by Brian Nadeau
July 31, 2019
Let’s once again tackle a Laurel-Gulfstream edition of the Stronach 5, which will have a 100k guarantee, though the pool has been easily surpassing that number each and every week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (5:05 ET) – 3up 16k N2L at 5 1/2 furlongs
I don’t have a strong opinion in the opening leg so I’m going to use the four I think give me the best chance of moving on—#7 MAJOR FLIRT (9-2), a Belmont invader for Rice, who is aces with this type of New York-to-Maryland move; the speedy #4 ZITARROSA (5-1), who runs first time on the dirt off the Robb claim; #6 RIP RAP RALLY (5-1), a class dropper that will like getting back to the dirt and running second-off the layoff; and #3 KING DARIUS (6-1), who aired in the slop to break his maiden off a 14-month layoff last time and won’t have to improve a ton of win right back.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4,6,3
Both #1 KOSHER KONTRACT (4-1) and #9 FORTHEGREATERGOOD (8-1) drop in class and have solid dirt races showing, with the former moving up on the cutback, and the latter having a few decent dirt races sprinkled among his turf form, so, while they don’t make the top line, they are worth having as backups, since neither would be a huge surprise.
Pk5 B horses: 1,9
Leg 2: Laurel Park R9 (5:38 ET) –3up 25k MCL 6 furlongs
If #3 BOURBON AND ICE (3-1) breaks running he may not stop, as he dueled through hot fractions before tiring against better in his debut, and figures to be a lot tighter off than encouraging first start. However, #4 OCEANOGRAPHER (9-2) looks spotted to score for Delacour, who is 18% with firsters and a huge 42% from a 19-horse sample when McCarthy rides, and that 7/12 bullet says he means business today, which is why he gets top honors. If the pace gets too hot up front then #1 BIG BOOTS (5-2) will be a handful late, as he’s run well in some fast races against slightly better and will be closing in the lane.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3,1
I’ll go it alone with the three A’s, though if you’re looking for more coverage then #5 Bourbon Streak (6-1) does have a few fast dirt races to fall back on, while #7 Mice and Men (8-1) did just-miss last time, albeit in a very slow race for the level.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R8 (5:57 ET) – 3upfm 6.25k N3L* at 1-mile
In what looks like a match race, I won’t try and separate #3 MYFRANCESCA (8-5), who goes off the claim for Zerpa (43%) and had winning form already with Pompei, and #4 SLINGIN SAMMY B (9-5), who romped last time for Fawkes and now goes off the claim for Delgado, a 41% move; I’ll put the latter on top, since she has more early speed, though the former is proven at the level, which gives her a big boost.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3
*** Please note that for backup tickets in Leg 4 I’ll be singling #4.
No one else remotely comes close to the form of the top-2, and it’s highly unlikely both regress, so unless there are scratches, I’m not interested in anyone else. Should one come out, the other would still be a single, though #6 Bird of Peace (6-1) would move up, since Dobles is herself 38% off the claim, though this miss still would have work to do to get to either of the favorite’s level.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Laurel Park R10 (6:10 ET) – 3up 25k OC/SAL. at 1-mile (turf)
At the risk of jinxing myself, Leg 4 looks to be pretty straight forward, as #2 MARYLAND PRIDE (5-2) and #8 SEVILLE BARBER (7-2) look better than what seems to be a meek bunch. The former drew better and should trip out, and has been knocking at the door at the level, while the latter is lightly raced and has plenty of upside, and should get first run on ‘Pride.
Pk5 A horses: 2,8
The only turf race showing in #3 BANDITO’S (6-1) PPs was a close 5th behind ‘Pride two-back, and he’ll be a much better price here, so you have to give him an upset look. I don’t understand why #7 JAG (3-1) is this low on the ML, as he was slow beating MCL’ers last time and likely won’t get loose on the lead on the rise, though he’s still worth a backup look. You could also use #1 Toe Curlin’ Kiss (6-1) and #5 Paratycachaca (10-1), though their decided lack of early speed won’t help their chances in the lane.
Pk5 B horses: 3,7
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R (6:29 ET) – 3up 10k N2L at 5 furlongs (turf)
You get sharp turf sprint form with #7 CAPTAIN RON (5-2), dirt speed off the Barboza claim (42%) with #4 VINNIE VAN GO (6-1), and a stalking gear with dirt runner #8 STEADY EARNER (3-1), who was a decent enough 4th going two turns in his lone turf start, so I have to think the winner is here somewhere, as the rest entered don’t seem to stack up.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4,8
No one else really inspires here, as #5 Mister Storm (4-1) looks to be between and a rock and a hard place with speed to his inside and outside, and he’s slow on figures anyway, and #6 Scribe (6-1) was a weak 10th in his last turf start, so it’s tough to think there’s an alternative to the A’s above.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 7,4,6,3 with 4,3,1 with 4,3 with 2,8 with 7,4,8 = $144
Leg 1 B Backup: 1,9 with 4,3,1 with 4,3 with 2,8 with 7,4,8 = $72
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,4,6,3 with 4,3,1 with 4 with 3,7 with 7,4,8 = $72