One more time with feeling, as they say, as Saratoga & Del Mar present closing weeks before the boutiques close for the season. Here's our final submission of summer:
Del Mar Betting Tips
- Flavien Prat is 12-for-22 (55%) riding 2-year-olds at the Del Mar meet. The victories have come with 9 different trainers and 8 of the 12 were first-time starters. His agent is doing his work in the a.m.
- Peter Miller's tank has been dry during closing week of the Del Mar summer meet in recent years. He went 3-for-23 last year and 3-for-21 in 2017. Miller was hitting almost 31% at last year's summer meet heading into the closing week nosedive. Speaking of dry spells, current meet leading trainer Doug O'Neill has gone just 2-for-31 over the past 2 weeks as he tries to hold onto the title.
- Jeff Bonde's barn has gone 5-for-9 over closing week at Del Mar's summer meet in 2017 and 2018, headlined by a 3-for-4 streak last year. The barn has gone 7: 3-1-0 over the past 2 weeks of the current meet, indicating another strong finish.
- Sire Speightstown has had an incredible meet with limited strikes. His offspring are 9: 6-1-0 at the stand with a 4-for-5 record on turf. Twirling Candy offspring in dirt sprints are 6-for-14 (43%) with a $1.96 ROI for each $1 bet.
- Del Mar offers 6 stakes for 2-year-old during closing week. Favorites have hit 44% in Del Mar 2-year-old stakes since 2014. Over the last 6 years, the 12 winners of the G1 Del Mar Debutante and G1 Del Mar Futurity have seen 9 last-out winners – only American Pharoah finished out of the exacta in his previous start.
Saratoga Betting Tips
- If you think Chad Brown has dominated Saratoga 2019 so far, you're not going to get a closing-week reprieve if history repeats. Last year he won 12 races (33%) over the final week at the Spa. No other trainer won more than 4 (Kiaran McLaughlin, who was 4-for-7 during that span). You have to go back to 2015 to find the last time Brown wasn't the winningest trainer during Saratoga's closing week.
- Don't be afraid of a horse who looks crammed back in for a final start at the meet off a disappointing run. Horses who were beaten favorites last time out have come back during closing week to show a flat-bet profit at Saratoga in 2015 ($1.23), 2016 ($1.38) and 2018 ($1.21).
- Favorites went 10-for-17 in stakes last week (59%) though Bill Mott was 0-3 with 3 seconds. Mott's stakes favorites are now a hard-luck 7: 1-5-0 at the meet. Channel Maker's 4th in the Bowling Green was the only to miss the exacta. Note: there will be 10 more stakes closing week at Saratoga.
- The Danny Gargan barn has been absolutely on point with claiming horses at the meet, going 10: 5-1-3 at that level of competition. Those runners have posted a $1.53 ROI for each $1 bet.
- Note that 7 of the last 8 winners of the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes have exited maiden special weight victories (the other, Ralis, came east from a Del Mar stakes bid). Horses who last raced in the Saratoga stakes ranks are 13: 0-3-2 during the past 6 renewals. The closing-day Hopeful will be run Monday.