by Brian Nadeau
June 19, 2019
We’re back to battle with the Stronach 5, while hoping the weather cooperates after hitting all the turf races last week, only to see one of the other legs get washed off. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) – 3up 16k Starter Handicap at 1-mile (turf)
Don’t be surprised if, in this space next week, we’re talking about a big carryover, as this is a sequence that looks next to impossible, as it’s full of depth and evenly matched fields. And because of that, we’ll have to be aggressive in a few races, since the bankroll simply won’t be able to cover everyone I’d like (which is also a ringing endorsement for the A/B type of play). Speaking of being aggressive, I’ll waste little time doing so in the opener, as #1 FLOWMOTION looks like a standout in a field where everyone else looks the same, and any of those GP runs would win this, and do so relatively comfortably.
Pk5 A horses: 1
We could use any number of backups, and that makes the ticket expensive, so we’ll have to cut down later in the sequence with a few of the A-level contenders, since I do want some coverage here. It starts with the outside runners, #10 HIGH NOON RIDER and #11 SIR BRAHMS, since they have been in solid form of late, and if ‘Flow regresses for whatever reason, they’ll be there to take advantage. I don’t really know what to make of #5 DOTHAT DANCE, who upset ‘Rider last time for fun off the Schoenthal claim at 30-1 but was way behind him and ‘Sir two-back, but that win was so powerful, and he could again get a soft turf course, so I’ll use him, while admittedly not expecting much.
Pk5 B horses: 10,11,5
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:28 ET) – 3upfm 40k MCL at 1-mile (turf)
Things get more difficult here, so I’ll spread and go four-deep, with #2 RASBERRY BALLET, who figures to hit hard on the MSW drop; #6 SISTER GEMA, the best of the proven runners at the level; #9 ANUMATI, another MSW dropper, though this terrible draw won’t help; and also #3 UNCOMMON FACTOR, who really improved off the Kurtinecz claim last time, with a bunch of trouble to boot. (Also, if #13 SHE FLED THE SCENE draws in, she’s a must-use A, horrific draw and all.)
Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 2,6,9,3 (Please note that to keep the cost of the backup tickets down involving the 10,11,5 in Leg 1, I’m only using the 2 and 6 in this leg and the 1 in the final leg.)
There’s a lot going on with #11 LA INCONDICIONAL, since she drops from the MSW ranks, adds blinkers and Lasix, and that turf debut might win this, though this poor draw makes it impossible to put her on the A-line.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Leg 3: Laurel Park R10 (5:55 ET) –3upfm 16k MCL at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
When I’m taking an 0-for-10 runner on top you know the field is weak, and that’s the case here, as #3 KITTEN’S FRIEND, who has had her fair of chances, simply looks a lot better than a field where there are several who simply can’t win, and it’s also worth nothing she’s only 0-for-4 on turf, and that April 4th against better is going to win this. I’ll also use #7 BURAK, who seems like the only other with any hope, and the drop and cutback off a very troubled 7th last time should agree with her. (If #11 THAT’STHEWAYTODOIT draws in she goes to the top of the list, since her turf runs make her the filly to beat, wide post and all.)
Pk5 A horses: 3,7
It’s tough to really get interested in anyone else here, so I’m going to go it alone with the top pair and hope to get through. If you’re looking for more coverage then #4 Broadway Trouper, #6 Queens or Better, and #10 Bodhicitta all have a bit of form and aren’t impossible with some improvement.
Pk5 B horses:
Leg 4: Santa Anita R5 (6:12 ET) – 3up AOC (40k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)
I’ve been relatively condensed early, which was the plan since this is one of the more inscrutable legs, and I want as much coverage as possible. I think we can split the field a bit into those who want to be involved early and those who can settle and come from somewhat off the pace, and there’s enough of the former to think the speed comes back here and lands in the lap of the latter. I’ll go outside the box with my top pick, #1 VERY VERY STELLA, who hasn’t been on the turf in ages but immediately goes there off the O’Neill claim, and that’s a 35% angle, so the fact he’s on the grass is significant, especially since he can stalk and has some recent two-turn dirt foundation. Both #8 NORTH COUNTRY GUY and #9 ERI THE TROJAN also have stalking gears and proven recent turf form, so they make the top line too, as does #3 THE RULE OF KING’S, who should offer some value since he’s been running on dirt of late, but has a fast-figure turf stakes 7th last summer at Del Mar.
Pk5 A horses: 1,8,9,3
I’m going to use who I think is the best of the speed, and that’s #7 MORGAN S., as he’s drawn outside his two main pace rivals, and enters off a win, though dueling and lasting won’t be easy. Lastly, I’ll toss in #5 REGAL BORN, since he fits the race flow profile and had some solid turf form from last summer to fall back on.
Pk5 B horses: 7,5 (Please note that to keep the cost of the backup tickets down, I’m only using the 1 in the last leg.)
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:34 ET) – 3upfm 20k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
The rail is no bargin but #1 HANNAH’S STORM’S two turf races—against MSW foes—would beat this field handily, so she’s going to hit hard on the drop, and if you’re on a very slim budget, you could do worse than singling her in the finale. However, I’d like at least a bit more coverage, especially since #5 RUN TIZ RUN really outran her odds (67-1) on debut, when she chased early and held to finish a lose 6th, and off that tightener she should be able to improve and potentially surprise at overlaid odds. The one who could attract the most upset speculation is #6 PEACEFULLY, since she was bet down to 8-5 on debut but had a rough go of it on the rail and didn’t fire when 9th behind ‘Run, though now she goes off the Vitali claim (18%) and drew much better.
Pk5 A horses: 1,5,6 (Please note that for the backup tickets involving the 10,11,5 in Leg 1, I’m only using the 1 in this leg.)
I guess I have to use #9 NY BETH GETSITDONE, since she was a close 2nd last time, while ahead of ‘Run and Peacefully, but she’s also 0-for-10 with no upside and a wide draw, so let’s limit her use to underneath only. You can use others here, most notably #4 Little Bella and #8 Chaos Rising, but the former goes for an ice-cold Vaccarreza barn that is 0-for-25 with firsters, and the latter didn’t fire off the trainer switch, so neither seems worthy of making the cut.
Pk5 B horses: 9
Main Ticket: 1 with 2,6,9,3 with 3,7 with 1,8,9,3 with 1,5,6 = $64
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,11,5 with 2,6 with 3,7 with 1,8,9,3 with 1 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 1 with 11 with 3,7 with 1,8,9,3 with 1,5,6 = $24
Leg 4 B Backup: 1 with 2,6,9,3 with 3,7 with 7,5 with 1,5,6 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 1 with 2,6,9,3 with 3,7 with 1,8,9, with 1 = $24