by Brian Nadeau
October 17, 2019
Back to battle with this week’s Stronach 5, which continues to be one of the best bets on the track. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (4:19 ET) – 3up N1X at 1-mile (turf)
A deep field in the opening leg, though there are several who can’t win, which helps narrow things down a bit. Post position is also at a premium here, so tread lightly if you’re keying on someone who is drawn outside. I’m going to use a four-pack and hope to survive, as both #1 TOM HAGEN (5-1) and #2 HE’S ONE WILD DUDE (8-1) have proven local form and tactical speed, and drew best of all, while #9 ROHRBACHER (5-1) was a good 3rd against slightly lesser here last time and now goes off the Farrior claim (24%), and #7 HARDREDCANDY (8-1) is better than the Del Park run last time, behind a repeat winner, from a very wide draw.
Pk5 A horses: 9,1,2,7 (listed in order of preference)
If #11 FLOWMOTION (7-2) was drawn better he’d be a must-use A, but this is a terrible post, plus Cibelli is just 1-for-25 at the meet, and this one has lost six straight since she claimed him, so you get the picture. If you want more, then #8 My Brothersledge (10-1) would figure off his best form, but he was eased with no apparent excuse last time, so he’s tough to trust. A wildcard would be #12 Don Jupp (20-1), since I have a lot of respect for the job Franny Abbott does, but this Euro import literally didn’t run an inch in his US debut last time, which is a big worry.
Pk5 B horses: 11
Leg 2: Santa Anita R2 (4:30 ET) – 2yo 30k MCL at 1-mile
With only six entered, I’ll be a bit aggressive and use just #5 BEYOND PRECHER (6-1), who has only been competitive once, and that was at this trip, and he could trip out nicely, and #3 COLOR WAR (8-5), who stretches out and adds blinkers, and should be pressing the rail from the outside, and will get first run on the top pick.
Pk5 A horses: 5,3
I could easily use #1 GORKY PARK (2-1) as an A, but I fear that ‘War will be pressing him the entire way, which will really hurt his chances, and probably makes him tire in the lane.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 3: Gulfstream Park West R8 (4:43 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k MCL at 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)
When you have a race littered with lifetime maidens and a slew of lightly raced runners with plenty of upside, there’s really only one way to go, so I’ll use #2 PANAMOKA (3-1), #6 TRINNI CUTIE PIE (12-1), and #1 POWER ESCAPADE (6-1), as they all drew well, have only run five times combined, and all seemed poised to improve.
Pk5 A horses: 2,6,1
I could use others, most notably #5 Truly (8-1), but she hasn’t been out since February, drops stiffly, and changes barns, and was 64-1 when last seen, so the flags are up. Lifetime maidens #4 Allez Allez (6-1) and #10 Machita (4-1) both have races that could win this, but at 0-for-17 and -for-16 respectively, there’s no reason to think today is the day.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:50 ET) – 2yo 25k MCL at 6 furlongs
Tough sledding here, with no standouts, but it looks like #4 COLUMBIAN CRUISER (6-1) has a big chance on the MSW drop and barn change to France, who is 4-for-11 on the year, while #10 CAJUN BETTER (5-2) goes back to the main track and drops, and the only time he ran for a tag here he just missed in 2nd, with a figure that would easily win this.
Pk5 A horses: 4,10
You could use plenty here, but to keep the ticket size down I’ll go with just #1 CRACK A COLD ONE (7-2) since he does exit a very fast (for this group) debut 3rd, though it was for 12.5k and he drew poorly. The wildcard is #3 Brock On By (5-1) for a sharp Lucarelli barn, but those Emerald runs were on the main track, so he’s an unknown here, while Cal-bred MSW dropper #8 Street Jazz (9-2) would be no surprise, and run as a first-time gelding as well.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Leg 5: Laurel Park R9 (5:25 ET) – 2yof MSW at 1-mile (turf)
I think there are two standouts in the finale—#2 LA CROIX VALER (6-1) and #10 OUR LITTLE JEWEL (3-1)—and about five others who could win if they falter, so we need to be a little creative to fit them all in. As for the top pair, the former was a closer 3rd on debut at Monmouth for Stidham, who is 28% with second-time maidens, while the latter has been facing tons better in NY and should relish the class drop, so they’ll stand alone on the top line.
Pk5 A horses: 2,10
The others—#4 PRINCESS CADEY (7-2), #5 LA BABIA (15-1), #7 ROMA DELIGHT (9-2), #3 YLIKEDIS (6-1), and #8 SUMMER KISS (8-1) all have their merits, but their warts too, so they are only going to be used in a supporting role. And, since using them in the proper B fashion would cost way too much, I need to be creative, which means I have to knock down the A’s in the first four legs. So, with that being said, I’ll use 9,1 with 5 with 2,6,1 with 4,10 leading into this race.
Pk5 B horses: 4,5,7,3,8
Main Ticket: 9,1,2,7 with 5,3 with 2,6,1 with 4,10 with 2,10 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 11 with 5,3 with 2,6,1 with 4,10 with 2,10 = $24
Leg 2 B Backup: 9,1,2,7 with 1 with 2,6,1 with 4,10 with 2,10 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 9,1,2,7 with 5,3 with 2,6,1 with 1 with 2,10 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 9,1 with 5 with 2,6,1 with 4,10 with 4,5,7,3,8 = $60