by Brian Nadeau
September 12, 2019
As if a Stronach 5 on Friday the 13th wasn't enough, there's a $96,000 carryover going in, which means this week's pool could easily surpass $500,000, and possibly even reach $1 million. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I'll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (5:12 ET) – 3up 12.5k claimer at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
The opener is a mixed bad of dirt and turf runners and a few will get played due to their prowess on the former, but I'll stick with the proven grass runners—#5 DELTA OUTLAW (5-1) and #4 WAR STROLL (6-1)—as they seem the most trustworthy off their recent sharp grass form. I think you also need to use #6 CONQUEST SEE YA (9-2), since he drops in class, cuts back, and gets back to the turf, while #3 TRICKY LION (5-1) has been in good form on dirt and ran well against better earlier this year on turf.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4,6,3
There are definitely others you can use here, but more of them are dirt horses (#10 Miners Quest, #7 Lion Lord), or enter off a bad turf run (#9 Greeley Is Back), so I'll go it alone with who I think are the best four turf horses in the race.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R7 (5:25 ET) –3upfm (Fl-bred) N1X at 5 furlongs (turf)
In a race where I don't have a strong opinion and where I can afford to go deep, I'll toss a blanket over the main contenders—#8 AVOCADO TOAST (8-1), #6 SUGAR BOLT (8-5), #3 CAT'S ASTRAY (10-1), #4 TRACY ANN'S LEGACY (3-1), #1 ALL ABOUT STELLA (8-1), and #5 SHESUCHAKNOCKOUT (4-1)—and use them all. The short ML on 'Bolt may sway a lot of people into thinking she's a single, but she's no win machine and others will offer more value, especially 'Toast, who goes off the claim for a white-hot Dibona barn and drops out of an open claimer too.
Pk5 A horses: 8,6,3,4,1,5
The six-pack above should be enough, as the other two entered—#2 Play That Tone (15-1) and #7 Cory Gal (20-1)—will be huge longshots.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:45 ET) – 3upfm 50k starter-allowance at 5 furlongs (turf)
You can argue that #7 WAVERLY WAY (4-1) may be left with to much to do on the cutback, but you can't argue she's clearly the horse to beat off her turf form, which is simply better than a very weak group that is filled with Tapeta and dirt runners who are, for the most part, unproven on the green stuff, which is why she's the stand alone single.
Pk5 A horses: 7
The race flow—there's plenty of speed here—will suit #3 Sarza's (5-1) running style, so she's worth a look, and while I'm not really sure why #1 QUICK SONG (7-2) is lower on the ML than Waverly Way, especially since she's 2-for-25 with 13 underneath finishes, she has run well on her two local Tapeta runs, so you can include her two, but neither have the grass form of 'Way, so they can beat me.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:52 ET) –3upfm SOC (25k/S25k) at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
Nothing like a race where basically every single horse entered looks the same on paper. Usually in circumstances like this I'll look to the pace to see if I can gain an edge, and there's doesn't appear to be a ton here, so I'm going to lean towards those with tactical speed, and that's what #1 GENNIE HIGWAY (6-1) has, and she also has upside, and was a good 3rd at the level when last seen too. I don't have any knocks on the favorite #4 SHE'S DIVINE (5-2), and the drop in class back to a level where she lost by a neck two-back bodes well, but it's not like she has any margin for error either. Turf has really woken up #7 SHAKE D MOON (9-2), and while facing winners is never easy, her fast win last time at Del Park says she's in the ix on the rise.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,7
With a better post I'd have #10 TILAKA (6-1) as an A, but she's really going to need to earn it from out here, though a repeat of her Del Park maiden win gives her a chance. I'm fine sweating #2 Sweeping In (8-1) and #3 Heavenly Hattie (8-1), as the former faces winners and goes off the claim from Motion, while the latter tripped out perfectly two-back (albeit in a VERY key race) and still couldn't crack the top-3.
Pk5 B horses: 10
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:29 ET) – 2yo MSW at 5 furlongs (turf)
One of the reasons I was tight with my B-level backups was this is an impossible race, where we have little to no info on most, and the best proven runner—#2 PARLAY PETE (7-2)—has never run on turf. I'm bringing out the blanker again and using (along with 'Pete) #10 DEO FORTE (4-1), #8 SURPRISE FACTOR (10-1), #6 ETE INDIAN (8-1), and #3 SUDDEN CAPTURE (8-1).
Pk5 A horses: 10,8,2,6,3
The rail is tough, but #1 DISTURBINGTHEPEACE (5-1) goes for a sharp Arriagada barn, so I'll toss him in, while #4 BROTHER REID (6-1) is an Empire Maker that cost $180,000, so that's good enough for me.
Pk5 B horses: 1,4
The tickets: Please note these suggested tickets are a bit over my normal budget, but with such a massive pool looming, this is the right time to peel a few more bills off the bankroll (and we could also see a reduction in price, if there are any scratches).
Main Ticket: 5,4,6,3 with 8,6,3,4,1,5 with 7 with 1,4,7 with 10,8,2,6,3 = $360
Leg 4 B Backup: 5,4,6,3 with 8,6,3,4,1,5 with 7 with 10 with 10,8,2,6,3 = $120
Leg 5 B Backup: 5,4,6,3 with 8,6,3,4,1,5 with 7 with 1,4,7 with 1,4 = $144