by Brian Nadeau
October 9, 2019
Back to battle with this week’s Stronach 5, which continues to be one of the best bets on the track. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (4:33 ET) – 2yof MSW at 1-mile
A fun race to kick off the sequence, and one you probably want to remember the names from, as there appears some talent here and it looks like a potential key-race in the making. Being a Godolphin 2yo these days is a very good thing, and it looks like #4 EMBOSSED (8-1) has been working well for her debut for Stidham, who is 16% with firsters, and this miss is kin to some nice ones, stakes winner Lucullan being tops. The Delacour stats (20% with second-out maidens) say #8 BARBARA GORDON (7-2) is going to improve off her debut, and if that’s the case the rest are in trouble, as she was a solid 2nd sprinting at Laurel, and, as a daughter of Commissioner, should relish the added ground she gets today. I’ll also use #10 WINDFALL PROFIT (9-2), as she was facing eons better on the grass in two NY starts, is bred for the main track, and Shug has used this move down 95-South with plenty of success in the past. Lastly, I’ll toss in #7 ETANA (6-1), who had no chance after breaking very slow and last from the rail on debut at Parx, but note she was 8-5 that day and Breen is a strong 22% with second-out maidens, so off the experience builder, from a much better post, she may wake up and surprise.
Pk5 A horses: 4,8,10,7 (listed in order of preference)
I’m going to use the top-4 and call it a day, with the caveat that #2 Omni Diva isn’t too live for Butch Reid, who is 19% with firsters and 26% when Correa rides. There are others, like #3 Wonder City (5-1), #1 Orbette (15-1), and #5 Looking Dynamic (6-1), but they all to appear to be looking up at the quartet above, who have more upside than they do as well.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:43 ET) –2f 35k MCL at 6 furlongs (turf)
The two best proven runners—#1 ITSENOUGH (5-2) and #4 NA NA DUDE (3-1)—seem like must-use types, as there’s not much here and their two dirt races lay over the field; however, I’ll also use #9 DANCE DUNE (8-1), who was a distant 9th on debut in a fast turf MSW and is bred for this, though she also figures in the 7-2 range.
Pk5 A horses: 4,1,9
Even though #6 NOT ANOTHER (4-1) was a slow 4th on debut against Florida breds, she did pass a few late and can improve, so I’ll use her as a backup.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Leg 3: Santa Anita R3 (5:05 ET) –3up Cal-bred MSW at 1-mile (turf)
I’m not a big fan of singling lifetime maidens, though it looks like #5 COOL YOUR JETS (2-1) has finally found a field he can beat, as any of his last several are simply better than anything this field has done, and he’s supposed to improve second-off a January layoff. However, he’s also 0-for-10 for a reason, and the fact that #2 JETOVATOR (5-2) gets back to the turf and look like a Lone F means the streak could continue, as he looks like a better horse than the one that ran well on turf twice to start his career and may forget to stop.
Pk5 A horses: 2, 5
If nothing else #1 FRAVEL (5-2) has some upside off just two modest runs to start his career, and he adds blinkers to and he drew perfectly, so I’ll include him underneath.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 4: Laurel Park R8 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm 40k 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)
I’m going to be bold here and single #3 CRAZED (3-1), as this looks like the type of race where you can use five or six and still not win, and when that’s the case, I’m a fan of taking a shot on a horse I like best and hoping I’m right. And, with this one, there are some angles at play, most notably Gorham doesn’t claim many, but is 5-for-23 when he does, so you’re allowed to think this one moves up off that big win last time at Del Park, plus, he’s either the controlling speed or will be involved in what looks like a relatively soft pace, so I’ll play for the double up and hold my breath.
Pk5 A horses: 3
As I hinted at above, there are plenty of others you can use here, and I’m not hard-headed enough to not have any backups, but the problem is, if I used them in the conventional sense, and with my other A’s, then I’d have a ticket that would be exponentially bigger than my main ones. So, with that being said, I’m going to use #5 UNEQUIVOCAL (6-1), #4 RIP RAP RILEY (7-2), #10 MAKING THE RULES (6-1), and #11 MEO DESPERADO (8-1), but will have to really condense around them—so I’ll be using 4,8—4,1,9—2,5—and 1.
Pk5 B horses: 5,4,10,11
Leg 5: Santa Anita R4 (5:40 ET) – 3up 20k MCL at 5 1/2 furlongs
I’d like to think we can use #1 TRUST REWARD (7-2), #3 RINESHAFT (5-2), and #5 HARLISS (2-1) and get through, and that’s the order I prefer them as well, since the former makes his first start for O’Neill (25%) off a useful LRC debut, while ‘Rine has run well in both starts and may be ready to make a big move forward, and the latter has already had eight chances and is tough to trust, though he does run as a first-time gelding.
Pk5 A horses: 1,3,5
I’ll go it alone on the top line, though #4 Fortnite Dance (6-1) could move forward with blinkers and has a few races showing that could threaten here, and #6 U S Hero (8-1) woke up a bit in his last and wouldn’t be impossible with another forward move.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Main Ticket: 4,8,10,7 with 4,1,9 with 2,5 with 3 with 1,3,5 = $76
Leg 2 B Backup: 4,8,10,7 with 6 with 2,5 with 3 with 1,3,5 = $24
Leg 3 B Backup: 4,8,10,7 with 4,1,9 with 1 with 3 with 1,3,5 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 4,8 with 4,1,9 with 2,5 with 5,4,10,11 with 1 = $48