and drop in class now that she’s up north. There’s turf form to fall back on for both #7 THE SPIRAL JETTER (7-2) and #5 HAL’S BUDDY (4-1), and a return to the green stuff could bring out their best, which would put them right on the line here.
Pk5 A horses: 10,7,5
The speed of #2 MISS SUPER SAINT (8-1) could come in handy here, and while she’s never been on the grass, she’s bred for it and could get brave if they let her alone early.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R10 (6:07 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k MCL at 7 1/2 (furlongs)
Being a first-time starter here can’t be a bad thing, as this is a field littered with lifetime maidens, so it’s no surprise top billing goes to #8 PRICKLY KITTEN (5-1), a Ramsey homebred who debuts with a slew of works for Maker, and she won’t have to be a star to have a big impact here. lifetime maidens are impossible to trust but #9 KINDHEARTED KOTA (7-2) does have the best form, and she might have finally found a group she can handle.
Pk5 A horses: 8,9
Fellow lifetime maiden #7 RECONSIDER IT (4-1) is twice as bad as ‘Kota, since she’s 0-for-24, though she too has enough form to win this, so let’s use her, though only in a backup role.
Pk5 B horses: 7
Leg 5: Santa Anita R6 (6:50 ET) – 3upfm Cal-bred AOC (20k/N1X) at 1-mile (turf)
I’m a sucker for a potential Lone F, and it looks like #1 SMOOVIE (4-1) might be one, as she drew perfectly and has the best gate speed here, and the GII drop won’t hurt either, so here’s hoping she gets brave. If she gives it up late then #8 LOSTINTRANZLATION (5-2) will be there to take over, and she won’t have to improve an inch off that nose 2nd to open foes last time to beat there. Let’s also go with the upside of #6 SEDAMAR (5-1), since she’s run just four time and really work up off the layoff last time, and a move forward here makes her a serious player.
Pk5 A horses: 1,8,6
We’ll stand alone with the A’s here, as they not only seem better than the rest, but they also seem to won a race flow edge and should trip out best too. If you are looking outside the box, then #2 Drop the Mic (8-1) and #9 Marjorie E (9-2) seem best of the rest.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 1,2 with 9,2 with 10,7,5 with 8,9 with 1,8,6 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 11,7 with 9,2 with 10,7,5 with 8,9 with 1,8,6 = $72
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,2 with 9,2 with 2 with 8,9 with 1,8,6 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,2 with 9,2 with 10,7,5 with 7 with 1,8,6 = $36