by Brian Nadeau
July 25, 2019
Let’s once again tackle a Laurel-Gulfstream edition of the Stronach 5, which will have a 100k guarantee, though the pool has been easily surpassing that number each and every week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (4:50 ET) – 2f MSW at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
The opener seems impossible, but we do have the benefit of checking the toteboard to see if any of the slew of firsters, who all have some pedigree, are live and taking money, so I encourage you to do your due diligence and give it a look before finalizing your ticket. I’ll spread as deep as I can with the hopes of covering all the logicals, starting with #6 SECURE CONNECTION (6-1), a Janney homebred for was a distant 3rd in an off the turfer on debut at Belmont for McGaughey but is bred to move up on the grass;
#2 BERNADETTE THE JET (4-1), a Motion firster who is a half-sister to Social Inclusion, who was very talented and earned 450k in his brief career; #3 JENN’S THE BOSS (7-2), bet down to 6-5 on debut and should be tighter after speeding off early and tiring to finish 3rd; #9 GIGGLING (8-1), who has plenty of works for Lynch, who is a potent 27% with firsters; and #7 BELLA AUROA (10-1), whose dam was a daughter of BC Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Interest.
Pk5 A horses: 6,2,3,9,7
I’ll play the stats game with #10 THREE SIDED STORY (6-1), who has a huge turf pedigree (she’s by War Front out of a Galileo mare) but Proctor is just 1-for-32 with firsters, so there’s likely not a lot of intent here, from a poor draw too. I’ll also use #1 HELLO BEAUTIFUL (9-2), though that 2nd in her turf debut over the course and distance won’t be enough here, and the rail is no bargain either.
Pk5 B horses: 10,1
Leg 2: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) –3upfm 5k N1X at 7 furlongs
Since I went five-deep on the A-line in the opener, condensing seems in order here, in a race where there aren’t too many different ways to go. I’ll use the current, proven form of #9 MARVELOUS MARTINA (7-2), who should relish getting back to the main track, along with the past form of #2 STEAMY HOT (4-1), who was necked out at the level when last seen in June 2018 but starts for Eppler, who is 18% off this extended break, and we can surmise she’s ready to roll here too, as McCarthy is named to ride.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2
The only other gal I’m remotely interested in is #11 Setubal (6-1), who has solid, if unspectacular, form of late, but has been doing it at two turns and wasn’t a major player at this level here earlier in the year, so she’ll only get the call if one of the top-2 scratch out.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Laurel Park R10 (5:54 ET) – 3upfm 35k MCL at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
It looks like we have a standout here, as #9 BESTATGETTINGBETTER (2-1) dueled and tired in her turf debut off a seven-month layoff against better and should be primed on the cutback, especially since this is just her fourth career start and she’s meets a terribly weak field, even for this reduced level.
Pk5 A horses: 9
I don’t know what to make of #7 Silver Sides (5-2), who would be a huge threat off her runs two and three-back but then bore out badly last time and didn’t run an inch when a well-beaten 7th; if she gets back to her two best, then she’s a must-use, but I have a sneaking suspicion she’s going the wrong way fast, so I’m going to side against her. You could also give a look to #10 Suzettes Star (5-1), a decent 8th two-back in her lone turf start, but she was 59-1 that day, and that’s long gone here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:01 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k N2L at 6 furlongs
Lots of people will be singling #8 SUSIKIN (9-5), since her three races, against much better, lay over this field, especially her lone dirt run two-back, but this steep drop is a worry, and she’ll be way overbet, so sure, she’s an A, but I’m not going it alone with her. There’s some underrated form with #2 LIL BUBBLY (9-2), who drops in class and gets back to the main track, so I’m going to use her at a nice price, especially she’s got some upside off just five lifetime starts.
Pk5 A horses: 8,2
The 8-1 ML and a perfect attack post for her style makes #6 ALPILLES (8-1) appealing, especially since she enters off a good 3rd, in what was her first dirt start for Fernando Abreu, and it’s not like she’ll have to improve that much to have a chance here. I have no idea what to make of #4 Second Illusion (6-1), who has big form/figures for this group but hasn’t been out since April of 2018, but Gonzalez is 0-for-9 off an extended break and the works here are painfully slow, so let’s watch one first. I don’t really know why #9 Return to Favor (7-2) is the second-choice on the ML, as her dirt races just don’t stack up with the top ones here, so I’m more than fine with her proving me wrong.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R10 (6:31 ET) – 2yo 25k MCL at 7 ½ furlongs (turf)
A predictably tough finale, at an odd-ball distance where post position is imperative, and I’d love some coverage, as no one here inspires in the least. I’m going to use five and call it a day; #6 BAMBINO (6-1), #5 EL DUQUE (3-1), #1 HUGOIGO (4-1), and #4 MASPERO (5-2), and #9 CHANNELEDSLONGSHOT (12-1). They all either are dropping from the MSW ranks, have tried turf before, or offer value, and, in a spot like this, that’s good enough.
Pk5 A horses: 6,5,1,4,9
The only other I cold even entertain is #2 ALL D’ HYPE (8-1), another MSW dropper, who hasn’t done any running in two turf starts but has Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom, so let’s toss him in on the back end.
Pk5 B horses: 2
Main Ticket: 6,2,3,9,7 with 9,2 with 9 with 8,2 with 6,5,1,4,9 = $100
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,1 with 9,2 with 9 with 8,2 with 6,5,1,4,9 = $40
Leg 4 B Backup: 6,2,3,9,7 with 9,2 with 9 with 6 with 6,5,1,4,9 = $50
Leg 5 B Backup: 6,2,3,9,7 with 9,2 with 9 with 8,2 with 2 = $20