by Brian Nadeau
June 26, 2019
Let’s once again tackle the Stronach 5, which will have a 100k guarantee, though the pool has been easily surpassing that number. With a doozy of a sequence that could pay big balloons, I’ll take real swing this week and remove the rubber band off the bankroll a bit. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (4:49 ET) – 3upfm 16k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
Nothing comes easy in the opening leg, though there does appear to be plenty of speed, so I’m looking for stalker/closers, with the list starting with a pair of Del Park invaders--#10 SHIFRA MAGICIAN (6-1) and #9 JERMYN STREET (10-1)—as they both drop in class and have some tactical speed that should allow them first run on #6 FED UP FIRED UP (5-1), who passed a few late last time at Pim in a very fast starter-allowance and will be rolling in the lane. Lastly, I’ll also toss in #3 JUMPIN’ NANCY (12-1), who could offer value after a 6F sprint on the Tapeta at PID in her seasonal debut, and if you dig a bit, you’ll see she was facing tons better on the grass last year, and it’s noteworthy Boyce is here too.
Pk5 A horses: 10,9,6,3
I don’t really trust #2 DANCINGWITHPAYTER (10-1), who enters off an 18-1 upset, but she’s tactical and drew well, and it’s not like the top trio are any great shakes, so doubling up isn’t impossible either. You could basically say the same for #5 CAPUCINE (8-1), who won last time at Del Park, in what was her second start off a long layoff. If #1 DELIGHTFUL LANA (7-2) gets loose she’ll be tough, like she was in winning two-back, but with a lot of heat to her outside, she’s only a B, unless the scratches help her a lot.
Pk5 B horses: 2,5,1
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (5:28 ET) – 3upfm 25k* at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
We’ve got a post position race here, as you don’t want to be too wide going this trip on the GP lawn, as there’s a ridiculously short run to the first turn. We’ve also got a race with a decided lack of speed, which is why I’m hoping for an aggressive ride on #1 SAMMIE SUNSHINE (6-1), who has been coming out of dirt sprints and should be able to make the lead if Zayas wants, and the last time she ran on turf (and only time showing in her PPs), she was a close 4th sprinting against much better. The ones to beat are the steep dropping #3 KYLLA INSTINCT (5-2), though Maragh hasn’t figured her out in two starts off the Attfield claim, and the consistent #6 THINKIN COWTOWN (7-2), who has also been facing better and goes second-off the layoff too.
Pk5 A horses: 1,3,6 (Please note that, to keep the backup tickets down, I’ll be singling #1).
I’m going to go it alone with the top-3, since they seem better than a meek group, and the rest are tough to trust as well. If you’re looking for a few more, then #4 Colonels Daughter (10-1), #7 Lady Greatness (8-1), and #10 Motherwell (20-1) are hardly impossible if the A’s all falter.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R10 (5:55 ET) –3upfm 40 MCL at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
I’m going to go four-deep here, with #10 LIVE AID (10-1) on top, as being a firster in this field isn’t a bad thing, and Voss does a great job on the grass and reaches for Russell, so there could be some intent as well. As for the proven gals, MSW dropping #5 ENGLISH HARRIS (3-1), who was a very fast 3rd two-back and had a nightmare trip last time, might be too much for these at the level, while #6 ECHO OF VICTORY (7-2) has speed and an outside attack post, and adds blinkers off two good 3rd-place runs, and #2 OLD LINE MAGIC (7-2), has been 2nd in both career starts and showed a lot more tactical speed last time, so she could be poised for a breakthrough in what is often the pivotal third career start.
Pk5 A horses: 10,5,6,2
I’m going to call it a day with those four, as they are a cut above, and there’s a chance that ‘Victory is too much for them on the drop and a clear run (especially if ‘Aid needs one), so I don’t want to be spending potentially wasted money on any backups. If you are going a bit deeper, then #8 Wildcattin (8-1) seems best of the rest, though trying turf in your fifth start after four decent dirt runs seems a bit desperate too.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R8 (6:02 ET) – 3up 40k N2L* at 6 1/2 furlongs
The trainer change from Hills to Kassen and a return to dirt sure woke up #6 VERY AMUSING (12-1), who ran off with a fast figure to beat eons lesser last time, and while taking on winners is never easy, the price will be right and the light bulb may have gone on, so I’m coming right back to him. The much more likely winner is #2 CABRE (3-1), who was beaten just a neck trying winners off a five-month layoff last time and will be tough if he doesn’t regress off such a taxing effort.
Pk5 A horses: 6,2
Without a lot of speed there’s a chance that #1 BIG SPENDER (10-1) gets brave and forgets to stop, and while he needs to improve off his neck MCL win last time, he’s got plenty of upside and showed a ton of fight too. I’ll also use #4 HE’S SMOKIN HOT (6-1), who gets the ultimate equipment change and runs as a first-time gelding and should trip out from close range. You can also give a look to #7 Steady Earner (7-2) and #3 Gnarly (9-2), but at underlaid odds without a lot of reason to improve, I’m comfortable letting them beat me.
Pk5 B horses: 1,4
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:34 ET) – 3upfm 20k MCL at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
The finale is darn tricky, since the obvious two best horses and the clear ones to beat—#10 SPANNED (2-1) and #12 BLUESY KITTEN (5-2)—drew terribly and it’s almost as if you have to try and beat them, especially when we’re talking about 20k maiden claimers. I’ll go for the upset with #6 REORGANIZE (12-1), who looked liked a new horse off the layoff last time, when a close but very troubled 4th, in a race you have to think he needed.
Pk5 A horses: 6,10,12
I don’t like anyone else, especially since the favorites might bury this field, so there will be no B’s used. If you want a bit more coverage, then #5 Buttonhook (10-1) and #3 Good Timing Man (10-1) rate the best of the rest.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 10,9,6,3 with 1,3,6 with 10,5,6,2 with 6,2 with 6,10,12 = $288
Leg 1 B Backup: 2,5,1 with 1 with 10,5,6,2 with 6,2 with 6,10,12 = $72
Leg 4 B Backup: 10,9,6,3 with 1 with 10,5,6,2 with 1,4 with 6,10,12 = $96