by Brian Nadeau
June 13, 2019
With the Triple Crown behind us, let’s refocus our attention to the extremely popular Stronach 5, which has routine seen pools well in excess of 150k. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (5:20 ET) – 3up St/AOC (25k/16k) at 1-mile (turf)
Tough sledding in the opener, though we may be able to split the field in two, as there are several here who are deep, deep closers, which means they’ll be at the mercy of the pace, which seems on the modest side. The outside posts aren’t ideal, but both #8 NATE’S TIZZY (7-2) and #7 DONE ACTING (8-1) have some tactical speed, which not only could help negate their poor posts, but also allow them to really get an advantage based on the race flow, and both have been in fine form of late. Let’s use the best of the closers, in #5 MINISTER’S STRIKE (4-1) on the class rise, and #3 ENOUGH IS ENOUGH (5-1), who was really in deep with his style down at GP.
Pk5 A horses: 8,7,5,3
Let’s lean on the A’s here, since anyone else would be a real reach, though #2 Barin (12-1) and #9 Sir Brahms (6-1) would top the list of the rest.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:28 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L* at 5 furlongs (turf)
In a race loaded with speed this one could fall apart late, which is why #9 EARTH (5-2) could be a potential single, especially since he’s been a good 2nd in his last pair at the level and meets a crew that just doesn’t match up to his recent form. However, going second-off the layoff and drawing outside the heat is a big coup for #6 FLIPSHOT (6-1), who has a hint of a rating gear, which will get him first run on the pick, at a nice price too.
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 9,6
*** Please note that to keep the price of the Leg 4 backup down, we’ll use #9 Earth as a single ***
There’s a good race-bad race pattern working with #8 FUZZY IRISH RACHEL (20-1), and that close 4th to Earth last time says we’re getting the bad race today, but he also had some trouble that day and would have been closer with a clean run, so with all the speed signed on, let’s toss him in at a big, big price. There’s a chance #1 Another Softball (4-1) is the speed of the speed, which would make him scary, but there’s so much of it to his outside, let’s make him prove it on the rise while going for three in a row.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Leg 3: Laurel Park R10 (5:51 ET) –3up 16k N3L* 1 1/16 miles (turf)
At the risk of being a bit too overconfident, I think we can narrow this one down relatively nicely, as #1 ELECTRO (5-2) and #6 UHWARRIE SKY (7-2) are clearly the two to beat, especially since they just ran 2-3 at the level and meet a very weak field right back. However, we can get a ton of value with #4 NICK PAPAGIORGIO (10-1), who had no chance behind a crawling pace on yielding ground against tons better in his turf debut, yet he tries again, which suggests Keefe, who does a very good job in these parts, thinks he’s going to handle the surface, should it be on the firm side.
Pk5 A horses: 1,6,4
This is another race where we’ll go it alone with the A’s, since I think we have the right two, as well as a live longshot, and there’s just no one else who you can trust. If you are looking, then #7 Kid Jeter (9-2) is next up on the totem pole, followed by #5 Affluential (6-1), but the former rises in class off slow figures and the latter has no speed and was just eased (albeit on the dirt), so we should be comfortable making them beat us.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Santa Anita R5 (6:12 ET) – 3upfm AOC (80k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
It’s tough to go against #7 YES I AM FREE (2-1), since he’s a turf stakes sprint winner and his grass races lay over this field, so he’s our Lone A, and the only reason he’s not a single is that he’s gone from Casse to Miyadi and is now dangled for 80k, which is very odd, based on his resume.
Pk5 A horses: 7
There’s plenty of pace here, and #2 TOOTHLESS WONDER (10-1), who is bred for the turf, should be stalking, so at a nice price he could surprise in his grass bow. The more logical upset candidate is #8 UNBRIDLED’S SKYE (5-2), who impressed running 2nd over the course/distance in his turf debut and fits the race profile, and can improve off that trial run too.
Pk5 B horses: 2,8
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:34 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k N2L at 6 furlongs
It’s pretty obvious we have a two-horse race here, with heavy favorites #11 ABACO DREAM (5-2) and #6 PRINCESS LATINA (9-5) laying over the field on class and figures. There’s really no reason to get cute, so let’s use them both and move on, with the former getting the edge based on her outside attack post and the fact she’s dropping stiffly in class and is proven against winners, which is still a question the former, a fleet MCL winner has to answer.
Pk5 A horses: 11,6
Anyone else would be not only a big reach, but a big surprise, so there’s no need to use any backups, though #1 Bird of Peace (6-1) looks third-best off two recent in-the-money runs.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 8,7,5,3 with 9,6 with 1,6,4 with 7 with 11,6 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 8,7,5,3 with 8 with 1,6,4 with 7 with 11,6 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 8,7,5,3 with 9 with 1,6,4 with 2,8 with 11,6 = $48