by Brian Nadeau
May 22, 2019
We’ll take a break between Triple Crown races and get back to the Stronach 5 this week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park R8 (5:00 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L* 6 furlongs
We’ve got a compact field of eight here, but most, if not all, have a winning chance, so this could knock out a lot of tickets if a mid-priced contenders wins. There’s not a lot of speed signed on, which should flatter the chances of #5 MR. KISSES (5-2), who doesn’t need the lead, but should be on or just off of the pace that #6 Forman the Foreman (4-1) is going to set, and while the barn change and November layoff is a worry, Baxter is a sharp 20% with newcomers to her barn, and a big 29% overall on the year. The pace needs to be hot for #7 I IDOLIZE YOU (3-1) and #8 DOC KANE (6-1) to get there, but with ‘Forman going off the Navarro claim, it might be, which means either of these, who themselves go off the claim for Joseph (32%) and Delgado (46%), respectively, have a big chance.
Pk5 A horses: 5,7,8
Others here have some solid form, but I’m not going any deeper because their’s is also proven form, and even that hasn’t been good enough, and with the top-3 either being better already, and/or likely to improve, it’s tough to think anyone like #2 Resident (12-1) or #4 Dunk (6-1) can bridge the gap.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Pimlico R9 (5:25 ET) – 3upfm 16k a 5 furlongs (turf)
This one really comes down to what you want to do with #4 YOU MADE IT (5-2), who was 3rd to much better last time and has run faster in her two turf starts than the rest of her rivals, and still has some upside off just seven starts—and only two on turf. Yes, she’s never been on the Pimlico sod, but she just looks too good for these, and singling her will allow for a lot more leverage in the other more difficult legs.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 4
The other reason I like singling You Made It is that you could use several others against her and there’s still no guarantee you’ll have the winner, since the rest of them are the definition of a mixed bag. The two most intriguing have never tried turf, so what you get from #2 Neverenoughkandi (8-1) and #5 Cool Alley (7-2) is a guess, but they do appear to have talent and upside, so if you are looking for more coverage, I’d start there. The obvious would be #7 Weekend Flyer (6-1), who wasn’t far behind the favorite two-back, but regressed mightily when she was drubbed by her last time and seems tough to trust.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:30 ET) –3upfm 12.5k MCL at 7 furlongs (turf)
A second turn is a wildcard but there’s little doubt #4 SHANGHAISWEETHEART (5-1) hits hard off the Avila claim after a solid turf debut 3rd that was eons better than her two dirt starts. You also have to use #5 JUDGE KITTEN (4-1) for a hot Quiroz barn, as she fits nicely on figures, even though improving off Maker is not an easy task. The post is brutal for #11 MAKE NO MISTAKE (15-1), but she does have a lot of speed, and she too really improved in her turf bow, so she’s on the short list.
Pk5 A horses: 4,5,11
I’m not sold on firsters #7 QUEEN SOLDAT (12-1) and #8 RAPID TRANSIT (6-1), for Abreu and Maker, respectively, since they are obviously second tier, as they would be in NY and Kentucky if they could run, so I’m not expecting much, though they also don’t have to be much to play with a group like this. I’m not using lifetime maidens #6 Kindhearted Kota (8-1) and #10 Better Vibes (30-1), even though they fit on figures, as they just don’t seem like legitimate winning threats, at least on an A/B type of ticket.
Pk5 B horses: 7,8
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields Park R5 (5:55 ET) – 3upfm 4k N2L at 6 furlongs
A stiff drop in class from the starter 50k ranks sure woke up #1 BABY’S GOT CLASS (3-1), a s she was 2nd behind a romping winner at the level last time, and she needs only to negotiate a trip from this tricky draw to have a big say here, and in a race without a ton of speed, she may simply get sent to the front and try to wire them. A return to the Tapeta, a cutback to one-turn, and a drop in class could all mean that #5 DUZLE WORPZ (2-1) will be too tough for this modest crew, and she drew perfectly as well, so it’s tough to fault anyone if you need a single and don’t trust the rail.
Pk5 A horses: 1,5
The 1-for-19 lifetime mark means I can’t possibly put #3 GEE STREET (5-2) on the top line, even though she fits nicely with these on paper and was just a close 2nd at the level on drop, but these types are easy ways to lose money at the track, so let’s limit her to a supporting role.
Pk5 B horses: 3
Leg 5: Santa Anita R6 (6:41 ET) – 3upfm AOC (40k/N1X) at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
The finale is a toughie, as most of these look the same on paper, which means trip and racing luck will be paramount to success, and with a relatively tight ticket leading up to this, I’m spreading in the hopes of catching a price (and bettering my chances). Oddly enough, for a field of seven, there appears to be plenty of pace, so I’ll side with the stalker/closers, a list that starts with #3 CONFIDENTIALLY (4-1), who seemed a bit one-paced facing winners last time, but has some upside and can improve off that run. Her turf form is a question, but #5 PRIDE’S GOLD (5-1) won on the synthetic at Chelmsford carrying 136 pounds in March and doesn’t meet any world beaters for her US bow, and you have to think she’s going to settle a bit early, so the gut says she’s live for Harty. There’s some hit-or-miss form with #4 CATOCA (3-1), so I wouldn’t want a short price in the win pool, but she too fits the race flow profile and makes the third start of her form cycle too.
Pk5 A horses: 3,5,4
The good race-bad race pattern says #2 MONGOLIAN WINDOW (7-2) is firing today, and her best wins this, but there’s speed to her outside and she’s just too tough to trust to put on the A-line, though she’s also too good on her day to leave out. It looks like #6 ZUZANNA (5-1) has a hint of a rating gear, and she drew a nice outside attack post too, so I’ll use her as well, though this is a solid step up in class off that win for 25k last time. I’m playing against #8 Charmingslew (8-1) from a wide draw after she wired Cal breds last time, especially since both her wins have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and it’s unlikely she’s getting the lead from out here.
Pk5 B horses: 2,6
Main Ticket: 5,7,8 with 4 with 4,5,11 with 1,5 with 3,5,4 = $54
Leg 3 B Backup: 5,7,8 with 4 with 7,8 with 1,5 with 3,5,4 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 5,7,8 with 4 with 4,5,11 with 3 with 3,5,4 = $27
Leg 5 B Backup: 5,7,8 with 4 with 4,5,11 with 1,5 with 2,6 = $36