by Brian Nadeau
July 11, 2019
Let’s once again tackle a Laurel-Gulfstream edition of the Stronach 5, which will have a 100k guarantee, though the pool has been easily surpassing that number each and every week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (4:50 ET) – 3up 5k N3L* at 5 1/2 furlongs
The opener depends on how strongly you feel about the class-dropping #8 GLAD DAD (7-2), who was just a good—and fast—3rd for 8k (and note the 2nd-place finisher came back to win) and just seems like a better horse than this group of 5k runners. It’s also the type of race where, if you’re not sold on the horse to beat, you could go five or six deep and still not have the winner, which really complicates matters. Since I don’t fully trust ‘Dad, I’m going to use one more and be done with it, and hope to survive, so I’ll also add in #6 TOWNIE (8-1), who has some decent form and now goes to local ace Magee, who has been known to move them up, and he seemingly attracts barn rider Correa, who was last on Magee’s #7 Popular Avenue (4-1).
Pk5 A horses: 8,6
Like I said, there are others you can use, but where would you draw the line? Of those, I’d prefer #3 Top Czar (3-1), the aforementioned Popular Avenue, and #10 Wilko’s Goldeneye (10-1), but none of them are very trustworthy.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) –3up 10k MCL at 6 1/2 furlongs
If you need a single then it’s got to be #5 ZITARROSA (8-5), who has run only twice in a raced filled with multiple 0’fers, will run on the dirt for the first time for a tag, enters off a much-improved run on turf, and looks a lot better than a group that doesn’t inspire in the least.
Pk5 A horses: 5
The main danger seems to be #7 Stacksdenero (3-1), who has been 2nd in his last two and isn’t a confirmed refuser at 0-for-7, and figures right there if the chalk falters, but that seems like a lot to ask for and not quite worth what it would cost. Others could include #8 Willie the Whale (9-2), who still has some upside off just three starts, while #6 Aggregate (6-1) will likely take some money on debut for Magee, though this is a 19% barn that is 0-for-19 with firsters.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R7 (5:28 ET) – 3up 16k N3L* at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
Narrowing in the first two legs will allow for a bit more coverage late, and this is the type of race where that’s recommended, as it looks like it could go any number of different ways. There’s a lot to like about #1 CASH CALL KITTEN (8-1), as he drops in class off his return from a 370-day layoff, gets back to the turf, drew perfectly, and has a ton of upside off just four lifetime starts, so here’s hoping he moves up off that comeback he had to need. Obviously #2 SON OF OAHU (5-1) is a must-use since he got back to his best off the De La Cerda claim last time and is another who drew well to be inside. It looks like #6 TIPSY KITTEN (6-1) should enjoy a close-up stalking trip just off the speed after just missing at the level last time, and a repeat would put him right on the line with these. I’m going to begrudgingly put in #9 JAGR (4-1), who is probably the best horse here and has the best figures, but this post is just dreadful, which really leaves him with no margin for error. And lastly, a class drop and good post will also agree with #3 THE MIGHTY JUDGE (20-1), who easily beat N2L’s two-back then was in too tough in an AOC last time.
Pk5 A horses: 1,2,6,9,3
When you go five-deep in an 11-horse field you have to go with the mindset you either have the winner and your handicapping is good enough, or you don’t and it isn’t, so I don’t want to use any more bullets. If you do want more coverage then #5 Summer Spice (12-1) wasn’t far behind ‘Oahu last time, while pure sprinter and tremendous underlay #4 Captain Gaughen (3-1) has the back class to win, though his current form and this unknown distance are obvious concerns.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R8 (6:02 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k N2L at 5 1/2 furlongs
If you’ve followed me here before then you know I’m not a big fan of lifetime N2L horses; i.e. those who aren’t interested in winning a horse race. And that’s the dividing line here, as the class dropping #3 DIXIE TALK (2-1) and #2 HEIDI HO (10-1), are 1-for-5 and 1-for-10, respectively, while the house horses, #8 Bird of Peace (6-1) and #6 Lisa Mila (7-2), are 1-for-18 and 1-for-17, respectively. as a rule, I don’t play those types on top (or on the top line), so it makes this one pretty cut and dry for me.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2
With the above being said, it’s obvious both #8 BIRD OF PEACE and #6 LISA MILA fit with a group like this, as they have been running well at the level with competitive figures, so I’ll use them, while limiting them to backup roles.
Pk5 B horses: 8,6
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:34 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k MCL at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
You never want to be too overconfident, but it sure looks like #5 MISS ANTONELLA (7-2) or #10 SUNSET SUMMER (5-2) have to win the finale, as they lay over a terribly weak field, with the former, who may well be 7-5, making her first start for Joseph, who is a stiff 32% with newcomers to the barn, and the latter, who beat the top pick last time, looking like the only gal with a pulse here.
Pk5 A horses: 5,10
No one else looks remotely close to the top pair, so there’s really no point in wasting bullets on something that isn’t there.
Pk5 B horses:
Main Ticket ($2 play): 8,6 with 5 with 1,2,6,9,3 with 3,2 with 5,10 with = $80
Leg 4 B Backup: 8,6 with 5 with 1,2,6,9,3 with 8,6 with 5,10 = $40