by Brian Nadeau
May 30, 2019
We’ll take a break between Triple Crown races and get back to the Stronach 5 this week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, likely on Twitter only, as I'm be on a UK vacation this week with minimal computer access. ***
Leg 1: Santa Anita R3 (5:08 ET) – 2yo Cal-breds at 4 1/2 furlongs
The good news is you can tab the toteboard here to see who’s live and taking money, in the hopes of getting a better feel on what looks like a scramble. I’m going to go with #3 FAST ENOUGH and #5 INCLUDE THE TAX, since the former goes for a Becerra barn that is 2-for-4 with firsters and has worked well for this, and the latter starts for McCarthy, who reaches for Prat, which is a great sign in a race where most of the other big name jockeys aren’t riding.
Pk5 A horses: 3,5
The rest seem like a mixed bag, so again, give the tote a look to see what you can unearth, while on paper #2 NEXT FLIGHT looks well-meant, and would seem a contender for Miyadi, who is a solid enough 11% with firsters.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Leg 2: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) – 3upfm SAOC 25k at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
While not necessarily a match race there’s little doubt that #6 LUNAR RILLE and #5 FLYINGONTHEGROUND lay over this field, so I’ll use them both on the A-line, since their form is simply better than a mixed bag, and neither would have to improve off their recent (turf) runs to beat this field.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 6,5
If there’s an upsetter in the group I’ll go with #12 WORDS OF A FEATHER, since her turf runs have been OK, she’s not too far behind the top pair on figures, and lures McCarthy, which is never a bad thing in these parts.
Pk5 B horses: 12
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R7 (5:28 ET) –3upfm 35k N2L at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
A stiff drop in class out of the stakes ranks might be all #3 VIOLENT TRICK needs, since she was thrown to the wolves last time but was a sharp MCL winner two-back for Lynch and now makes her second start off the Avila (28%) claim, and could be poised to breakthrough now that she’s back with friends. The main danger looks like #2 ISADORABLE AIDA, who was going good this winter then stubbed her toe when last seen, but the brief respite should help, and any of her priors runs put her right on the line here.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2
While the top-2 are tough, they are far from locks, so I’ll also use #4 NILESTAR, who makes her first start on turf for Nicks and could be a major place player, and #6 NIGHT WATCH, a stretch runner that has been rallying late and isn’t far behind on paper, especially if she can reproduce that close 2nd at the level last time.
Pk5 B horses: 4,6
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields Park R5 (5:55 ET) – 3upfm 4k N2L at 6 furlongs
I have no strong opinion here so I’m simply going to blanket who I like and hope to get through, and the list starts with #6 BADGER, as he’s been facing better here on the Tapeta, #2 CARRIBEAN COLOURS, off the drop against better at SA, #8 LU CAT, since he could be the controlling speed or will sit a perfect outside pressing trip, and #7 STYLE DADDY, who has had his chances and keeps burning money, but could have found a group that he’ll finally be able to handle.
Pk5 A horses: 6,2,8,7
I’d like to think the winner is up above, and if he’s not, then I have no clue who could surprise, so I’ll leave it at the A-line only and move on.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:33 ET) – 3upfm AOC (40k/N1X) at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
A perfect post and plenty of upside make #2 SHE FLED THE SCENE a huge player, and she may be poised for a lifetime best in what is the third start of her career. Speed and second-time blinkers say #8 SUNNIVA could finally graduate in start number 11, and the price will be better than it was last time when she was 3rd against similar. A terrible draw makes #9 PRICKLY KITTEN a bit tough to trust, so while her debut 2nd was solid, it was also very slow, so she’s a little tough to stand alone on.
Pk5 A horses: 2,8,9
If #3 NOBLE MARIA breaks running she could get brave, as she won’t have to go as fast early as she did last time to clear, so I’ll use her defensively, much like I’ll do with #5 SMIRKOTCH, since she’s going to like the MSW drop and has shown a strong closing kick on the grass against eons better.
Pk5 B horses: 3,5
Main Ticket: 3,5 with 6,5 with 3,2 with 6,2,8,7 with 2,8,9 =$96
Leg 1 B Backup: 2 with 6,5 with 3,2 with 6,2,8,7 with 2,8,9 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 3,5 with 12 with 3,2 with 6,2,8,7 with 2,8,9 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 3,5 with 6,5 with 4,6 with 6,2,8,7 with 2,8,9 = $96
Leg 5 B Backup: 3,5 with 6,5 with 3,2 with 6,2,8,7 with 3,5 = $64