by Brian Nadeau
September 19, 2019
Let’s try to squelch the 4-out-of-5 blues in this week’s Stronach 5. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (5:12 ET) – 2yo 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs
While this may look like a typical weak MCL’er, take note that Maryland breds don’t need to be entered for the tag, and with that we get a slew of firsters that look very promising, and are probably best of what looks like an overwise average group. Make sure to check the tote prices before putting in your tickets, as all of them should be live and taking money, and if anyone isn’t, it’s a very bad sign. The foursome of #2 NEXTSTOP POKIPC (4-1), #9 DISTILLED SPIRIT (6-1), #8 PREVAIL UPON (7-2), and #6 MCELMORE AVENUE (6-1) all look talented, have worked well, and go for potent connections, so I’m going to play this like one of them (likely many more than that) can run and is here to win, and therefore will win.
Pk5 A horses: 2,9,8,6
You could use the remaining five, most notably #3 Whiskey and You (9-2), but I’m siding with the connections and apparent talent of the quartet above.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R7 (5:25 ET) –3up (Fl-bred) AOC (12k/N1X) at 6 furlongs
A full field of 12 with plenty of speed means this one could fall apart late, so I’ll try to blow it up with #8 PASSIONATE HACHI (12-1), who has been running against open claimers and will (hopefully) be rolling late when all the heat begins to takes its toll. The other logicals—#7 R MERCEDES BOY (9-2), #1 AWESOME ACTION (7-2), #4 ALLURSTRA (4-1), #6 SPECTRE BOND (6-1), #11 GNARLY (8-1)—all figure and will take plenty of tote support, and have shown hints of rating gears, which seems imperative to success here.
Pk5 A horses: 8,7,1,4,6,11 (Please note that to keep the backup tickets down, I’ll use only 8,7,1,4)
Wiring seems too tough here, so I’m going to use #10 PARTICULARITY (10-1) underneath, even though a repeat of that big win for 10k last time would be good enough here, and he could improve off the Dibona claim (16%)
Pk5 B horses: 10
Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:45 ET) – 3up 20k N2L at 6 furlongs
Golden Gate tripped me up last week, so hopefully I’ll be able to navigate through this one, which, admittedly, looks like a real puzzle. Baker sure got #6 HONEYMOONZ OVER (4-1) to fire off the claim last time, and while he rises in class, that was a big-figure win and he will trip out here. getting back over the local Tapeta should help #4 ROYAL CHARM (10-1), who didn’t fire on dirt last time but looked good winning in good time over starter foes here two-back. What do you do with Del Mar invader #11 PASSIONATE REWARD (3-1), who has never run on synthetic and runs for a tag for the first time? I have to use him, but I wouldn’t want to stand alone with him either. The consistent form of #7 COUNTRY ROAD (5-1) makes him worth a play, especially since he wasn’t far behind ‘Over last time and would be right there if that one regresses.
Pk5 A horses: 6,4,11,7
I don’t fully trust #8 EASY GAME (8-1), who just beat lesser in fast time, but a repeat puts him on the line with these, and the price will be right to at least use him as a secondary play.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:52 ET) –3upfm 5k N4L* at 1-mile
Tough sledding here, as the entire field of nine looks about the same on paper (very slow) and tough to separate. The tactical speed of #9 MAJESTIC PIC (9-2) makes her very playable, as there’s not a lot of pace here, while #3 DEAR CHARLOTTE (5-1), who beat her by a nose last time, also has some early foot. I guess #6 BOOM BOOM GONE (7-2) makes sense, and she does enter off a 7 1/2-length win at Timonium, though her Laurel races are more miss than hit.
Pk5 A horses: 9,3,6
The improving pattern of #1 LETMESLIDEBYYOU (8-1) makes her a price player, and she’s got some hidden form too, as she tossed her rider three-back then probably needed her return, so if you focus on the Timonium 5th last time, or the Pimlico 4th in May, then she’s a player. I know #4 Postino’s Secret (6-1) beat my top-2 picks last time, but she has no speed at all, so I’ll make her back it up.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:29 ET) – 2yo (Fl-bred) 50k MCL at 6 furlongs
I’ve been spreading deep in the earlier four legs because I have a single here in #1 HENRY’S WORLD (3-1), who was favored on debut, caught slop, tangled with the winner, then relented late, but meets what looks like a below average group here, and O’Connell is 21% with second-out maidens, so he figures to move forward in a big way.
Pk5 A horses: 1
There are others you can use here, as #5 Silver Connection (9-2) and #2 Frank First (15-1) take the MSW drop, while #6 Realtor Danny D (6-1) has a slew of works for his debut, and #7 He’s Lucky (15-1) and #8 Smash (7-2) ran OK against open MCL’ers on debut, but I’ll stand alone with ‘World.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 2,9,8,6 with 8,7,1,4,6,11 with 6,4,11,7 with 9,3,6 with 1 = $288
Leg 2 B Backup: 2,9,8,6 with 10 with 6,4,11,7 with 9,3,6 with 1 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,9,8,6 with 8,7,1,4 with 8 with 9,3,6 with 1 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,9,8,6 with 8,7,1,4 with 6,4,11,7 with 1 with 1 = $64