by Jerry Shottenkirk
May 17, 2019
The $2 million Pick 4 at Pimlico on Preakness Day is about what you’d expect in degree of difficulty.
In a word: High.
And it’s not only because of the suggested unpredictability of the Preakness, which is the 13th race and last of the sequence. Also included are the Gallorette, Chick Lang and Dixie Stakes. The Gallorette and Preakness probably require the most entrants on the Pick 4 card, while the Chick Lang seems to require the least. The Dixie is far from a gimme as well.
There’s a half-dozen on the ticket for the Preakness, including:
War of Will: It was remarkable he lost the Derby by 4.5 lengths. Will has already been through a War, so what’s a little thing like drawing the No. 1 post going to affect him? There is no doubt he can improve his standing in this one.
Bourbon War: Not good enough to unload the wallet upon, but certainly qualified for inclusion in this free-for-all. The 4th in the Florida Derby was actually a decent run and while he has only a maiden win and a optional claiming triumph to his credit, he probably will benefit from having skipped the Derby.
Improbable: Hasn’t run a bad one yet, and while he had nothing go in his favor in the Derby, his fifth-place finish was actually admirable. He hasn’t had much go his way this year and is due. He has the talent; he needs some luck.
Alwaysmining: Seeks his seventh straight win and is as good a local hope as there’s been in a while. While he’s never seen a spot this difficult, it would be foolish not to take him seriously. Very dangerous front-runner.
Anothertwistafate: Has tactical speed and shouldn’t have a big problem with the No. 12 post. His only failure came in a sprint in his debut, and everything else on his form has been sharp. Should be able to make the distance in good shape.
Win Win Win: Was runner-up to Alwaysmining going seven furlongs at Laurel but has become a classy model as he’s added distance. Was lost in the sloppy shuffle of the Derby. Throw out that effort; he’ll be coming on late. Adds blinkers, which could help him stay within range.
Here’s my suggested ticket for the $2 Million Guaranteed Pick 4 at Pimlico:
Race 10) #1 I’m So Fancy, #2 Inflexibility, #8 Viva Vegas, #9 Barkaa.
Race 11) #7 Pyron, #8 Preamble.
Race 12) #6 Flameaway, #11 Inspector Lindley, #12 Catholic Boy.
Race 13) #1 War of Will, #2 Bourbon War, #4 Improbable, #7 Alwaysmining, #12 Anothertwistafate, #13 Win Win Win.
Total Ticket Cost) 1,2,8,9/7,8/6,11,12/1,2,4,7,12,13 = $72 for $0.50