by Jeff Siegel
October 20, 2019
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Sunday, October 20, 2019
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Meso; 3-Discreet Diva
Forecast: The opener, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming router for fillies and mares, drew just five entrants, so there’s not much we can do with it. Meso returns from the Bay Area, takes a realistic drop in class, has won over this main track in the past, and may inherit the role as the controlling speed in a race that has little of it. We’ll also toss in Discreet Diva, much slower on speed figures that Meso but making her third start off a layoff and likely to produce another forward move with F. Prat riding her back.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bodhicitta; 4-Unicorn
Forecast: Trainer Richard Baltas has this race surrounded. Unicorn appeared to be spinning her wheels over the deep Santa Anita main track when third without mishap in a similar maiden miler just eight days ago and is wheeled back quickly while returning to her preferred surface, turf. The daughter of Bodemeister hit the board in two prior outings over the local lawn and on speed figures simply should be better than these. We’ll prefer her on top but Baltas’ other starter, Bodhicitta, can be included in rolling exotic play as well. The English import can turn it on late and was a close fourth from out of the clouds in her most recent outing in mid-August at Del Mar. She’s a nine-race maiden but seems to be headed in the right direction.
RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Camby has been chasing tougher first-level allowance runners without success recently but today takes a realistic class drop into a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer and appears to have found his friends. The Candy Ride gelding has placed twice in four previous outings over the Santa Anita main track, has the proper style for this extended sprint trip, and is reunited with “win rider” J. Talamo while owning speed figures that are more than good enough to beat this field. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Commanding Chief; 5-Go Daddy Go; 7-Never Easy
Forecast: Four of the seven entrants exit the same race, the Sept. 29 event won by Mo Forza. Each are in various stages of development so we’ll see if one of them can produce a significant forward move in this maiden turf miler. Go Daddy Go, in his first start in more than a year (and just his second career start), finished seventh, beaten five lengths at 30-1 in that race but appeared a bit green and certainly had a right to need the outing. He’s the type of colt that should benefit greatly with the race under his belt and with the addition of blinkers so with A. Gryder riding him back let’s take a shot with the son of Scat Daddy, who may have more room to improve than the others. Never Easy, second in that Mo Forza race, should be on or near a soft pace and may not have to improve much to win. He’s never taken a backward move in five starts according to his speed figures and as a son of Candy Ride figures to continue to improve with experience and maturity. Commanding Chief has hit the board in four of his five career starts and retains F. Prat. Third in that common race, the son of Will Take Charge is a one-paced grinder but should draft into a stalking position and have every chance. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three.
RACE 5: Post 2:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Raging Whiskey; 2-Strongconstitution
Forecast: Strongconstitution was very impressive winning his debut at Del Mar in August and has trained nicely in the interim for D. O’Neill. Though his win was accomplished on grass, the son of Constitution actually is bred to prefer dirt, so the switch in surface is of little concern. He’s a fit on speed figures in this sprint stakes for juveniles based on his maiden win alone and certainly is eligible to improve as he gains experience. Raging Whiskey didn’t act at all when tried (again) on turf in the Speakeasy Stakes two weeks ago but he’s back on dirt today, clearly his preferred surface. His runaway win at Los Alamitos in the Capote Stakes in September makes him the one to beat in this affair. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Strongconstitution on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Goalie; 5-Much More Halo; 7-Rookie Mistake
Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s use three first-time starters in this wide open turf sprint for juveniles. Rookie Mistake is especially intriguing. As a son of Square Eddie he really should love the grass, and while his workout times haven’t been off the charts he’s done everything in the morning like a nice prospect for the D. O’Neill barn. A healthy series of steady drills should have him fit and ready and a bullet three furlong drill from the gate just four days ago really catches the eye. Much More Halo has done some good work in the morning, and as a son of More Than Ready it makes perfect sense that he’s debuting on grass. A $300,000 OBS March Sales purchase, the B. Baffert-trained colt is certain to attract plenty of play. Goalie has been working nicely for P. D’Amato without being asked for much in a series of easy training track team drills. He might be a down-the-road type but the son of Bodemeister definitely has some ability and may be worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.
RACE 7: Post 3:47 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Proverb makes his West Coast debut in a first-level allowance race after finishing third in a pair of competitive Midwest stakes events, most recently in the Matt Winn S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in June behind Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-bound Mr. Money. Obviously, this is a considerably softer spot, so the son of Flatter, now in the R. Baltas barn, seems well-spotted to regain his winning form. Though he went six weeks without a workout between mid-August and late-September, three nice recent drills give every indication that he’s fit and ready. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post 4:19 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-If Id Told You; 6-One Fast Bro; 8-Tropical Terror
Forecast: One Fast Bro was victimized by a brutal trip when fifth across the wire in a similar maiden turf miler for juveniles last month and with clear sailing today the son of Coil should be able to show his best stuff. He was ready to pounce on the leaders at the head of the lane but clipped heels, nearly dropped his rider, lost his action, and then veered out and caused a foul that resulted in his disqualification from fifth to ninth. We’ll give him another chance. If Id Told You is a son of Creative Cause with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern. His pedigree that should allow him to improve going long on the lawn and the G. Mandella-trained colt switches to T. Baze while projecting to be within striking range throughout. Also worth tossing in is somewhere is the first-timer Tropical Terror. He’s bred for grass, shows a healthy work tab, and lands a hot rider in A. Cedillo. The J. Cassidy newcomer won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive in this state-bred affair.